The forthcoming URC match between Leinster and Munster at Croke Park, happening Saturday at 5.45 and broadcast live on RTÉ 2 and Premier Sports 1, possesses an undeniable appeal that keeps enduring after 16 seasons since the historical Heineken Cup semi-final. This game saw a ‘club game’ world record attendance. Now, they are back at Croke Park, ready to innovate and break new records.
As a landmark moment in the competition’s development, tonight’s sold-out event in Croke Park, welcoming almost 81,000 spectators, is set to be the largest crowd in the URC’s 23-year history, transcending all previous versions of the competition.
This clash offers a once-in-a-generation spectacle, although unfortunately, both teams aren’t at full strength. This, no doubt, will be a source of disappointment not least for the seasoned players who are missing out. For Peter O’Mahony and others, this game would have been an unparalleled opportunity, being too early for him in that iconic 2009 semi-final as well as Ireland’s Croke Park occupancy from 2007 to 2010.
Munster’s senior team is notably diminished, with 16 members injured, creating noticeable gaps, especially with the outer three and the prop. Nonetheless, Seán O’Brien, having been cleared from the Emerging Ireland tour, will begin on the wing, along with the now fit Alex Nankivell in midfield. Due to the absence of Oli Jager, Stephen Archer is set to return while Gavin Coombes assumes his usual number eight role, pushing Jack O’Donoghue to the blindside. Both Tom Ahern and Ruadhán Quinn rejoin the team following injuries, bolstering the bench alongside 22-year-old academy prop Kieran Ryan, set to receive his fourth cap.
As with Munster, Leinster are hampered by injuries,, particularly to the back three, with Jimmy O’Brien joining Tommy O’Brien and Jordan Larmour on the injury list. Likewise, the hooker position has taken a hit, with Dan Sheehan and the recently operated Rónan Kelleher likely to miss the Autumn Nations Series for Ireland.
In line with alterations due to necessity, creative and expert midfielder Liam Turner is being utilised in the right wing position. Additionally, Lee Barron is set to begin at hooker, with James Ryan reappearing with RG Snyman. Last season’s Irish Under-20 hooker, Gus McCarthy, who might have questioned his rugby playtime this season above UCD in the AIL, is consequently listed on the bench after initiating Leinster’s first pair of games and participating in a duo of Emerging Ireland tour matches prior to his departure.
Cian Healy, Max Deegan, Luke McGrath, along with Harry Byrne, are also making a comeback to a bench which includes Ross, Harry’s sibling. Despite these changes, Leinster still enters this match sporting 13 internationals in their first XV and an additional six on the bench. This lineup includes nine or 10 individuals who would generally be regarded as Irish top picks, as well as their twice World Cup victor Snyman.
Munster sports 11 internationals in their XV, including their Springbok World Cup champion Jean Kleyn and a couple more on the bench. However, merely three would ordinarily be regarded as Irish top picks. This usually offers the men in red an increased incentive to demonstrate their prowess. One of the inherent appeal factors for this match is the multiple underlying narratives, which continue to be plentiful.
The most evident being incumbent Jack Crowley in opposition to Durban’s match victor Ciarán Frawley. However, other noteworthy matchups include James Lowe fighting off Calvin Nash, Jamison Gibson-Park squaring up to Craig Casey and James Ryan versus Tadhg Beirne. Not to mention, Snyman against Kleyn, comrades from the Boks’ Bomb Squad. Casey, John Hodnett, Gavin Coombes and more will all undoubtedly be eager to play out their individual confrontations.
Snyman’s shift between Munster and Leinster is not unprecedented. Jacques Nienaber and Tyler Bleyendaal have previously followed a similar trajectory while Denis Leamy has retraced his steps in the reverse direction. Munster’s captain Beirne, accompanying Jeremy Loughman, Jager and Tom Farrell, all began their rugby careers with Leinster.
Leo Cullen, on yesterday, mentioned that while Munster’s coaching crew remains “settled”, Nienaber and Bleyendaal were not present in last season’s equivalent Aviva match.
At the match in question, Munster demonstrated their prowess early on with a stunning try, anmagical execution by Simon Zebo, and concluded by Casey. However, Zebo has since hung up his boots and together with Snyman and Joey Carbery departing, their absence is a blow to Munster, especially with the promising addition of Thaakir Abrahams.
A notable victory in the recent past for Munster was against Leinster in the penultimate game two campaigns ago, concluded by Crowley’s drop goal post a pitch-length drive, a significant boost to their rivalry as otherwise, it has been Leinster dominating with 12 victories in the recent 13 URC challenges.
That said, it’s common knowledge that Munster often exceeds the collective potential of their players, with Leinster, being in stronger form and expected to win by a 14-point margin this time around. Leinster’s scrum is indeed robust and players including Caelan Doris, Jack Conan, Snyman, Lowe among others might play a crucial role by securing swifter ball possession in upcoming matches.
As is always, the anticipation is high and the game is never a bore.
As for the lineups, Leinster fields Hugo Keenan, Liam Turner, Garry Ringrose, Jamie Osborne, James Lowe; Ciarán Frawley, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Lee Barron, Tadhg Furlong; RG Snyman, James Ryan; Jack Conan, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris (captain) as their main squad.
The replacements include Gus McCarthy, Cian Healy, Thomas Clarkson, Ryan Baird, Max Deegan, Luke McGrath, Ross Byrne, and Harry Byrne.
Munster, on the other hand, fields Mike Haley, Calvin Nash, Tom Farrell, Alex Nankivell, Sean O’Brien; Jack Crowley, Craig Casey; Jeremy Loughman, Niall Scannell, Stephen Archer; Jean Kleyn, Tadhg Beirne (captain); Jack O’Donoghue, John Hodnett, Gavin Coombes as their main squad.
The reserves include Diarmuid Barron, Kevin Ryan, John Ryan, Tom Ahern, Ruadhán Quinn, Conor Murray, Tony Butler, and Shay McCarthy. The referee assigned for the match is Chris Busby from IRFU.
In the context of URC encounters, out of the 50 matches played, Leinster has prevailed 34 times while Munster has won 16 times.
In recent encounters spanning 2022 to 2024, Leinster recorded victories over Munster four times out of five, while Munster secured a slender triumphant lead in a semi-final. The recent performances of Leinster witnessed wins against Edinburgh, Dragons, and Benetton both at home and away matches. On the other hand, Munster experienced mixed fortunes with victories against Connacht and Ospreys at home but a defeat against Zebre Parma away.
The odds of the game are pointing favourably toward Leinster with a 1-10 chance whereas Munster’s victory odds lie at a distant 13-2. A draw has been given a 25-1 probability. Subsequently, in the handicap odds where Munster has a grace of +14 points, both teams have odds of victory at 10-11 with the possibility of a tie at 20-1.
The prediction of the match leans toward Leinster seizing the victory.