The recent unanticipated electoral blow to India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), a Hindu nationalist faction, largely stems from the upper echelon’s arrogance and their short-sightedness in dealing with the pressing economic problems impacting innumerable citizens.
During an arduous campaigning duration of close to seven weeks, Modi and Amit Shah, the country’s home minister and Modi’s confidant and counsellor, positioned themselves as the primary determinants of the BJP’s trajectory. This move sidelined other party leaders inciting intraparty disputes and distancing the harsh right-wing Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) or National Volunteer Corps chiefs, the founders of BJP as its political division in 1980 who provided it with campaigners that energise voters during the polls.
The spiritual tutoring provided by RSS to BJP has held considerable sway over the party’s upper echelon for many years; defiance often comes at a significant price as Modi has now found out, with declining voter participation.
Throughout the rigorous seven-week campaign, both Modi and Shah brazenly overlooked voters’ growing concerns, such as escalating unemployment rates amongst the youth, surging cost of living, and runaway inflation. Instead, they focused on promoting BJP’s Hindutva or Hindu dominance mission across India using frequent speeches that fuelled Islamophobia. They targetted India’s approximate 200 million Muslims that constitute around 15% of the 1.4 billion populace of the country, using derogatory terms likening them to intruders or terrorists – a sentiment that had scant echo among the voters.
The leadership duo unnerved voters by vowing to wage war against their nuclear-armed neighbour Pakistan, to reclaim one-third of the contentious Kashmir territory in the Himalayas should they emerge victorious. Shah claimed last week that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal did not intimidate BJP.
Modi also misjudged the capabilities of the 26-member Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) opposition, which ran a comprehensive and united campaign.
Some political analysts are optimistic that a weaker BJP as part of a coalition could have a positive influence on India’s internal political, social and religious spheres. They argue that a coalition might bring about a resurgence of the usefulness of parliamentary debates and examination.
This could, to a degree, halt the push of BJP’s Hindu majoritarian tendencies and the replacement of additional mosques with temples. It could also potentially curb Modi’s broad control over governance and his inclination towards restrictions on press freedom, civil liberties and activists for human rights.
Moreover, a less powerful BJP might slow down the enactment of controversial laws like the Citizenship Amendment Act, which sparked riots resulting in many fatalities in the past. The Act, which provided amnesty to illegal immigrants from nearby countries but excluded Muslims, sparked significant controversy.
Regarding plans by the BJP to launch a Uniform Civil Code that might usurp India’s religion-specific civil laws, which citizens perceive as encroaching on their religious practices, the process might also be delayed. The code outlines rules regarding marriage, divorce and inheritance.
Despite BJP leaders’ confidence in Modi’s chances of securing a historic third term as India’s Prime Minister at the helm of the multiparty National Democratic Alliance, whispers within the party suggest a potential replacement due to his perceived inflexibility in alliance management.