The upcoming election in India, which spans an extensive 41 days and engages 490 million voting citizens, is deemed to have a predictable outcome. It is vastly anticipated that the incumbent Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, will secure a comprehensive victory for his third term. It also appears that his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to gain an even stronger representation in parliament compared to 2019.
The key drivers of Modi’s anticipated success can be attributed to his profound personal appeal and notable economic progress. Since his initial term, India’s stock market value has tripled and the country’s economy has nearly doubled. Modi himself refers to India as the “epitome of democracy”, and his endeavours have been largely influenced by this belief. However, this has not been without controversy, with a considerable scale back on free speech and suppression of opposition parties. Allegations of politically motivated corruption and tax cases against opposition MPs and leaders have been rampant, which unfortunately casts doubt over India’s democratic standing.
The most current instance involves Arvind Kejriwal, the Aam Aadmi party leader and Delhi’s chief minister since 2015, who’s been incarcerated over supposed fraudulent activities concerning alcohol sales. Further, the Congress, one of India’s principal opposition parties, has had its bank accounts frozen by the tax authorities, impeding its campaigning efforts.
The BJP, on the other hand, claims innocence, with Modi stipulating that the Enforcement Directorate (ED), responsible for most of the investigations, preserves its independence, despite the fact that 95% of its political cases are filed against the opposition.
Modi’s advocacy of a Hindu nationalist agenda in a nation composed of 80% Hindus has triggered anti-Muslim sentiments and violence, undermining the secular standpoint of its politics, originally influenced by Nehru. There’s a clear shift towards a Hindu-majoritarianism approach, upheld by the BJP’s populist welfarist agenda that resonates with India’s poorer segments. As per a recent Pew poll, 67% of those surveyed indicated that they favour a “strong leader” capable of making decisions independent of the parliament or court interventions.
The reign of assertive leaders like Viktor Orbán and Recep Erdogan and their propagation of “illiberal democracies”, continues.