The recent proclamation from the Finance Minister, Jack Chambers, indicating a shift in the budget’s timeline by one week has sparked increased conjecture over an upcoming autumn general election. Originally scheduled for October 8th, the budget will now be delivered on October 1st.
The sequence, according to widespread speculation, seems poised as follows: The hefty budget will be released on October 1st, a stripped-down finance bill (referred to as a ‘bikini’ bill that addresses only the necessary elements) and a quick social welfare bill reflecting the stipulations of the budget would be promptly passed in the Dáil. This process is estimated to take about two to three weeks. By October 18th or 25th, the Dáil would dissolve, paving way for a three- or four-week election campaign, culminating in a voting day on November 8th or 15th.
Chambers reassured the public on Thursday that the current Government intends to complete its full term, echoing the sentiment shared by other leaders whenever the question arises. However, it’s believed that it would still be conceivable after the budget delivery for the Coalition to announce that their political contributions as the existing Government have concluded and there’s no real need to linger for another quarter.
Any disputes regarding the proposed timing of the election would likely only cause temporary disruption, as the election debate would surely progress rapidly. The Government could plausibly provide a justified explanation for an early election as suggested above, ensuring that the public’s perception is favourable.
Notably, a couple of weeks ago, Michael McGrath informed the National Economic Dialogue that the budget would be delivered as per usual on October 8th. However, this instance serves as a reminder that dates are subject to change.
The motivations for organising an early election are not only apparent to those within the government’s core decision-making entity, but also to those of us outside its circle. One of the reasons is that prolonging the process to the bitter end increases your vulnerability to unforeseen events and restricts your flexibility. This is particularly risky if it coincides with the early spring months (February/March), a period historically detrimental to the last two Fine Gael-led governments.
Another key reason relates to Sinn Féin, the main competitor to the Government. After suffering a letdown in the local and European elections held in June, the party is uncertain about its fundamental support ratio, the number of candidates it should field and where, its key messaging, and whether it should position itself as a potential responsible government or a force for radical, transformative change.
Sinn Féin will address these issues through an internal mechanism and will reorganise – as it has done in the past. However, limiting its recovery time benefits the Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael alliance significantly.
Consequently, it is in the Government’s best interest to hold an autumn election. Choosing not to do so would equate to political self-sabotage. This is the reason why, with the budget being expedited, the Government’s actions will speak volumes.