The Daily Telegraph reported a surge of migrants into Ireland as a result of threats from Rwanda, according to its front page headline last Friday. The British newspaper, known for its Conservative leanings, cited figures recently released by the Irish government indicating that 80% of the asylum seekers recently arriving in Ireland came via Northern Ireland.
The Telegraph highlighted comments by the Tánaiste Micheál Martin, connecting the migrant influx to a contentious UK policy to deport migrants to Rwanda, a central African nation. This policy garnered approval in Westminster earlier in the week. Martin speculated in the Telegraph that this might be the intended consequence of such a policy.
The article expressed apprehension regarding the issue of an open border with the Republic, additionally considering the impact of a disputed immigration policy in a nearby country and the resultant migrant movement.
Simon Harris, the Taoiseach, voiced to the Îireachtas Finance Committee on Wednesday that the Irish appreciate common sense. He emphasized importance of communicating to the nation’s denizens that the country operates a migration system grounded on rules.
Harris’ comment came a day following an uneven performance by the Minister for Justice, Helen McEntee, at the Oireachtas justice committee. McEntee failed to confidently clarify to Independent TD Michael McNamara why asylum seekers hadn’t been returned to nations prepared to receive them. She also avowed a claim that underscored the Telegraph’s report three days later; over 80% of asylum seekers in Ireland are believed to arrive via the Northern Border.
Citizens expecting a migration system governed by rules and pragmatism might find themselves confounded. The notion of an inadequately controlled border, or an inefficient system for handling unsuccessful applications, contradicts current political sentiment on immigration.
McEntee previously defended Ireland’s commitment to adopting the EU’s migration and asylum pact to the committee prior to these incidents. Nevertheless, Cabinet associates currently perceive her as becoming increasingly central in the ongoing immigration debate.
One Minister has remarked that the political epicentre has shifted towards Justice, pulling focus away from Roderic O’Gorman, the Minister for Integration. This shift coincides with Helen McEntee’s looming possibility of becoming a critical political pivot.
The ongoing provision of housing for 100,000 refugees and asylum seekers by the State underscores a reshifting emphasis onto Border matters. This includes the process of immigration into the country and the subsequent arrangements.
Simmering migration tensions that increasingly tend to explode underscore the unparalleled pressure being exerted on migration. A popular assumption within top-tier Government entities is that a sizeable section of marked individuals are moving across the Border – an issue that has been a topic of progressive discourse for the past few weeks.
The suggestive 80% figure isn’t grounded in solid data. Even British officials scrambled to understand the basis of McEntee’s assertion after it was made. When queried, the British embassy responded with a curt one-liner, affirming the high-level collaboration between the UK and Ireland regarding migration, asylum and border security.
In truth, this figure represents a derivation from the percentage of individuals seeking asylum at Mount Street’s International Protection office in Dublin. The surge in applications recorded at this office over recent months is the source of this figure, rather than any port of entry details. This is a form of indirect measurement, underpinned by the Justice Department officials’ firm conviction that most asylum claims at Mount Street originate from individuals crossing the Border.
Data from the Justice Department suggest 5,161 applications up to the end of March. This implies that the majority of these applications – over 4,100- were lodged at Mount Street, presumably including a preponderance of applications from Northern Ireland. The openness of the Border complicated accurate data collection, one official pointed out.
High-ranking government officials have dialogue about the belief that a significant number of people are crossing the Border. However, determining the motivation behind this trend is proving challenging.
One government employee involved in the area believes that a high proportion, particularly of the Nigerians, had some form of legal status in Britain, such as a visa or asylum. The prospective roll-out of the UK’s Rwanda policy, which involves transporting asylum seekers to the East African country for processing, presents another challenge.
Unofficial sources claim that revised family nullification regulations in the UK for less qualified migrant labourers could incite their relatives to shift, travelling back to Britain. A further assessment is that due to the significant numbers of asylum seekers travelling to the UK, a small part of this population ends up in Ireland.
Other sources suggest that with rumours rapidly circulating, there might be conjecture regarding Ireland or its system, which could be contributing to the increase. Alternatively, malevolent actors like human traffickers or organised crime groups might be staging transport paths to Ireland across the Border. The actual cause could be a mix of all these aspects along with other influences.
Security agents argue, a view also held in political domains, that part of the reason is the successful operations of the Garda abroad, particularly in checking documentation at important airports. This seems to have diverted people away from airports and airlines to some degree, but considering the gravity of migration pressures, this has merely dispersed the flow elsewhere, giving rise to a different problem.
Though the Garda can scrutinise buses and trains, the extensive border length and vast number of crossing points, a point emphasized by the Irish during Brexit disputes, stacks the odds against them. Inspections at the airport are considered simpler than managing the North-South divide, says a security source.
As the pressure related to the number of people the state deports escalates, the Garda may highlight the difficulties in finding people who have been in the country for several years. This might be especially tough if the political system starts demanding more action.
However, the difficult political reality is that it is now crucial for the Coalition to appear to be taking action. A significant systems breakdown, which includes processing times and upholding existing rules, needs addressing says a government source. They criticise the Department of Justice for their complete non-interference, their failure to establish capacity or structures over the years, and their appearance of being swamped, inadequate and inefficient.
The handling of immigration has seen a significant shift from the unending issue of accommodation towards stricter measures to reduce inbound flow into the State, aligning with the emphasis that Taoiseach Harris laid when he was in the Department of Justice.
The Taoiseach made clear on Thursday that the existing housing dilemma directly correlates with our current approach to migration. This aligns with the newly emerging principles of taking a ‘back to basics’ approach and applying ‘common sense’, as seen in the early stages of Harris’s tenure as prime minister.
There has been a regular rhythm of proposed policy announcements closely aligned with his premiership style. They feature an extended “safe country” list for quick processing, establishing new laws to resolve the situation where prompt return of individuals originating from the UK is not possible due to the Irish High Court’s decision stating the UK cannot be recognised as a safe third country. Also, integrating countries like Nigeria, which are prominently high in asylum seekers, for rapid processing along with safe country applicants. There was also the proposed halt of visa-free travel from South Africa, a measure that was reportedly scheduled during Harris’s time in the Justice Department but remains unaddressed.
Insiders at the Government Buildings anticipate additional announcements in the upcoming weeks, emphasising the pursuit of innovative ideas, rapid implementation, and introduction of new preventive action.
Yet, with all this speedy and ambitious activity, there are significant constraints to consider. Overhauling a system as compound as an immigration policy is quite challenging and can’t be achieved in a hurry, especially with Harris only having as much as 11 months left before the next general elections.
Migration trends appear cyclical and continue to rise despite the efforts to control them. The number of arriving single men has decreased whilst more families arrive due to the State’s capacity depletion to provide accommodation for all newcomers. However, the overall quantity continues to rise.
The Department has made remarkable progress in reducing the decision-making time on applications and appeals, a factor seen as crucial in managing the numbers from certain areas. However, the overall trend is still increasing.
Last week, McEntee hinted at the possibility of resuming returns to the UK after a reasonably quick legislative fix, but would the Irish courts adhere to it once the Rwanda policy has fully taken effect? Would the Government allow it?
Clearly, the constant motion of the migration narrative isn’t showing any signs of relenting, rather it seems to be on the uptake.
During a confrontation in the Wicklow constituency of Harris, gardaí and protesters clashed on Thursday evening. The Oireachtas justice committee intends to initiate comprehensive hearings regarding the migration pact in the upcoming week. As the Rural Independents register a dissenting motion against the pact, the ensuing exposure and appraisal are anticipated to raise further discussions, a scenario that the government identifies as beneficial.
McEntee is planning to engage in dialogues with her UK equivalent, James Cleverly, on the following Monday. In the context of the swiftly altering landscape and previous comments made by McEntee, their discussion is expected to be far-reaching. Harris has pledged to foster the increasing collaboration between the Garda, the Police Service of Northern Ireland, and both governments.