After several Israeli drones were brought down over an Iranian airbase near Isfahan causing fears of regional war, the Middle East saw stabilization efforts enacted on Friday. Iran veered away from retaliation in a bid to deescalate the situation, while Israel brought the operation to conclusion.
Military strikes against Iraq and Syria from Israel did not provoke threats of retaliation from either nation. Furthermore, there was no intensification of aggression towards Israel from Lebanon’s Hizbullah or the Houthis in Yemen towards Red Sea shipping. These flare ups began in reaction to Gaza’s war initiated by Israel after the October 7th incursion into southern Israel by Hamas.
If the restraint shown by both Iran and Israel holds, this could be a turning point in the unsteady region. This is particularly true if the risk-heavy actions decrease and the US and Europe decide to put an end to the Gaza conflict. The contention in Gaza is perceived as the catalyst of persistent regional instability and unrest by Arab nations.
The atmosphere heightened after the bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus by Israel on April 1st, leading to the death of 16 individuals, including seven Iranian Republican Guard officers. Even faced with such provocation by Israel, Iran vowed not to act in revenge if either the UN condemned the consulate attack, or if Israel agreed to a ceasefire in Gaza.
Ahead of Friday’s tension release, both Saudi Arabia and Emirates cautioned Israel against launching attacks on Iran in response to last weekend’s attempted large-scale missile and drone assault on Israel by Iran.
Oman, often an intermediary between Iran and the West, was the first nation to denounce Israel’s targeting of Iran, This was followed by similar warnings from Egypt. Also, Ayman Safadi, Jordan’s foreign minister, criticized the potentially war-inciting actions, whilst the United Arab Emirates foreign ministry spurred on “utmost restraint.”
Trita Parsi, the executive director of Washington’s Quincy Institute think tank, observed on X: “If Iran carries on treating the Israeli assault as dismissible, stalls the cyclical violence, it will hope to be acknowledged as the more rationale and self-restrained participant in this conflict.”
This would be a much-awaited development especially in the Western-aligned Gulf, which had recently mended its ties with Iran after six years of separation. For both Iran and the Arab states, the war in Gaza has emerged as the principal tension-point with the US and its pro-Israel European partners.
In mid-October, Parsi, a contributor for the Quincy Institute’s Responsible Statecraft site, argued that US leader Joe Biden was compelled to advocate for a cessation of hostilities to prevent the Gaza crisis from snowballing into a potential regional conflict with Iran. However, he thwarted three United Nations resolutions that called for a ceasefire and destabilised a fourth. Hence, we find ourselves in the current situation.
Biden’s actions, including plans to send over $14 billion in armaments to Israel, indicate no deviation from past policy and serve only to extend the Gaza conflict. Arab nations were further incensed by the US’s veto on Thursday of an Algerian-drafted resolution at the UN Security Council. This resolution proposed recognising Palestine as a full member of the UN. This action is seen by these nations as a signal that Biden lacks genuine commitment to endorsing the post-Gaza war bid for a two-state resolution. This resolution would involve the establishment of a Palestinian state, potentially resolving the Arab-Israel conflict that has persisted for 75 years.