Claudia Sheinbaum, the candidate for the ruling Morena party, is poised to make history as Mexico’s first female leader, having secured a potential landslide win. She owes her success to the popularity of incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. The INE electoral institute’s rapid sample count, released on Sunday evening, indicates that Sheinbaum won the country’s presidential vote.
Sheinbaum, previously the mayor of Mexico City, is expected to garner between 58% and 63% of the votes based on three exit polls. Meanwhile, Xochitl Galvez, representing an alliance of opposition parties that had governed the country for almost 90 years, is predicted to secure between 27% and 30% of the votes.
Sheinbaum, a former scientist, is faced with an imposing task, as she is set to inherit a nation plagued by soaring crime rates and a substantial fiscal deficit left behind by the López Obrador administration. The outgoing president allowed drug cartels to grow their power across Latin America’s number two economy, with a consequent surge in homicide rates. He also overspent towards the end of his presidency, issuing welfare cheques that endeared him to the less privileged, but saddled the country with its largest fiscal deficit since the 1980s.
Given López Obrador’s 60% approval rating, Sheinbaum will need to be delicate in dealing with his legacy. He could have easily retained power had the constitution permitted presidents to run for reelection. Although she vowed during her campaign to continue López Obrador’s vision, she will need to confront the security issues facing the country. The latest Mexican elections, the largest in the country’s history, were also its most deadly.
She’ll also need to address the faltering economy and find a sustainable solution for Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil company with the world’s highest debt, which is dragging down public finances. Credit rating agencies have warned of a potential downgrade to Mexico’s investment grade if no action is taken.
However, her significant lead gives her some flexibility. The lead suggests that the Morena party and their allies are set to perform well in the legislative arm, likely retaining dominance of both congressional houses and possibly even securing two-thirds of the seats. This would give her the ability to authorise constitutional amendments that López Obrador was unable to pass.