The state of affairs at the US-Mexico border, spanning 3,000km, reached a heightened point of tension on the 21st of December. The frontier bore the influx of thousands of migratory individuals every day, this overwhelmed border personnel and led to the shutting down of legal border crossings. The crisis was made a political tool by the Republicans, which put president Joe Biden under pressure to formulate an urgent solution.
Biden called upon the one individual capable of offering immediate help, the President of Mexico, Andrés Manuel López Obrador. He issued a direct demand for action and sent a team under the leadership of Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Mexico City.
In a swift response, the Mexican government reverted to the previously halted policy of deporting and transporting thousands of migrants from northern Mexico southbound, citing lack of funds as the reason for the prior suspension. This action resulted in a significant drop in unauthorised border crossings in the ensuing months from December’s record high of over 300,000. Biden touted last week that the numbers were now even lower than during the departure of Donald Trump from office, a claim that has been questioned.
This episode exemplifies the extent to which the Biden administration has relied on López Obrador to curb migration, a matter that Republicans have consistently used to criticise Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, the anticipated Democratic nominee.
López Obrador, an adroit and seasoned politician, has effectively exploited his influence over the Democratic administration to endorse liberal nationalist reforms. Critics argue these reforms have eroded democracy, provided a conducive environment for organised crime, impeded economic progress, and disincentivised foreign investment – with no apparent censure from Washington.
Former Mexican Foreign Affairs Minister and expert on US-Mexico relations, Jorge Castañeda, claimed, “López Obrador grasped that he could pretty much have his way provided he put in the hard work on the immigration issue for the US”. This understanding leaves open-ended questions on the implicit deal between the presidents and its sustainability after their tenures. López Obrador will be replaced by Claudia Scheinbaum in October.
Duncan Wood, Pacific Council on International Policy’s current president and former head of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center, remarked “The US has surrendered quite a bit and has acted contrary to its own best interests.”
The United States and Mexico, who were once at war, now share a significant relationship that spans over two centuries and involves a vast network of commerce, investment, and cultural exchange. Being the US’s primary commerce ally, Mexico also benefits from the largest foreign investment from this northern neighbour. With over 37 million individuals of Mexican lineage residing in the US, an estimated 1.6 million American citizens in Mexico, and the US embassy in Mexico City being one of the US’s largest missions, the ties between the two nations are undeniably profound.
Historically, there seemed to be a surprising rapport between the US leadership under Trump and Mexico’s current president, López Obrador, who started his term in 2018. Despite Trump’s previous harsh comments about Mexican immigrants and threats of imposing tariffs, the two leaders found common ground, focusing on their respective needs; Trump desiring a decrease in illegal migration, and López Obrador seeking economic advantages under the US-Mexico-Canada trade deal (USMCA).
Political spectators in Washington and Mexico City had anticipated that with Biden’s presidency, the US would depart from Trump’s mercantile approach towards Mexico and instead champion democracy, human rights and relaxing strict immigration laws. Although the Biden administration initially moderated some of the most severe Trump-era migration restrictions, it soon became apparent that the complexities of illegal immigration would remain a priority.
As per Ricardo Zúniga, previously on Biden’s Latin America team, there was an understanding that a collaborative approach would be fruitful in dealing with migration issues, without the necessity of resetting the US-Mexico relationship, given López Obrador’s undeniable domestic power.
Considering López Obrador’s reputation for being a staunch nationalist and possessing a Latin American left-leaning anti-American sentiment, Biden chose his old friend and ex-Senate colleague, Ken Salazar, as the ambassador to Mexico. Vice President Harris was also given the responsibility to work on the root causes of immigration to the US, partnering with Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras to bolster their economies, combat crime, and reduce violence.
Salazar made his entrance into Mexico City carrying a specific target set by Biden. This was to forge a strong bond with Amlo, an effort that seemed daunting to the Americans as explained by another ambassador in Mexico.
Impressively, Salazar was able to form an excellent relationship with López Obrador, but this close association unsettled some high-ranking diplomats in the US embassy. A US diplomat confessed, off record, that the level Salazar went to appease his hosts was disconcerting. He was accused of single-handedly managing the bilateral relations, paying little attention to the state department, and constantly emphasising his personal connection with Biden. However, Mexican officials dismissively referred to Salazar as a ‘useful fool’.
An official of the US state department maintained that Ambassador Salazar, along with his team in Mission Mexico, were working collaboratively with colleagues in Washington and counterparts in Mexico to further the interests of the US.
On his part, López Obrador was swift in working out how immigration could be used to his advantage against the US. Andrew Selee, the Migration Policy Institute’s president in Washington, described Obrador as a seasoned politician with immense negotiation skills, and this made it seamless for him to spot potential trade-offs.
As Biden assumed office in January 2021, he was immediately plunged into a diplomatic conundrum with Mexico concerning a former defence minister and a high-ranking military official suspected of drug trafficking. DEA officials had earlier apprehended general Salvador Cienfuegos in October while on holiday with his family in Los Angeles, alleging him of conspiring to traffick cocaine, heroin, methamphetamines and laundering the profits.
Initially, despite Cienfuegos’s high rank, López Obrador seemed inclined to acknowledge his guilt. However, under intense pressure from Mexico’s military, he swiftly changed his stance, dismissing the accusations as false and called for Cienfuegos’s release.
He went as far as threatening to eject all DEA agents from Mexico and terminate collaboration in the drug war, a particularly crucial issue for the US due to the incessant influx of unlawful cocaine and fentanyl across the border. Fortnightly, the Trump administration capitulated, Cienfuegos was let go, and he was returned to Mexico under an agreement that legal action would ensue there.
Days before President Biden assumed the reins of power, Mexican prosecutors declared they found no basis to prosecute Cienfuegos. Subsequently, López Obrador commanded the dissemination of the classified documentation that the US had provided Mexico, branding the accusation as a contrivance. An official from the US Department of Justice expressed significant disappointment over the discontinued case. López Obrador, in the previous year, had awarded the general for his service. Castañeda contends that neither the Trump nor the Biden administration would risk upsetting López Obrador to the extent of jeopardising migration collaboration.
López Obrador has been progressively dependent on the military for the implementation of his cardinal projects. This military control has stretched from management of considerable construction works to the helm of a fresh federal police force, flouting the constitutional guideline that stipulates the placement of the police under civilian jurisdiction. Throughout his tenure, López Obrador has also handed over control of airports, seaports, customs, and even an airline to them.
Despite the US issuing stern criticism towards dictatorship in regional countries like El Salvador and stern warnings to Brazil’s military to respect their constitution under Jair Bolsonaro’s leadership, a similar approach has not been taken towards Mexico. Also, the Biden regime notably held back from condemning López Obrador’s affronts on paramount democratic institutions, exemplified by last year’s government vanguard onslaught on Mexico’s Supreme Court.
López Obrador continuously denigrated the institution, particularly in his daily press briefings, especially following rulings that stood against some of his endeared schemes. Last summer, government loyalists set up a protest outside the central Supreme Court building in Mexico City. They vandalised it with phrases like “Corrupt traitor justices, you are fired”, scrawled Norma Piña, the court’s president, as a “narco-pig” on huge posters, and went on to burn her effigy publicly.
While the Biden administration responded emphatically and harmoniously to safeguard Brazilian democracy when Bolsonaro’s government in Brazil assaulted the Supreme Court, sought military favour, and cast doubt on the voting system, similar onslaughts in Mexico, particularly by López Obrador supporters on a key democracy pillar, did not garner equivalent reaction. Wood from the Pacific Council admits that there were apprehensions about the situation, but claims that immigration issues made the US feel it was being held hostage, suggesting they could have adopted a sterner stance.
The senior official from the US Department of State has confirmed that there is a broad spectrum of pressing matters that the United States is coordinating with Mexico, while emphasising the necessity of solid democratic systems. With his tenure soon coming to a close, Mexican President López Obrador suggested replacing the supreme court with democratically elected judges, a move NGOs warn may transform it into an extension of the ruling party. Mexican Ambassador Salazar has pointed out the importance of a robust judicial system, however, any alterations are up to the Mexican populace.
One of the ministers in López Obrador’s government highlighted that the United States relies on Mexico for fentanyl and migration issues. López Obrador’s administration has taken a more assertive stance in its dealings with the US, ensuring that tough negotiations are carried out.
The Mexican President, having grown in confidence due to Biden administration’s hesitation, has on occasion pursued foreign policies contrary to US interests. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Mexican Independence Day celebrations featured Russian troops at the parade, and López Obrador criticised US aid to Ukraine as ‘irrational’.
In terms of foreign relations, López Obrador extended an invitation to Venezuela’s leader, Nicolás Maduro, who has a $15m (around €13.7m) reward for information leading to his arrest in the US over accusations of drug trafficking, to attend a regional summit in Mexico City. He also sent oil to Cuba free of charge.
López Obrador’s notable neglect to attend the Summit of the Americas hosted by US President Biden in Los Angeles in June 2022, inspired other Latin American leaders to skip the summit as well. Nevertheless, Biden invited López Obrador to the White House the month after.
López Obrador’s nationalist policies have proven challenging for US businesses, particularly his efforts to limit private investment in the energy sector, effectively reversing a trend towards liberalisation under his predecessor. Other measures taken include prohibiting the import of genetically modified corn from the US and cancelling a licence for a half-constructed US brewery in northern Mexico.
Despite these policies seemingly breaching the USMCA, the US has refrained from invoking the dispute resolution mechanism designed to visit such cases. Over three years after López Obrador passed regulations to increase state control over electricity production, the US is yet to assemble a dispute resolution panel. Salazar recalls several hours-long meetings involving US energy companies and López Obrador, and noted that a number of companies advanced with significant investments as a result.
The surge in organised crime under the policy of ’embrace, not shootout’ implemented under López Obrador is causing a growing concern for businesses, according to a leading business representative in Mexico. Large US corporations, previously unbothered, are now facing issues.
Migration will likely remain a significant and contentious topic in the upcoming US November elections, despite Biden bowing out. Harris, attacked by Trump for her handling of the border, is accused of allowing 20 million undocumented migrants into the country. However, aides to Harris stressed that she was never officially assigned the role of ‘border tsar.’ Her responsibilities were reportedly focused more on addressing underlying causes of migration.
The strategy was unsuccessful as political repression and economic turmoil in Venezuela and Cuba sparked a large exodus from these countries. Similarly, security issues in Ecuador and Haiti led to an increased number of migrants. Harris has been relatively quiet on the topic of migration following Biden’s exit from the presidential competition. However, her previous negative vote on the USMCA as one of 10 senators could potentially cause concern for Mexico, even moreso than her stance on migration.
In the face of what some see as a decaying democratic institution, López Obrador’s chosen successor, Scheinbaum, achieved a sweeping victory in June’s elections. Their Morena party currently holds ample support in congress to overhaul the constitution – a move López Obrador intends to make before leaving office. His proposed measures, justified as efforts against corruption, include broad transformations to the court and electoral systems, along with dismantling independent regulators.
Former Mexican ambassador to the US, Arturo Sarukhán, urges Washington to be vigilant and focused on the potential reforms that López Obrador and Morena plan to push through in September. He warns that should Mexico transition into a non-liberal democracy, China, Russia, and Cuba stand to benefit. An anonymous former US state department official lamented López Obrador’s success in circumventing US influence on trade, foreign policy, Venezuela, migration, and counter-narcotic cooperation.
Whilst every country puts its self-interest first, the lack of development beyond a purely economic relationship between the United States and Mexico, its principal trade partner, under the Trump leadership is significant. Castañeda believes that a disregard from the US towards Mexican domestic affairs dates back even to the tumultuous 1920s following the Mexican revolution. He refers to it as a sort of unspoken agreement where as long as Mexico’s situation did not threaten American’s core concerns including its property and citizens, the Americans allowed the Mexicans to manage their own issues as they deemed fit. However, not all are content with this. Some leaders in Mexican society feel their democracy has been abandoned by both the Trump and Biden administrations. Lorenzo Córdova, ex-president of the autonomous electoral body INE, points out the deficiency in highlighting concerns about fundamental human rights and liberties for a trade ally like Mexico. Córdova cautions that any undermining of Mexico’s legal system could be problematic to the US, given that autocratic governments tend to act on their whims and not according to the rule of law. – Copyright Financial Times Limited 2024. In other news, there is speculation over potential ties between Irish operatives and Mexico’s deadliest drug cartel.