In late July, a document named All-Island Strategic Rail Review was unveiled by the Government in collaboration with the Department of Infrastructure of Northern Ireland. Compiled by the esteemed engineering consultancy, Ove Arup Ltd, the report investigates the potential of the island’s rail network in supporting the decarbonisation of transportation systems and fostering sustainable intercity connectivity. Furthermore, it aims to boost regional accessibility and facilitate balanced regional development. The report outlines a “vision statement”, six primary aims, and 13 goals with an estimated total cost of €35 billion.
The proposal, set to span 25 years, anticipates an expenditure of €27.6 billion in the Republic, which would be supplemented by an expected £7 billion from the Northern administration. However, it remains ambiguous whether the UK government, already committed to cancelling the northern stretch of HS2, will finance the northern rail expansion proposed in the report.
The study puts a strong emphasis on reestablishing routes that were closed down about five or six decades ago. These include the Mullingar-Cavan-Armagh, Waterford-Wexford, and Mullingar-Athlone lines. It also foresees a revival of a rail line in Northern Ireland, connecting Derry and Letterkenny to Strabane, Omagh, Dungannon, and Portadown, which would integrate with the re-opened Cavan line through Monaghan and Clones.
Currently, 2.8 million inhabitants in the North and South reside within a 5km radius of a railway station. If fully realised, the vision outlined by the review would raise this number to 3.5 million. It projects a rise in rail usage, aiming to lift the present passenger journeys in rail mode share from 3 percent to over 6 percent.
The evaluation released in 2024 oddly appraised the capital expenditure for implementation “in 2021 costs” at €32 billion, with a rise in yearly ongoing fees at €600 million, deducting increased revenue. It specifically omitted expenses connected with “already agreed expenditure such as the DART+ initiative and the Metrolink underground system in Dublin”. The current price tag on Metrolink exceeds €11 billion, whilst a Dáil committee cautioned that it might skyrocket to €20 billion. The extension plan for Dart+, which extends to Kildare, Maynooth and the M3 Parkway and was initially confirmed in 2005, in conjunction with the line’s advancement to Drogheda and additional enhancements, was reportedly valued at €3 billion in August 2023, a hike up of 25% from the pre-pandemic prediction.
The Irish Rail submitted a proposal to An Bord Pleanála as long ago as 2010 for an underground DART interconnecting system between Heuston and Connolly hubs with services to city centre stops in between, and it was marked at €4.5 billion. However, it was removed from the 2018 National Development Initiative. That project had over €100 million invested in it and it has since been resurrected as part of a strategic re-evaluation, though merely as a remote proposal for the period after 2042.
Fascinatingly, the latest strategic assessment document now advocates for the construction of an above-ground railway to service Dublin Airport by connecting it to the Dublin suburban network at Clongriffin. A representative from Irish Rail recently advised the Oireachtas Transport Committee that this could be achieved in under five years. The committee was informed that such an above-ground railway to Dublin Airport would total less than €1 billion.
However, we are informed that this expenditure would just “supplement” the enormously costly Metrolink underground scheme, which the NTA is presently working to get authorisation for from An Bord Pleanála.
The strategic rail blueprint does not propose any substantial extension of Dublin’s Luas network, likely because its focus is primarily on heavy rail. Many suburban areas of Dublin currently lack Luas services, with future lines to south city locations and areas like Lucan and Rathfarnham being put on hold. Why is this the case? The Luas network, with the help of modern technologies such as Very Light Rail (VLR) or tramsets without tracks, could potentially offer services throughout Dublin’s suburbs instead of currently serving only a fraction of the city through its Green and Red lines. The cost per kilometre for this expansion would be a negligible proportion of the proposed Swords-Airport-Dartmouth Metrolink. If both a surface Luas service incorporating Dublin Airport and a surface rail connection to Clongriffin were to be established, would there still be justification for investing €12 billion – or even €20 billion – in the Metrolink?
The implementation of these railway projects might jeopardise other transportation developments, such as the completion of national motorways to Sligo and Kerry. There are questions about how these railway proposals could co-exist alongside plans to connect the M2 and M3 to the northwest, including the overdue A5 upgrade linking Derry and Donegal towards the southeast and Dublin. It’s probable that the long-debated outer orbital motorway for the Greater Dublin Area would be shelved. Would there be enough financial support left for the long-awaited Galway ring road?
The strategy ambitiously suggests a shift of a significant portion of road freight to trains, operating from ports towards inland rail freight centres. But is this feasible? Is it reasonable to heavily rely on rail transport while also planning for electric, hydrogen and renewable-powered cars, vans and trucks?
Who’s making these decisions? How likely are we to see this far-off vision materialise?