Today, Sinn Féin meets in Athlone for its ardfheis that is faced with an unusual state of turmoil and anxiety for the party. The dominant feature of the party’s political path in recent years has been constant progress, with its significant jump in votes during the 2020 general elections, leading to the majority vote. Over the next four years, support continued to consistently increase, hitting the mid-30s. It was hard to envision the party not making the government after the upcoming election. Its progress seemed certain; anticipation was rife in Leinster House and surroundings: Sinn Féin was set to head the forthcoming government in the Republic, the only uncertainty being its potential partners.
However, dynamics started shifting over a year ago, with changes becoming more pronounced in the early parts of this year. The local and European election outcomes in May saw a significant drop in the party’s votes to around 11-12 percent.
Is there a possibility for Sinn Féin to recover its dwindling popularity before the elections?
Until recently, the emergence of a Sinn Féin-led government was considered inevitable. Presently, with surveys indicating a significant drop in party support, the party’s fate hangs in the balance. Therefore, the questions arise, what led to the decrease in Sinn Féin’s support, can it regain its lost popularity, and where should it focus its resources in the imminent campaign? Experts in Political Science, Theresa Reidy and Aidan Regan join Hugh to discuss this matter. Aidan Regan is an associate professor of political economy at the school of politics and international relations at the University College Dublin. Meanwhile, Dr Theresa Reidy is a senior lecturer in government and politics at the University College of Cork.
As of now, the party is waiting for the declaration of the next general election. If Simon Harris adheres to the political wisdom of capitalising on opponents’ weaknesses, it’s expected to come sooner rather than later.
The prospect of Mary Lou McDonald staging another massive comeback appears slim. The confidence of Sinn Féin has taken a hit.
The political group is ardently working on restructuring and revitalising its procedures. Mary Lou McDonald, in recent individual discussions, has candidly shared her personal struggles with health issues and her husband’s severe sickness last year. The party has since shifted its focus onto housing issues and tightened its criticisms against the Government from a policy perspective.
However, latest survey results don’t hint towards any potential turnaround. The process of selecting potential candidates – a crucial step in election prep – appears vague at the moment. The party remained silent on whether or not it would select running mates last week. Further, there appears to be deep-seated problems in the party as indicated by two recent incidents.
The first incident concerns a large proportion of the public who rely heavily on local radio for news updates and opinions. The morning sessions, usually scheduled around 9 or 10 am, are deemed important. On Highland Radio in Co Donegal, the morning slot belongs to the ‘Nine till Noon Show’ hosted by Greg Hughes. A few weeks back, he invited the Sinn Féin finance spokesperson and local TD Pearse Doherty, mainly to talk about the party’s newly introduced housing policy.
After the discussion, Hughes went through the feedback from the listeners. These remarks were predominantly critical of Sinn Féin. “In my many years of interviewing Pearse Doherty, Pádraig Mac Lochlainn, and other representatives of Sinn Féin, I haven’t seen such severe criticism,” Hughes told his audience. “Although it’s possible that Sinn Féin supporters refrained from texting, I’ve not witnessed such negativity in ages.” However, he clarifies, he wasn’t implying that this represents the broader public viewpoint.
Rory Costello, a political scientist at the University of Limerick, analysed the demographic of voters who had previously supported Sinn Féin, but shifted their allegiance during the earlier part of this year. The data, gathered from Red C surveys for the National Election and Democracy Study (NEDS), took into account polling at the family and care referendums, as well as local and European elections. It appears that many of these voters, who abandoned Sinn Féin in the May elections, deemed immigration to be a crucial matter. The data suggests that former Sinn Féin supporters considered immigration twice as significant an issue than housing, whilst for current supporters, housing was twice as significant as immigration.
Focusing on the voters who diverged from the party, Costello observed that the majority held negative views about immigration. Moreover, these ex-Sinn Féin voters harbour strong anti-immigration sentiments and have since developed a negative perception of the party. For instance, recent anti-immigration rally-goers in Dublin were heard naming Sinn Féin “traitors.” It’s unlikely these individuals would rejoin the party.
That said, a political revival of Sinn Féin isn’t an implausible scenario. Despite the poor performance in the 2019 local and European elections, the party rebounded to triumph in the general elections just eight months later. A blend of left-wing economic populism, stellar campaigning led by Mary Lou McDonald, and catering to voters’ robust yearning for change played a role in the resurgence.
It’s essential to consider the tremendous instability characterising Irish politics, causing a shift in the political scenery towards Fine Gael and away from Sinn Féin. Election campaigns are subject to abrupt fluctuation. Just a short while back, we thought Sinn Féin was a safe bet for government; now, many predict a return of the Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael duo. The latter scenario currently seems more plausible, however, no outcome is foregone.
In politics, it’s uncommon to successfully repeat a specific strategy, and the likelihood of Sinn Féin recreating their outstanding performance of 2019-2020 is relatively low. Their certainty has been shaken. Nevertheless, they can commence the election as one of the three primary parties of varying sizes. Furthermore, political campaigns are characteristically dynamic, volatile, and can’t be reliably predicted. Insight provided by Theresa Reidy on the Inside Politics podcast this week highlighted an interesting fact; nearly half of the voters decide whom to support during the campaign itself. The rules of the political game might have evolved, certainly, but it doesn’t signify the end game, not by a considerable extent.