The question is how the recent Super Rugby match in Melbourne is connected to the upcoming task for Ireland playing England in Twickenham. The Waratahs, my esteemed team which is marking its 150th year in existence, has been in a rut of successive low-performing seasons. On the heels of an embarrassing loss to Queensland, they were faced with the challenge of going against the top team and present champions in Super Rugby history, the Crusaders from Canterbury. It was the widespread assumption that the Crusaders would dominantly win over the Waratahs, who sport the historic Cambridge blue uniforms of New South Wales. Yet, contrary to these predictions, the Waratahs won 37-24.
The key takeaway from this is that certainty in rugby is non-existent. Despite being in a slump for a considerable period and suffering a disgraceful loss in their previous game in Edinburgh, England still has the potential to win at Twickenham. Rugby is not a precise pursuit.
Admittedly, when looking at the performance of Ireland versus England during the first few matches of the Six Nations, it seems unavoidable to consider Ireland as strong contenders.
Nevertheless, getting a win at Twickenham remains an immense hurdle in rugby. From the giant lion statues guarding the outer boundary of England’s rugby stronghold to the pre-game tradition of singing Jerusalem’s hymn, the environment of English rugby is infused with remnants of past glory.
The philosophical interpretation of William Blake’s verse suggests a metaphor that it is always an uphill battle when visiting the “green and pleasant land” once known as Bill Williams’s potato field.
The following lines are perhaps a bit theatrical for a rugby match, but there is no question that Ireland’s challenge at Twickenham will be a formidable one.
The original text stresses that England seems to prefer a game strategy that is reminiscent of an old-school struggle. Such strategy was evident in the World Cup semi-final against the Springboks. England was bombarded with intense physical attacks in a pattern that was similar to a first World War tactic, featuring continuous aggressive engagements from runners into English defenders.
The English team welcomed this approach, successfully consumed the raw ferocity of the attacks, and astonishingly almost reached the final. When the Welsh squad came to South London with a parallel strategy, albeit less skilled, the English team enjoyed it. England managed to convert both games into combat-like encounters. Both the Boks and the Welsh gave England precisely the kind of physical battle they are comfortable with, neglecting a basic tactical principle of formulating a strategic plan to present the opponents with an unexpected challenge.
The figures from the rough Anglo-Welsh battle show a dismal ball-in-play time of just over 36 minutes. For majority of the match, there was little action. Spectators had to wait for an appalling duration of roughly 18 and a half minutes for scrums to form. An additional 12 minutes were wasted due to injuries and player replacement. More than 10 minutes were wasted on penalty and conversion attempts as the players enacted their pre-kick rituals.
These statistics reveal that England’s strategy is to decelerate the game, dragging their opponents into a physical wrestling match they think they can control. England’s newly introduced defensive system, remaining frequently offside, leaves significant space on the flanks. This will likely be the situation where Ireland could take advantage of. English hopes could be salvaged by the predicted rain, but not even a major storm could save England from defeat if they replicate their error numbers from the match at Murrayfield.
Facing Scotland, England made an astonishing 25 handling fouls and surprisingly lost possession 22 times. With such statistics, it’s impossible for a team to impose their game plan on their opponents.
With 18 successive victories at home, Ireland’s rugby team mirrors England in its formidable strength. During the most recent 13 Six Nations encounters, Ireland has only let in 13 tries compared to England hemorrhaging 38. So far in this season’s tournament, Ireland has chalked up 15 tries against England’s mere six.
The Irish side transitioned smoothly after their legendary fly-half, Johnny Sexton, was replaced by the comparatively green Jack Crowley, who seems to have effortlessly assumed the reins of Ireland’s intricate and highly effective offence.
Last year marked a low point when loyal fans of English rugby subjected their captain, Owen Farrell, to thoughtless insults. Farrell, who has dedicated his career to the service of the team, chose to step away. This lack of respect for one of England’s greatest ever players, like Farrell, was a new nadir of unthinking disrespect. So much for national pride.
[Feyi-Waboso, Mitchell, and Martin join the team as England initiates three substitutions ahead of the face-off with Ireland]
The vacuum left by Farrell’s exit has clouded England’s line-up for the fly-half and inside centre posts. Currently, George Ford and Ollie Lawrence hold these positions but England’s offence has been, to put it mildly, strategically unfocused and at worst, a complete shambles. Marcus Smith is mooted as the potential game-changer; despite his dazzling performances for Harlequins, he has proven less impressive when wearing the national colours.
The numbers overwhelmingly suggest that Ireland should cruise to a substantial victory.
Yet, the unpredictable nature of rugby, in all its intricate detail, means that outcomes are never a foregone conclusion. For proof, just have a word with the Waratahs.