Some individuals of a certain age may remember the financial struggles faced by Bertie Ahern during the latter phase of the Celtic Tiger era. His monetary woes, brought to light by the efforts of the Mahon tribunal and emerging private evidence, took centre-stage politically in the fall of 2006, during the lead up to the next year’s General Election where Ahern was looking to secure a third term as taoiseach.
To summarise a rather lengthy process, Ahern was under scrutiny by the tribunal for a sequence of payments made to him. In the time of tribunals, the news that Ahern was the subject of an investigation had a massive impact. Many political experts and insiders were of the conclusion that Ahern’s political career was finished, believing he wouldn’t be able to recover from this.
Undeterred, Ahern gave a tumultuous and well-known interview to Bryan Dobson on RTE’s Six One News where he spoke about his divorce, significant legal expenses, the depletion of his savings, being homeless, and how his friends arranged a series of loans and contributions for him, later referred to as the acclaimed “dig-outs”. These suspicious payments were the very ones the tribunal had unearthed. Ahern’s narrative, as noted by Miriam Lord the following day, was quite moving; people would have had to be heartless not to feel anything. However, his story was met with broad scepticism within the realms of politics and the media.
Sinn Féin’s main figure, Mary Lou McDonald, might want to discuss this with Bertie Ahern. Furthermore, indications of an early election – the setbacks faced by Sinn Féin and a sneak peek at Micheál Martin’s campaign posters – are becoming increasingly visible. Despite this, it seems to remain optimum to be a finance minister, regardless of the suitability of the country for children.
Upon the release of the poll results, there was a significant rise in support for Fianna Fáil – it had grown by eight points, with Ahern’s personal score climbing to 53 per cent. Fianna Fáilers themselves were among the most shocked by this turnaround. Later, Ahern emerged triumphant in the forthcoming election, however, he stepped down a year afterwards due to continuing tribulations with the tribunal.
Might the numerous scandals surrounding Sinn Féin influence their core supporters?
A noteworthy takeaway from this situation is the evident disconnect between the electorate’s opinions and the fixations of the enclosed political and media sphere centred on Leinster House, an arena heavily influenced by politics.
For the past few weeks, the political arena has been overwhelmed by the political storm engulfing Sinn Féin. The party is experiencing one of its darkest periods since becoming a critical political entity in Ireland. Yet, despite the gleeful reactions from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, it remains uncertain whether these present disputes will actually affect the election’s outcome.
There’s no denying that these issues tarnish Sinn Féin and its leader, hindering the party’s ability to address other more politically beneficial topics such as housing. However, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s hope that this situation will lead to Sinn Féin’s downfall in the election is simply unrealistic optimism mistaken for assessment. Will the forthcoming election be about Sinn Féin’s culture, the individual controversies, or the numerous unresolved questions involving the party and its leader? It seems doubtful.
The reasons for this are twofold. Firstly, as evidenced by the Ahern incident, voters often disregard the findings of the ‘political bubble’. Although they were aware of Ahern’s ordeal, they ultimately weighed the country’s economic situation over Ahern’s personal issues. George Osborne, the previous British Chancellor of the Exchequer, once asserted that politicians should grasp the fact that most voters don’t pay much attention to daily politics.
Secondly, the primary issues according to numerous opinion polls are housing, immigration, cost of living, and public services. It doesn’t seem probable that the manner in which Sinn Féin deals with its scandals will suddenly become an addition to this list.
To further expound, the main adversaries of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are not primarily Sinn Féin, regarded as the opposition leaders, but rather each other and independent groups. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael primarily clash and exchange with each other and to a lesser extent battle against central and rural independent parties. The prospect of both parties winning votes from Sinn Féin is quite slim.
Sinn Féin, on the other hand, faces adversaries across the political spectrum. Those deeply nationalistic and anti-immigration voters have abandoned Sinn Féin for more right-leaning parties. As noted by Ivan Yates, the sighting of a Tricolour in urban flats during the previous elections indicated Sinn Féin support, however now it’s more likely to symbolise far-right affiliation.
On the contrary, left-leaning younger voters motivated by topics including housing and the situation in Gaza, might move away from Sinn Féin towards Labour, the Social Democrats or even further left-leaning parties. However, a shift to Government parties appears unlikely. Confirmation of this has been received from numerous pollsters and political analysts. It is worth noting that Holly Cairns and Ivana Bacik have challenged Sinn Féin in recent times.
It should be stressed that the controversies surrounding Sinn Féin are significant and politically pertinent. The party needs to address these issues thoroughly and take stock of the situation internally. However, their impact on the potentially forthcoming November election, prompted by Micheál Martin’s recent change in position, cannot be accurately predicted. Uncertainty and irregularity persist as distinguishing characteristics of Irish politics.