Ahead of Panama’s upcoming elections, the nation’s most favoured politician and supermarket tycoon has fervently appealed to voters from his makeshift headquarters in the Nicaraguan embassy’s storeroom. Ricardo Martinelli, the previous president, has taken refuge there with his dog Bruno since February to evade arrest on a conviction for money laundering which disqualified him from the presidential race.
Martinelli, dubbed “the crazy one”, has thrown his support behind José Raúl Mulino, his previous vice-presidential running mate, who currently holds a significant lead in the polls. Martinelli, in a recent social media post sporting a baseball cap inscribed with “king”, lamented the time he was losing in the embassy, equating every second lost to “years of hopes and achievements”.
Nonetheless, in a following post from an embassy patio hammock, he expressed a more hopeful outlook, stating, “The change and the new dawn approaching for Panama are ever closer”. Many of Panama’s political elite, however, wish to avoid this spectacle whilst the country is facing some of its most significant socio-economic challenges in years.
The approaching leader must endorse a new water source for the critical canal, crucial to sea trade, decide the fate of one of the largest global copper mines, and strategize how to address the stark disparity in wealth that has spurred public dissatisfaction. Political observers have noted this as the most unconventional campaign since democracy was reinstated post the US invasion in 1989.
There is potential for Mulino, a well-known forceful personality and former security minister, to be dismissed from the ballot following a supreme court verdict on his eligibility. Ricardo Lombana, an outsider favoured by urban middle-class voters, ex-president Martín Torrijos, lawyer and politician Rómulo Roux, and current vice-president José Gabriel Carrizo with the centre-left Democratic Revolutionary party, trail behind in the polls.
The upcoming presidential race consists of a single round and experts anticipate concurrent parliamentary elections to yield a fragmented assembly. Although barred from the US due to “significant corruption”, Martinelli retains stout backing from working-class Panamanians, attributed to his metro system initiative in the capital and his approachable demeanour. A CID Gallup poll conducted late last year reported a 56 per cent approval rating for Martinelli.
Raúl Martínez, a 57-year-old transport administrator from the capital, expressed his preference for the period during which Martinelli’s government held power, stating that the present economy is in shambles. Martinelli, sporting silver hair and a knack for business, made Miami his home to evade charges related to political espionage after leaving office in 2014. Many draw parallels between him and the former US president Donald Trump. Both are seen as maverick business tycoons who drastically altered their respective countries’ political landscapes, and both have spent their post-presidency years avoiding prosecutors. The duo’s paths crossed when Martinelli was president during the opening of Trump’s hotel situated in Panama’s loftiest tower.
However, the law has been hot on Martinelli’s heels, with several corruption accusations against him. Last year, he got hit with a prison sentence of 10 years after being proven guilty for misusing money from public contracts to acquire a media corporation. The judicial proceedings due for this year involve charges of accepting illicit funds from a Brazilian company called Odebrecht. The case is connected to an expansive scandal for which his sons, Luis and Ricardo, served time in US prisons.
Categorically denying the charges alongside the US corruption claims, Martinelli sees himself as a political scapegoat. His appeal having been denied by a court, he sought refuge in the Nicaraguan embassy in February and later secured asylum in Nicaragua. Nevertheless, being denied safe passage by Panama’s government prevented him from reaching the country.
Adapting to his circumstances, Martinelli is currently residing in the Nicaraguan embassy situated in a peaceful residential neighbourhood. He has converted it into his makeshift residence, complete with painting and air conditioning in the storage room, an investment made by his supporters.
Former Mayor of Panama City, Juan Carlos Navarro, described Martinelli as a unique politician whose impact is as divisive as it is significant. Opinion about him in Panama is split, with some cherishing him whilst others detest him.
Despite its skyline dominated by 60-storey towers, and its economy spurred by rapid construction and a canal handling 5% of global maritime trade, Panama sharply contrasts poorer neighbouring countries. Amidst the luxury hotels and sports car dealerships, communities deprived of basic amenities exist. Economists point towards a classical ‘middle–income trap’ plaguing Panama, as its education system lags behind comparable countries and around a quarter of its households lack water access throughout the day during dry periods, as derived from census data.
Geraldino Molina, a 28-year-old security officer, opines that for many young people, the economic structures seem biased. Securing job opportunities, according to him, is largely dependent on who you know rather than your expertise. This viewpoint became more pronounced after the strict lockdown measures triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic, causing widespread social dissent. The measures led to the closing down of key sectors of the country, including one of the globe’s largest copper mines, disrupting the country’s biggest foreign investment.
José Ramón Icaza, the chief of GANA Panamá, a confluence of civil societies and the private sector, highlighted higher awareness of societal issues amongst business leaders following these events. According to Icaza, the social instability led to a recognition of deep-rooted problems needing immediate attention. He foresaw that the upcoming presidential candidates would need wide national consensus for a win as a result.
The next president will also need to address the contentious issue of Martinelli. Mulino, a close associate of Martinelli, vowed to defend the rights of his friend, who he claims have been abused.
However, Mulino has been largely silent during the election period, avoiding press interviews and presidential debates. His campaign stance involves a hard-line approach to migration and crime, pledging to seal the Darién Gap, a jungle on the border with Colombia which has seen significant migration activity. As a result, this proposal could find favour with the US government, which is urging neighbouring countries for increased intervention. The next leader is expected to face predominantly domestic challenges, such as making difficult decisions for a frustrated populace.
Political consultant Antonio Sanmartín warns that any displeasure from the electorate could prompt mass protests, compounding the challenges of governance. If Mulino gets elected, he will be under immense pressure to fulfil Martinelli’s promises of enhanced financial support for common Panamanians.
Martinelli, in a confident social media post, equated himself with Mulino earlier this year, promising improved living standards and financial prosperity for all.
– Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024