In the wake of the recount victory of Venezuela’s current president, Nicolás Maduro, on July 29th, a tangible sense of vulnerability pervaded the environment. Numerous places throughout Caracas witnessed plumes of tear gas emanating into the sky, as countless demonstrators engaged in conflict with law enforcement. The alleged fraudulent electoral outcome was strongly condemned by supporters of the opposition, who defiled statues of Hugo Chávez, the forerunner to Maduro. They also demolished the president’s election publicity materials in numerous locations nationwide.
It was the first time the less affluent sections of society had collectively joined such protests, marking a significant turning point in the history of the socialist government that had been in power for a quarter of a century. María Corina Machado, the opposition leader, assured: “This is not the termination, but indeed the commencement of its ultimate ending.”
However, three weeks on, the once rampant protests and ubiquitous buoyant spirit have vanished, replaced by an air of defeat and wariness owing to severe government repression. Those opposed to the current regime have been faced with a grim reality that had long been feared: Maduro is unyielding in his unwillingness to vacate his seat of power, regardless of the circumstances.
Maduro, in a recent broadcasted statement while adorning military attire despite never enlisting in the armed forces, asserted to be combating against a ‘cyber-fascist and criminal coup d’état on the streets of Venezuela.’ He stated adamantly: “I am ready for the inevitable.”
Prior to the elections, seeds of hope had been sown that a victory of the opposition could potentially precipitate a peaceful transition of power. Instead, the South American oil-rich nation seems to be adopting the stances of Belarus or Nicaragua, evolving into a rejected administration that maintains its grip on power by using force.
Since Maduro’s reelection, levels of repression have reached unprecedented levels according to non-governmental bodies operating within the nation. Demonstrators have been the targets of shooting. A minimum of 24 fatalities and an excess of 1300 arrests have been recorded by advocacy groups Foro Penal and Provea.
Presumably to deter opposition from rallying its followers, the population has been directed by the government to erase the messaging service WhatsApp from their devices. Additionally, access to social media platform X has been blocked as it has been gripped by an ongoing dispute between the billionaire owner Elon Musk and Maduro.
“The final communication from María Oropeza to the Financial Times was, “They are at my doorstep, but I won’t retreat,” before she was forcefully taken from her home by military counterintelligence agents. Oropeza, an employee of Vente Venezuela, Machado’s political party in Portuguesa, western state, had been documenting instances of arbitrary detentions. In her final texts sent just moments prior to her capture, she described the situation as a “witch-hunt and a shakedown,” alleging that officials demanded bribes for suspects’ release.
President Maduro, a stout and moustached figure, has continually driven home one notion in his numerous public appearances since the election drew to a close – he is the victor, his government is under threat from an attempted coup by far-right fascists supported by the US, and he will go to any extent to suppress it.
Pre-election reports from local news informed of the arrival of four aircraft filled with Cuban special forces, indicating the government’s preparation for widespread protests. Andrés Izarra, an ex-tourism minister who publicly fell out with Maduro in 2018, asserts that resignation is not on the president’s agenda. Izarra states, “They have no plans to step down, nor will they surrender to María Corina.” He believes the government will test their durability to rule through force and intimidation.
Despite it seeming inevitable that Maduro would respond in this way to the election, opposition parties harboured hopes of ousting him through democratic means, a task that was always going to be a steep uphill battle. Land and power impediments were placed on Machado by the government-controlled supreme court, and she faced continual harassment as she campaigned for Edmundo González, a retired diplomat, around the nation.
Yet, despite the constant exposure of Maduro’s face on billboards and his appearances on social media platforms, where he is seen joking and dancing, several opinion polls revealed his deep unpopularity among the people.”
During their 11-year reign, economic turmoil had ravaged the country’s economy, reducing it to a quarter of its size, causing nearly one-fourth of the populace to emigrate. The wealthy were the primary beneficiaries of the lackluster recovery since 2021. Pre-election independent polls indicated that Maduro was trailing González by 20 to 30 points, a gap that continued to widen.
However, the government’s actions on election night were far from subtle if they had intended to swindle a win. Following the conclusion of the polling, reporting of results from approximately 15,000 polling stations across the nation was abruptly stopped. Some observers from the opposition were denied access to printed voting tally sheets and commanded to leave the polling stations.
The opposition’s own tally, assembled from gathered tally sheets, displayed a significant win for González. González took 67 per cent of votes versus Maduro’s 30 per cent, a considerable variance from the formal results proclaiming Maduro’s victory at 51.2 per cent over 44.2 per cent.
Despite mounting global pressures, the government-regulated electoral council has not revealed a voting breakdown. The disruption in the counting process has been attributed to a cyber attack from North Macedonia, according to Attorney-General Tarek Saab.
The government’s strategy of oppression has been executed more cleverly than its dubious conduct during the election. Maduro has effectively utilised tools of state control such as the armed forces, the Bolivarian National Guard (a military law enforcement entity), paramilitary groups, and three disparate intelligence services.
The founder of Venezuela’s “Bolivarian Revolution,” Chávez, revamped the military and security services following a botched coup in 2002. The old system of vertical commands was replaced with a hub-and-spoke system that distributed power among numerous generals and dispersed troops throughout the country, making it challenging for the military to oppose the president.
“The generals operate more like interconnected nodes in a network as opposed to a hierarchy,” narrates a former high-ranking Venezuelan military officer who defected a few years ago. “Generals play a crucial role in connecting a political, economic, or criminal group who can represent the regime, they are not merely commanders who mobilise troops.”
In Venezuela, loyalty within military ranks is often rewarded through consistent promotions. This has resulted in an estimated number of around 2,000 generals and admirals serving in the nation’s active military, which boasts approximately 130,000 personnel. An exact count, however, remains difficult to determine. Many studies, spearheaded by research institutions and advocacy organisations, have shed light on the military’s involvement in key economic sectors, with a notable emphasis on the indispensable oil industry.
In addition, the military has been implicated in illicit gold mining operations in the south Amazon region, and is also known for providing protective services for drug traffickers dealing in cocaine whilst maintaining control of ports. National security, particularly in terms of managing civil protests, is chiefly handled by the Bolivarian National Guard, alongside the national police, intelligence sectors, and armed civilian forces known as “colectivos”.
The idea of potential disunity within security forces or concealed conversations with influential individuals such as the long-tenured defence minister, Vladimir Padrino, often piques the curiosity of foreign governments and analysts. However, these speculations have so far proven baseless. In 2019, opposition figure, Juan Guaidó, encouraged a military rebellion, following alleged private reassurances from Padrino of his support, but the effort was not successful.
An ex-high-ranking military officer speaks of Padrino’s elusive nature, likening him to soap. He recounts Padrino as someone who can express solidarity whilst preparing for your arrest immediately after. According to Harold Trinkunas, deputy director at Stanford University’s Center for International Security and Cooperation, top-ranking officers are highly motivated to back the regime because of their fear of being held responsible for crimes committed during its tenure.
One anonymous senior US official has declined to discuss any ongoing confidential negotiations with Padrino, who has maintained his position as defence portfolio holder and chief operational commander of the armed forces since 2014. However, he does acknowledge the military pressure both from Maduro’s regime and the internal political climate of Venezuela, and suggests that the military leadership’s influence will be crucial in the upcoming weeks’ events, though their stance remains uncertain at this stage.
Having honed his skills in Havana in the 1980s, Maduro has had a long-standing alliance with Cuban intelligence advisers. These experts have formed a significant presence within his inner circle for many years, offering personal protection as well as conducting detailed counter-intelligence operations. Their primary objective is to monitor any disloyalty signs within the military. It is worth noting that, prior to the elections, about half of the country’s political prisoners were from the armed forces, as reported by Foro Penal.
In recent times, images of possible targets of the so-called “Operation Knock Knock” have circulated on social media. This operation refers to a strategy where opposition members are intimidated by unexpected visits from security forces in their dwellings. The onus of executing these operations has been on the police and intelligence authorities, with the military staying relatively inactive in their barracks.
As stated by Gonzalo Himiob, the director of Foro Penal, this tactic aims to oppress without discretion. This is done to destabilise government-deemed protest leaders while inciting fear within the populace.
The global reaction to the election and the subsequent repression has been rather unremarkable thus far. Several international powers, including the US and the EU, along with numerous Latin American governments, have not acknowledged Maduro’s re-election. They have asked for concrete proof to validate his win. However, no timeframe has been set for the voting tallies to be produced by Caracas, and it is unclear what the consequences will be in the absence of this evidence.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has publicly stated that there is substantial evidence supporting González’s election victory and has conveyed his congratulations. However, US officials were prompt in stating that they would not accept González as the president-elect or introduce new sanctions at this stage.
US and European decision-makers reportedly feel limited by their previous failed attempts on Venezuela. The “maximum-pressure” economic sanctions during the Trump era neither removed Maduro nor improved the deep-seated economic crisis. A 2019 US-led initiative to acknowledge Guaidó, the former national assembly leader, as the rightful president of Venezuela, also did not succeed.
Now, questions are being raised about the effectiveness of the Biden administration’s negotiation efforts with Maduro. Confidential discussions in Qatar led to an agreement in September 2023 that sanctions would be lifted if Maduro ensured a fair and free election. Although most economic sanctions were lifted the month following the agreement, some were reinstated six months later. This action was taken as the US accused the Maduro government of not fully adhering to the agreement, citing the banning of specific candidates and the suppression of the opposition campaign.
According to a high-ranking official in the US, the Biden administration is dedicated to reviewing and fine-tuning its strategic use of sanctions towards Venezuela. The official remarked that Venezuela’s actions or lack thereof concerning the country’s electoral procedure will undoubtedly impact the U.S.’s perspective. They stressed that respect for Venezuelan citizens’ voting rights is a belief they strongly uphold, a stance shared by many of their allies.
Regarding the possibility of revoking the personal licenses given to Western oil and gas companies to extract and export oil from Venezuela, a significant benefit for Maduro’s regime, the U.S. has concluded that this isn’t currently an option. This decision comes despite the fact that these licenses contributed to an uptick in production from a 2020 low, allowing for an output of almost 852,000 barrels per day in July, as per data from auxiliary sources in the monthly OPEC report.
However, Moisés Naím, a Venezuelan author and columnist residing in Washington, has pointed out the failure or nonexistence of the international community upholding democratic norms. He references an instance where the Organisation of American States was indecisive in its resolution demanding Venezuela release comprehensive election results, due to abstention from Colombia and Brazil and absence from Mexico.
Brazil, among the group of leftist Latin American countries trying to facilitate negotiation between Maduro and his opposition, sparked surprise when president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva deemed disagreements following an election as “normal”, suggesting a court intervention which is highly biased towards Maduro.
Opposition strength, dwindling support for the government, and passionate protests are seen by several commentators as indicators of declining support for the Maduro regime from various societal groups, with the regime allegedly tampering with an election result.
“Though he doesn’t appear to be rejoicing in his success. He looks more like someone truly on edge… he seems to have completely crumbled,” comments Michael Shifter, former head of the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based think-tank, regarding Maduro’s demeanour post-election.
Despite the turbulent situations, it’s worth noting that Maduro refused an offer from Panama to assist him in moving to a third country just over a week ago.
The opposition is maintaining a strong front, with Machado urging Venezuelans to remain hopeful. However, her team remains reticent about their plans, only indicating that new stages of their challenge will be launched in due course. At present, they are dedicated to keeping Venezuela in the global spotlight. The swearing-in of the president for his third term is not scheduled until January, providing room for discussion.
Machado, standing her ground, informed Mexican press that Maduro’s administration lacks all legitimacy, having only force to its credit. She insisted that their peaceful public movement must continue.
She further stated, “The longevity of this situation is unknown…still, the end result will be a liberated Venezuela.”
However, many experts doubt that diplomatic efforts or international pressure will have any effect on a government that previously weathered political isolation with aid from Russia and China.
Oliver Stuenkel, a professor of international relations at the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Sao Paulo, commented that the Brazil-Colombia-Mexico mediation efforts are likely to be futile, much like past efforts over the last ten years.
Stuenkel also observed that it’s “rather handy” for the U.S to leave this problem to local forces, so it doesn’t have to get involved.
He concluded, “Ultimately, the Venezuelan government understands that the global community’s interest is temporary.” – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024.