The political sphere in Ireland saw a surprising return of the old stalwarts, startling many. Assumptions often build political progress. The conventional belief was that the moderate parties would underperform and Sinn Féin would excel, yet events unfolded in an opposite manner. The ebb and flow of political momentum depends, not on total figures, but on comparative numbers. These expectations, particularly evident in European or local elections, decide the trajectory for the imminent faceoff.
Worldwide, this divergence between predictions and actual outcomes catalyses political stimulus, which could veer in either direction. To illustrate, in South Africa, majority of individuals anticipated a weak performance by the ANC, however, their show was even worse. Despite maintaining their status as the dominant party with a 40 percent vote share, the general consensus is that the sunset of the ANC era is nigh. In India, despite the ethnonationalist BJP’s confidence over being the unanimous choice, the voters had a different say, subverting the narrative of Narendra Modi as an invincible force.
The European story follows a similar vein. The moderate parties emerged as winners on paper, yet the performance of anti-establishment rebels was significant enough to alter the political tide. The drive has taken a new turn. Approxiamtely 25 per cent of the 300 million or so European voters endorsed an anti-establishment nationalistic agenda.
In countries like Germany, Italy, and France, the forerunners in conventional politics, nationalist and anti-immigrant parties made substantial progress. The AfD, previously regarded as a radical group, managed to secure 15 per cent of the German vote. Giorgia Meloni’s post-fascist Fratelli d’Italia won about 29 per cent of the vote, with Matteo Salvini’s right-leaning Lega bagging a further 9 per cent. France bore the strongest anti-establishment sentiment, as evidenced two weeks earlier in this column, with Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National seizing more than 31 per cent of the vote, over twice that of President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party.
Politics is often a fluctuating battle. It isn’t sufficient to base conclusions merely on static figures; it’s critical to analyse the evolving scenario. The narrative isn’t about the actual result, but the journey taken to reach it. When the momentum sways, the entire game alters.
The animated domain of politics reveals three strategies for triumphing in elections. Initially, you can achieve victory by seizing the majority of seats. Another strategy involves outsmarting your opponents and swaying the argument in your favour. Lastly, if you’re of a rebellious spirit, you can attempt to provoke an immediate reaction from the ruling class.
In that context, Le Pen has been victorious in implementing all three strategies. Macron has laid the groundwork for European politics in the forthcoming years by surprising the French citizens with an unplanned election. Adopting a manoeuvre from De Gaulle’s strategy book, Macron is questioning the French populace on whether this is what they truly desire. As mandated by the Fifth Republic’s constitution, such is an action that appropriately fits an all-powerful president’s role. The president is responsible for determining the subsequent course of action and resolving any standstill. Such immediate and firm action, however, requires a level of self-assuredness that not all presidents possess.
The decision is indeed risky, but taking risks has always been Macron’s forte. He has challenged the Rassemblement National with an assertive move, setting the stage for a confrontation. The unplanned election has been scheduled for June 30th. The future of France’s politics hangs in the balance, especially if Le Pen manages to duplicate the success she enjoyed in the EU elections in a fortnight’s time. France will be in a predicament since parliament, which manages national affairs, will be at odds with the president who continues to oversee foreign policy; leading to a stalemate.
Macron is challenging those voters who may have utilised the European elections to voice their dissatisfaction, essentially telling them, “Alright, let’s put an end to this immature behaviour and act with maturity.” His platform advocates for a cross-party coalition to counter the far-right, creating a broad alliance straddling the centre-right and left, all under the guise of safeguarding the Fifth Republic.
The aftermath of recent developments can be described as calamitous. Over the last seven days, all factions, with the exception of Le Pen’s, have demonstrated palpable alarm. The moderate left, primarily followers of the late François Mitterrand’s socialism, are disbanded, as a significant portion of central conservatives, namely Les Républicans, who once supported Jacques Chirac, select an alliance with far right groups. Populist groups have experienced a surge in momentum. Should Macron’s efforts to formulate this grand union falter – which currently seems probable – right wing populists across Europe will gain confidence. The next strategic move for them is clear: to safeguard their own interests, central political parties will deviate towards the nationalists’ stance.
Within Europe, right-wing factions that oppose the establishment will focus their attention on climate change – a perceived vulnerability of the centre. The issue of climate change has increasingly been viewed as a burden by the population, particularly so in Germany, where the expense of home refurbishment has burdened individuals already coping with general price inflation. Nationalists recognise that climate change, though a contentious topic, is a straightforward win. The issue feels abstract, whilst the monetary consequences of environmentally conscious decisions are felt immediately. A noticeable absentee from this year’s European election campaigns, in stark contrast to four years prior, was Greta Thunberg, as significant numbers of young voters in Germany and France demonstrated their support for populist entities.
Centrist factions erroneously presume that under-thirties are committed environmentalists – they are mistaken. The critical aspects are, in fact, energy and trajectory. The electorate’s standpoint four years ago is insignificant, but its future direction will dictate the victors of tomorrow.
In terms of economics, right-wing factions within Europe are distinct from their American counterparts in that they advocate for an expansive government. They desire increased taxes, enhanced social security, and greater government expenditure. Similar to American populism, they desire heightened protectionism against China in commerce and stricter boundary control in terms of immigration. Supporters of Trump push for reduced government intervention and lower taxes, in stark contrast, followers of Meloni and Le Pen demand heightened intervention, increased security, and raised taxes for everyone, excluding themselves.
If the global political climate swings towards conservatism, or if the middle ground grabs some elements from the populist movement to remain relevant, Ireland might experience some trouble. Embracing protectionist measures could spell disaster for us. Over the past three decades, for the first time in history, Ireland’s economy has successfully challenged the limitations of being a small nation. Being small means your domestic market is never large enough to generate substantial wealth. To sell on a large scale, nations of our size need to engage in trade with much larger counterparts, under fair terms. Globalisation enabled this. Our historical economic record reveals no other instance of a country peacefully achieving what Ireland managed to do through free trade – access to the wealth of other nations. Traditionally, one country would have to forcefully take over another to mine its riches. In the last thirty years, Ireland has done this through commerce, doing peacefully what previously was only achieved through warfare. Reverting to protectionism and tariff impositions would lead to severe consequences for us.
As we attempt to comprehend the recent events in Ireland, we should remember to factor in the global political pace. To draw an analogy, Canadian hockey legend Wayne Gretzky, upon being questioned on his scoring frequency, stated, “I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.” This can be interpreted as an emphasis on momentum.
Currently in Europe, the political vigour is with the populist right. If Macron’s audacious venture on June 30th doesn’t succeed, this political force will get even stronger, resulting in implications for all.