Over 20 years ago, Loic Laveissiere recalls picketing against Jean-Marie Le Pen’s radical-right wing, National Front, which was widely considered an extremist party at the fringes of politics when he was just 17.
Fast forward to the present day, under the stewardship of Marine Le Pen, National Front (now known as National Rally or RN) has grown to be the leading party in French politics. The possibility next month is that it might assume power within the prime minister’s office.
Many consider the current political turbulence in France as President Emmanuel Macron’s own creation, triggered by his decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call for a sudden parliamentary election. This decision was in reaction to the European elections outcomes earlier this month, where the far right garnered 31 per cent of the votes and double Macron’s centrists’ seats.
Laveissiere, currently 39 and employed in northern Paris, expresses his displeasure at RN’s imminent rise to power, alluding to a peculiar mood prevalent in today’s France. The first of two rounds of voting will take place on June 30th, where candidates are required to secure 12.5 per cent of votes in electoral districts to move to the second round’s runoff.
Polls indicate that RN, a party with strong anti-immigration and Eurosceptic sentiments, remains as the prevalent favourite heading towards the elections. Its primary competition is the Popular Front, a large coalition of left-wing parties, including Raphael Glucksmann’s center-left party and the radical France Unbowed led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. These parties have quickly join forces to thwart Le Pen’s party from assuming power. This two-horse race between the far right and left has left little room for Macron’s centrist faction, which was thrown off balance by his snap election decision.
“People are baffled by Macron’s move,” says Yves Bertoncini, former director of the Jacques Delors Institute think tank and an experienced French official. Bertoncini believes Macron gambled that a hasty election would shift voters towards the centre, despite the declining popularity of his own presidential coalition in recent polls. He questions the feasibility of such a drastic mindset change amongst voters within a month, declaring “It will not work at all.”
The National Rally (RN) is poised to claim over 200 seats, but may not reach the 289 required for an majority in Parliament. The coalition led by Macron, despite being in power, lacks full majority and risks being overthrown. Main voter anxieties relate to living costs and immigration, but the RN’s increasing power can be attributed to a prevalent anti-elite sentiment. According to Bertoncini, Macron is increasingly viewed as a symbol of the detached elite.
“There are two extreme choices available to the French populace, during a trying period,” remarked Jerome Guitton, a 62-year-old Parisian. He expressed concerns these elections may potentially result in a deadlocked parliament, a situation he feels would create issues. While he personally has no qualms with Macron, he opined that the public’s overexpectation from the government should be checked and they should focus more on what they can do rather than what the government can do for them.
Shahin Vallee, an economist who was previously an adviser to Macron during his tenure as economy minister, feels that the president was more receptive to guidance earlier. He acknowledged that a sudden election would have eventually been inevitable this year due to probable challenges in budget approval. However, he believes that the timing has disadvantaged those wanting to launch a thorough campaign or present a fresh political viewpoint. According to Vallee, this election is smoothing the path for Le Pen.
Macron’s centrist party is feeling squeezed out due to the portrayal of the election as a choice between the left or far-right.
Watching a Jordan Bardella video on his phone, reflects a man in a café in one of Paris’s affluent, right-leaning areas. The RN’s 28-year-old president, Bardella, has attracted a following of 1.7 million on TikTok, where he smartly includes the party’s agenda in his selfie-filled videos with supporters.
Should the far right secure a majority, Bardella, who has climbed the ranks through the youth wing of the RN, will assume the position of prime minister, with Le Pen guiding matters from behind the scenes. Bardella symbolises the culmination of Le Pen’s persistent endeavour to move her party towards the mainstream. Free from the potentially off-putting Le Pen family name, the young man from a deprived suburb in northern Paris is now the fresh face of the far right.
As France’s elections draw near, apprehension heightens in the vibrant, diverse citadel of Marseille. Jean-Yves Camus, an expert on France’s far-right political landscape, conjectures that the RN’s actions remain uncertain should they seize control of the Matignon, the abode of the French prime minister.
Macron’s tenure at the Élysée Palace extends till 2027’s presidential elections and hence, should RN secure authority in the parliament, or lead a minority government, a power struggle between the two establishments would ensue. While retaining control over international relations, Macron’s domestic policies could be stalled by an RN government, potentially opening up a dispute with the European Union over budget allocations.
Camus adds, “The National Rally’s influence on French politics hinges on whether they secure a partial or full majority.” With a strong likelihood that Le Pen will further moderate her party to avoid alienating voters ahead of her anticipated fourth presidential candidacy – one that Macron cannot challenge after two consecutive terms – RN may refrain from attempting to push its more radically extreme policies. Instead, they might prioritise culture-war politics, law and order, and the neutralisation of Islamist extremists.
Camus further notes, “The extreme right has not participated in any French government since 1945. Consequently, many affiliated with this political ideology perceive themselves as outcasts, marginalised individuals. I believe that a number of them seek reprisal, not through assaults on individuals, but by introducing laws that confront the foundational values and constitution of our country.”
Bardella, as the far right leader, has expressed that attaining an absolute majority is critical for effective governance in France.
Bertoncini suggests that Macron, according to some theories, thinks of his gamble as a two-way wager. If he gains a fresh majority, it could halt the far-right’s increasing influence. However, if the National Rally triumphs, they would have to assume governance duties and could potentially fail and crumble before the Presidential elections in three years, a speculation that Bertoncini believes could be “half accurate.”
This approach is fraught with risk. If the National Rally edges out a narrow majority, they are likely to attribute any failure to impose their policies on the necessity of counterbalancing power with Macron. “Marine Le Pen would probably argue: ‘We tried to deliver, but we were impeded by the French President,'” he comments.
Vallee notes that the National Rally has already begun to retract or abandon some previous pledges. “It’s beginning to seem that they recognise ruling isn’t so simple. They acknowledge Macron’s ploy of allowing them to run and potentially fail,” he remarks.
Baudouin de La Touanne a 21-year old Parisian law student mentioned that the National Rally tends to obsess over immigration politics. He mentions, “It’s my opinion that their politics are too narrowly focussed on the issue of migration. While it’s a significant topic, it can’t be the basis for all political strategy.”
Macron’s lack of popularity among the public has prompted his Renaissance party and its allies to minimise his involvement in the campaign. All eyes are on Gabriel Attal, the 35-year-old Prime Minister appointed by Macron at the beginning of this year, who is hoped to bring a much-needed resurgence of fortunes.
Many, like Livia Cohen Tannoudji (30), who is part of the publishing industry, are upset with Macron for initiating the election. She questioned the rising anti-Semitism emanating from both the far right and elements of the far left. “I feel as if we’re trapped in a place fraught with risk,” she notes. Despite her distaste, she was preparing to grudgingly vote for Macron’s coalition, viewing it as the lesser of the evils. “Thoughts about leaving my homeland cross my mind… I identify strongly as French, but if France fails to safeguard me, I might have to reconsider living here,” she asserts.