During a public encounter in Brittany on June 18th, an elderly woman accused French President, Emmanuel Macron, of throwing the country into turmoil. Macron answered her charges soundly, contending that there were no alternatives available. He explained the dire need for the dissolution of the French National Assembly on June 9th to avoid total chaos.
Nevertheless, two weeks post this incident, France seems on a collision course with the pandemonium Macron had hoped to avert. All across the political spectrum, divisions are emerging, with the exception of Marine Le Pen’s far-right organisation, the National Rally (RN). It was RN’s victory in the European election that initiated Macron’s decision. As the snap election looms, anxiety prevails in France concerning its future prospects.
The chaos is magnified by the fact that it was three advisers of Macron, self-proclaimed “musketeers”, who reportedly originated the idea of the dissolution. One of them is a former journalist while the remaining two come from public relations backgrounds. This revelation has only escalated the concern amongst the public.
The media, largely controlled by Vincent Bolloré, a right-wing, fundamentalist Catholic industrialist and media tycoon, has been repeatedly portraying RN in a favourable light. Bolloré is also allegedly behind the switch in allegiance of Eric Ciotti, ex-leader of the conservative party, Les Républicains (LR), to Le Pen’s faction.
The situation is riddled with accusations of betrayal against not just Ciotti but also Marion Maréchal, Le Pen’s niece, who deserted her mentor, Eric Zemmour, to rejoin her family’s political front, following her representation of Zemmour’s extreme right party, Reconquest, in the European elections.
The distressing state of affairs was eloquently summarised by Raphael Glucksmann, a Socialist MEP, during a radio talk show on France Inter, where he expressed his concern about France being governed by the Le Pen household.
The New Popular Front (NFP), a coalition proposed by left-leaning factions as a solution to political issues, is underperforming. Its leadership comprised primarily of the fiery Jean-Luc Mélenchon, a 72-year old head of the far-left France Unbowed (LFI) party. Mélenchon, infamous for his robust support of Gaza Palestinians, has widely been criticised for anti-Semitic sentiments. His assertive leadership style led him to eliminate five LFI delegates from the previous Assembly due to their criticism towards him.
After a loss in the 2022 legislative elections, the centre-right liberal coalition led by Macron, was reduced to a minority. Consequently, the erstwhile Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne had to resort to the constitution-granted legislating by decrees, a total of 23 times.
The NFP remains tight-lipped about their choice for the position of prime minister, should they win the elections. This move compares to inviting voters on a voyage without a specified destination. It’s noteworthy that Nupes, a similar left-wing coalition established for 2022 legislative elections, fell apart, casting doubt over the NFP’s future.
Considering the governance style of Macron’s centre-right liberal coalition as undemocratic, his political detractors have been eager to topple the government by initiating a no-confidence motion in the autumn, a disgrace Macron has aimed to circumvent.
Amidst all this, Macron revelled in the mayhem, as he confided to a close associate, after the coalition’s disintegration,” I’ve prepared for this for weeks, and I’m ecstatic. I lobbed the bomb into their midst. Let’s see how they handle it”.
The exact reference of his comment remains uncertain. However, Macron, who in 2017 took an oath to damage France’s traditional two-party political setup, aspired to be a singular force against the far-right.
Despite his intentions, the far-right seems to be on the rise. According to an Ifop opinion poll this week, Macron’s Renaissance party sits in third place with 18 per cent voter intentions. RN has taken the lead with 33 per cent, growing to nearly 40 per cent when including the Reconquest and former LR members.
The NFP, which Le Pen disapprovingly describes as “an Islamo-leftist bloc” and “an abomination”, holds the second position at 28 per cent.
Several politicians from LFI consistently recount that Jean-Marie Le Pen, father of Marine Le Pen, together with ex-Waffen SS and anti-Gaullist OAS terrorists, formed the National Front in 1972. Marine Le Pen altered the party’s name in 2018 in an attempt to erase this historical imprint, yet she upheld her father’s fearful stance towards foreigners and Islam, whilst rejecting his anti-Semitic views.
Macron stirred up discontent among his followers when he symbolically threw a wrench in the gears. Members of Macron’s Renaissance party refuse to use his picture or name on their campaign materials, suggesting a growing discontent. Gabriel Attal, the Prime Minister, expressed disgruntlement about being uninformed about the dissolution, describing Macron’s move as heavy-handed. Yaël Braun-Pivet, the outgoing National Assembly’s Macronist speaker, publicly censured Macron for not opting for a governmental pact or coalition in lieu of his decision.
Marine Le Pen and potential future Prime Minister Jordan Bardella, her 28-year-old prodigy, communicate covert messages to their supporters. An instance of this was when Bardella iterated thrice during a TV debate that “77 per cent of rapes in Paris are committed by foreigners”, implying a lack of safety for French women at night.
Should the RN or NPF achieve an outright majority, Macron would be forced into an uncomfortable “cohabitation” with an individual he regards as a radical as the prime minister. If a definite majority is not achieved and Macron loses his assembly seat majority, the stability of France’s governance could come under threat, creating an almost ungovernable state. This was exactly what Gen Charles de Gaulle sought to avoid when he established the Fifth Republic in 1958.
In a time of ongoing crises in Ukraine and Israel-Palestine, coupled with an impending US election that might see Trump emerge victoriously, the potential paralysis of such a central European nation carries with it frightening implications for Europe, making Macron’s risky gamble a matter of grave concern.