After the European elections, Emmanuel Macron, in a surprising move, decided to schedule a non-essential parliamentary election during a politically weak moment. Le Monde reported a peculiar conversation in which Macron, when asked by an advisor if he was disheartened, responded with a smirk, saying he was far from it. He added that he’d been getting ready for weeks and was actually excited to see how the far-right would manage the “primed grenade” he’d thrown their way. The election’s timing was part of a daring strategy that baffled many.
Even though the Elysée Palace dismissed the conversation, Le Monde still backs their story, maintaining its truthfulness.
Being a daring risk-taker, Macron places immense trust in his political instincts despite lacking self-awareness. As one voter pointed out to Liberation, “He’s completely oblivious about the fact that people detest him.” His prime minister, Gabriel Attal, labeled his abrupt decision to call an election as “harsh,” while another minister felt as though they’d been “tossed beneath a bus”. His party members urged him to refrain from campaigning.
His ill-timed decision to call an election significantly and potentially affects France and the EU, mirroring David Cameron, the former British prime minister’s colossal mistake in 2016 of calling an unnecessary referendum on Brexit. This could be a moment of reckoning for France, similar to Brexit for the UK. Set up like Rishi Sunak’s unexpected general election, where he was trailing in polls, it could lead to a nearly complete parliamentary sweep.
Cameron, schooled at prestigious Eton, was confident, like Macron is currently, that he had the ability to personally shift the odds and disastrously misread the Brexit debate’s dynamics. He thought that it would work in his favor, thereby settling the Conservatives’ heated internal disputes over Europe. However, his actions sparked a fierce backlash that has divided his party and the country to this day.
Like Cameron, Macron, a graduate of France’s renowned Ecole Nationale d’Administration, exhibits an air of detached self-assuredness and invincibility. He has set in motion a series of events that could counterintuitively usher in the first far-right government in France since the Vichy era.
Biographer Tim Bale depicted Cameron as an immensely self-assured leader with a penchant for taking significant risks, distinctive among recent prime ministers. In reassuring Nick Clegg, former deputy prime minister, and ex-European Council president, Herman Van Rompuy, he was emphatic about his competency and his inevitable victory. He envisioned himself as a figure akin to Macron, shaping history by addressing, rather than appeasing, issues, and steering the debate.
Macron had a misconstrued perception, as evidenced in his interview with Le Figaro where he expressed disbelief that the far-right could replicate its European triumph in a local race. In his view, the election was an outlet for the far right’s venting and he spoke of heeding the unvoiced opinions of the masses. He planned to challenge the voters, but it was evident that he was not much of a listener, especially to the silent majority, and was more inclined to reprimand them.
In an enigmatic disclosure to Le Figaro, he referred to politics as a flux and he dismissed the relevance of opinion pools. He proclaimed that his decision signalled the start of a novel age. He was drawing from deep within, similar to Dev and his icon De Gaulle, seeking a unique understanding of the country’s essence that only he had.
Earlier in 2016, Macron pledged to face the far-right across Europe and France, with plans to ignite a “European renaissance” which would rejuvenate the EU and restore faith in it. This aspiration was not realised and his current Ensemble alliance is trailing in third place with about 20% support. The majority of its candidates are unlikely to get through to the second round of election.
Some pundits interpret Macron’s risk as an attempt not primarily to vanquish the Rassemblement National in the electoral contest, but to lay bare its inefficiencies and political naivety in the face of governance challenges. The proposal is that the French population would witness the economic turmoil and societal clashes that the RN would likely – whether as a minority or majority government – induce and subsequently reject them in the key 2027 presidential elections.
There’s no certainty that the electorate will behave as expected, imposing a prolonged period of hardship on the citizens of France. His fellow Europeans must also face the somber potential of yet another Victor Orban in a position of power. As Le Figaro articulates, Europe is held captive by Macron’s risky venture. Historically, Macron’s judgement is likely to be as severe as that of Cameron. Regardless of his personal condemnation of the extreme right, he’s the one paving the way for the RN’s potential ascendancy to governance, be it in the near future or in the presidential race of 2027.