Dear Sir,
Result analysis of the recent referendums by Pat Leahy has suggested that the ‘No’ votes could potentially be interpreted by the government as a sign of heavier social conservatism in Ireland than previously recognised. He argues that this could influence the direction of governmental policy in the run-up to the future election and possibly afterwards (March 16th).
This seems to be an unfavourable outcome for numerous voters and is also considered unjustified. Often, a wealth of significance is attributed to the rigid patterns of the referendum votes, which I previously thought were unalterable. There have been myriad arguments for the ‘No’ votes presented within these columns from commentators of a broad political spectrum, each potentially leading the Government in a definite direction of its own. It could be deemed a prejudiced interpretation to view these collectively as a push towards social conservatism. Most importantly, the focus of a constitutional referendum should be on the pertaining proposed amendment and should not implicitly involve a shift in the governmental direction as well.
However, if such a dispute arises concerning the direction of governmental policy, it should be noted that one argument for voting ‘No’ was the observation that the amendment proposal was poorly executed by the Government, despite it being relatively non-controversial.
Could the government, rather, interpret this result to indicate voters’ desire for well-thought-out progressive constitutional reform, expecting the government to handle it with the warranted caution and diligence, instead of botching things up?
On a related note, commentators such as Newton Emerson, Gerald Howlin and Pat Leahy, have all touched upon a similar question: why do centre-right parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, continuously attempt to lean more towards the centre-left? In the history of Ireland’s independence, the formation of a centre-left government or even a coalition of the sort has never once occurred.
Yours etc,
Shane O’Rourke,
Cork.
In the year 2011, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil managed to secure 53.6 percent of the primary preference votes, but this figure dropped to 43.1 percent by 2020. From that point forward, persistent opinion polls have regularly demonstrated that their combined support hasn’t surpassed 40 percent.
Despite losing a considerable portion of their centre-right electorate, the two parties insist upon attracting centre-left constituents who are unlikely to ever vote for them. Recent referendums highlight not only the existence of a significant demand for centre-right policies, but also the potential scale of this demand.
It seems high time for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to redirect their efforts towards voters who will be more likely to support them, even if it means making the effort of appealing to those who rise early each day. The main question remains – are they willing and capable of undertaking this shift before the forthcoming general election in six months’ time?
Yours faithfully,
Jason Fitzharris
Swords – County Dublin.