The projections which suggest that Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) is unlikely to achieve an absolute majority in the French legislative elections have been rejected by her. She has raised concerns that failure to obtain such a mandate could lead to a chaotic political scenario.
As the situation stands, the National Rally and its associated parties are anticipated to secure between 190-250 of the total 577 seats in the National Assembly, based upon five surveys carried out from Wednesday to Friday. This would leave them well below the 289 seats needed to smoothly pass bills and implement their policies.
Speaking to national broadcaster CNews, Ms Le Pen confidently commented that the RN has a robust chance of securing an absolute majority, citing that in previous elections two years ago, they won over double the predicted amount of seats. Should no party obtain an absolute majority, which Ms Le Pen claims only the RN are capable of, a bill passing would be rendered impossible, resulting in a political stalemate she referred to as a “quagmire.”
She further warned of potential national stagnation that could last until president Emmanuel Macron can legally dissolve the parliament in a year’s time.
The left-wing alliance, New Popular Front, is now predicted to secure 140-200 seats, based on the five surveys conducted. Meanwhile, Mr Macron’s contingent is likely to bag between 95-162 seats.
France is currently contending with the fear of a far-right government taking power, something that they have successfully avoided for over half a century. This has led rival political parties to form a largely unified electoral defence in the face of this threat.
Tensions have been visible on the streets as the election campaign intensifies, with the Interior Minister, Gerald Darmanin, reporting over 50 assaults on politicians and campaigners, resulting in around 30 arrests. His analysis of the assailants revealed them to range from ultra-left and right-wing extremists, through members of various political factions, to individuals seemingly acting out in spontaneous anger. He has also raised the possibility of unrest on the night of the election, as numerous gatherings are planned.
501 districts remain up for election in Sunday’s run-offs. In the initial voting round, the National Rally and its partner parties secured outright wins in 39 districts after successfully attracting 33.2% of the overall vote.
Over 200 candidates have been withdrawn from the ballots through a strategic collaboration between Mr Macron’s centrist coalition and the New Popular Front. This move seeks to prevent the dispersion of the opposition to the extreme right and is part of an initiative named the Republican front in France. Evidently, this approach appears successful based on recent predictions. Earlier, estimates from polling agencies proposed a maximum of 305 seats for the National Rally and its allies following the conclusion of the first-round votes last weekend. Poll results were disclosed on Thursday by Ifop, Odoxa, and OpinionWay, followed by a poll from Elabe on Friday. On Wednesday, Toluna-Harris Interactive also shared its survey results.