In Starr County, Texas, which is the most Hispanic mainland county in the United States, deviating from the Democratic Party was once akin to social exclusion. Alberto Olivares, a 54-year-old former border patrolman who opted to diverge from the party in 2020, compares it to separating from kin. However, he states categorically, “The party no longer represents me.”
There is a noticeable change in the political landscape of Starr County. The county hasn’t shown support for a Republican presidential candidate in over a century, but there’s an emerging trend of voters shifting their loyalties. Back in 2012 and 2016, the border county favoured Democratic candidates, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, with 86% and 78% of votes respectively. However, support for the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, dwindled in 2020 with only 52% of the votes. Republican officials are optimistic that this trend might lead to the county turning red for the first time.
Olivares, who is vying for the position of county sheriff as the GOP candidate, firmly believes that the residents of the county, a vast majority of whom are Hispanic, are prepped to vote for a Republican president for the first time. “No matter their origin, whether Latino or Hispanic, they are primarily conservative,” he asserts.
Residency data show that of the Starr County population, almost 98% identify as Hispanic – a percentage superseded in the US only by Puerto Rico. The change in voting tendencies in Starr County appears to reflect an overarching shift amongst a voter group known for its loyal support for the Democratic Party, often drawn in by its reputation as the defender of civil rights and blue-collar workers.
Political analysts propose that this revolution is driven by a dwindling faith in party leadership, escalating economic anxieties, and disconnection from national Democrat policies that are perceived as a leftward shift on matters such as LGBT+ rights, abortion, and border control.
Ruy Texeira, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and co-author of ‘Where Have All the Democrats Gone?’, highlights a startling disconnection between underlying Hispanic expectations from their lives, their country, and their political parties, and the Democrats’ understanding of these expectations.
The voting behaviour of the Hispanic community in the US is rising in significance. In 2020, this demographic surpassed the 62 million mark, accounting for approximately one out of every five Americans. This group has now superseded the African-American population, becoming the country’s second largest ethnic group. The Pew Research Centre reveals an increase in eligible Hispanic voters from 14.3 million in 2000 to a projected 36.2 million in the current year, thereby doubling their share in the voter population to nearly 15%.
Hispanics are quite diverse, encompassing long-standing Republican-supporting Cuban-American voters, socially conservative evangelical Protestants, communities that have resided in the US for at least three generations, and a burgeoning middle class with varying concerns.
Nonetheless, in recent years, a defining trend has been observed – the waning excitement for the Democrats. The Democratic lead over Republicans in Hispanic voters reduced from 44 points in the 2012 presidential election to 38 points in 2016, and further down to 21 points in 2020.
Democratic candidate Biden experienced dwindling support prior to his exit from the campaign in July, with one Pew survey equating his levels of support to those of Donald Trump.
However, the appointment of vice-president Kamala Harris has rekindled enthusiasm amongst supporters, and the nomination of Minnesota’s governor Tim Walz could be impactful within working class rural communities, home to a significant portion of Latinos. The duo plan to tour cities across key swing states, including Phoenix in Arizona and Las Vegas in Nevada – locales where the Hispanic vote holds considerable weight.
Despite diminishing ardent support among this crucial group setting off warning signs amongst campaigners, the Democrats are still expected to secure the majority of the Hispanic vote. Democrat pollster Fernand Amandi rejects notions of a “departing” Hispanic electorate; however, he does recognise a potential “erosion” threat.
If the race remains tight, such erosion could have substantial implications, particularly within a handful of battleground states likely instrumental in determining the next White House resident.
Two US swing states, Nevada and Arizona, have Latino communities that make up more than one in five voters, registering at 22% and 25% respectively. Other states also host a significant Latino population: 6% in North Carolina, Georgia and Pennsylvania, 5% in Wisconsin and 4% in Michigan. Although largely Democratic in their political leanings, Latinos are shifting allegiance, remarks Eduardo Gamarra, a political science academic at Florida International University and head of the Latino Public Opinion Forum. This shift, he suggests, could be decisive in the 2024 polls.
The rise in Hispanic support for Trump between 2016 and 2020 caught many Democrats by surprise. This surge happened even though Trump had labelled some Mexicans as “criminals” and made the construction of a border wall in southern US and stern policies on illegal entries central to his campaigns.
Post 2020, Trump’s support among Latinos has grown despite his continued criticism of immigrants, accusing them of “tainting our country’s bloodline”, and proposing large-scale deportations.
On the other hand, Biden’s approach to border management appears to be more compassionate, revoking policies from Trump’s tenure that led to family separations and promoting parole for entry into the country. However, a liberal perspective on immigration no longer holds as much appeal for Latino voters. Many blame Biden for an escalade in unlawful immigration at America’s southern edge. Crossing attempts spiked to unparalleled levels in December but have significantly decreased as the administration tightens its controls.
In Rio Grande City, Claudia Alcazar, recently converted to Republicanism, disagrees with the idea that their Latino heritage should compel the community to be empathetic towards immigrants and the Democratic party. She argues that it’s naive to believe Hispanic heritage guarantees political alignment. The US’s tendency to categorise political opinions based on ethnicity is not replicated elsewhere, she points out, emphasising on unity. Analysts suggest that Democrats’ misconceptions about voter motivations today, particularly believing that border policies would maintain Latino support, exhibits a larger misunderstanding.
Mark Jones, a political science lecturer from Rice University suggests that identity politics is a key motivator within the progressive sector of the Democratic Party. This has caused Democrats to believe that all Latino individuals share the same identification.
Jones highlights, however, that many Latinos have resided in the US for numerous generations. They predominantly speak English over Spanish and have a preference towards American football in comparison to football. They do not necessarily relate their experiences to those newly entering the country.
The Latino vote is importantly influenced by their economic conditions and like other voter groups, inflation has made an impact on their lives. This has led some Latinos to hold Biden accountable.
In Midland, a west Texas town situated over 800km from Starr County, resident Andy de la Rosa voted in the 2020 presidential election, backing Trump. De la Rosa, who is employed in the oilfield services, recalls the event being a critical political affair. He recollected his opinion that a Biden triumph would highlight Trump’s successful tenure.
Justin Esquibel (37), a colleague of De La Rosa, agrees with his sentiment concerning the nation’s decline – with escalating costs of essential items and apparent erosion of the middle class.
Midland County has a history of being a Republican stronghold. It’s also notable that along with a 43% rise in the Hispanic population in 2020, Trump’s vote percentage within the county rose from 75% to 77%. The voting turnout were at its highest.
Hispanic voters from the younger generation like De la Rosa and Esquibel show a shift in priorities. As per UnidosUS, a Hispanic civil rights and advocacy organisation, out of the total latino voters in November, one-fifth will be first-time voters.
Mike Madrid, a GOP political advisor and author of The Latino Century, suggests that there has been a remarkable rise in third and identifiable fourth-generation Latino voters who don’t agree with the Democratic Party’s ethnic and racial standpoint which their doctrine is fundamentally built upon.
The populist economic stance that appeals to many working-class voters is becoming more attractive to the Hispanic community, as seen in their shift towards the Republican Party. Similar to the wider populace, Hispanic voters are dividing their backing along educational lines, with those holding college degrees supporting Biden and others, who form the majority, gravitating elsewhere.
The term ‘Latinx’, pushed by certain liberal sections as a gender-neutral alternative, has received backlash within the community, leading some to suggest that Democrats may need to overhaul their approach. Texeira points out that the Democrats’ current presentation and focus on various social and cultural matters resonate more with white, liberal college graduates. He suggests that this alienates many voters who do not understand or identify with this discourse.
In a rally at his Miami-based Doral golf club, Trump played on fears of radical leftist governance to secure Latino support. He argued that Harris’ perceived Californian socialism would not be well received by Floridians.
Once a key swing state, Florida has turned steadily Republican, a shift led much by the state’s Latino voters. Cuban Americans from Miami, long-time advocates of the GOP due to its hardline stance against Castro’s government, have been joined by other key groups like Venezuelans and Colombians. This gradual leaning towards the right is most evident in Miami-Dade, Florida’s largest county and a representative gauge for national Latino vote trends. Its support for Democrats has dropped from 63% in 2016 to 53% in 2020.
According to Armando Ibarra, leader of Miami Young Republicans, this shift is due to the perception that Democrats are less critical of left-wing governments in Hispanic countries. He suggests that the Democratic Party’s marked swing to the left brings back unpleasant memories of native countries for many Hispanic voters, which discourages their support.
Republicans have evidently become more adept at attracting the attention of Latino voters. Following his arraignment in a Miami courtroom on charges concerning the mismanagement of classified documents in June 2023, Trump immediately visited Versailles. Here, he drew parallels between his situation and political prosecution in Latin America.
However, last month outside Versailles, doubts about the Republican’s endeavours to lure voters were still prevalent. Misael Vega (54), a Cuban native who relocated to Florida three years ago and currently works as an Uber driver, lamented that some Latinos had lost touch with their origins.
“They identify as Republicans today, but what’s the reason behind their Republican identity?” he questioned. “Seemingly, because there’s no necessity for them to extend any help to me and they find no fault with Trump.”
The appeal of the former president is a subject of controversy. Trump is less popular among Latinos compared to many Republican contenders in congressional borderline districts. Republican governors like Greg Abbott from Texas and Ron DeSantis from Florida have outperformed him.
“Trump is essentially an obstacle to the further expansion of Latinos,” states Madrid. “He’s not the persuasive figure leading them to the fold.”
New activists
With fewer than three months until the day of voting, Democrats are optimistic that the ascent of Harris to the pinnacle of the ticket could check, or even reverse, the decline of support among Latinos for the party.
Amandi, the Democrat pollster who backed both of Obama’s successful runs, states that her nomination “has not only redefined and revived the race but has genuinely energised the electorate in a manner that was unexpected by many to be so immediate and extensively.”
Enthusiasts affirm that grassroots campaigning is taking off: telephonic campaigns targeting Latino and Latina voters initiated at the end of July raised substantial sums of money and enlisted large numbers of new activists.
“The only campaign that understands the political power of Latinos and is working diligently to win their support is the Harris-Walz campaign as we have no plans of taking their votes for granted,” claims Maca Casado, a campaign spokeswoman.
They believe that Harris’s commendable history of campaigning in Latino communities in California, the state with the largest Latino population, will give them an edge.
Matt Barreto, a campaign advisor and Democratic pollster, has highlighted Harris’s firm grasp on winning the Latino vote, largely due to her multiple election wins in California, including victories over Latino candidates. The polls indicate that she is particularly popular amongst independent Latino voters, as well as younger and female members of the community.
Simultaneously, the Democratic party has amped up its promotional campaigns in closely contested regions, focusing on engaging younger voters at nightclubs, bowling alleys, and football pitches. The aggressive campaigning plan of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’s Bold PAC for the first time includes financing field campaigns.
Congresswoman Linda Sánchez, responsible for spearheading the CHC’s campaigning initiatives, has also seen increased interest since Harris’s nomination. Sanchez notes a surge in PAC fundraising by over 60 per cent as well as a growing enthusiasm amongst young Latinos for the presence of a woman of colour on the ticket.
While the sudden rise of Harris and the subsequent selection of Walz as her running mate mean limited polling has taken place so far, existing surveys look promising. An FIU poll conducted in July showed Harris’s approval rating amongst Latinos stood at 53 per cent, with Biden at 50 per cent and Trump at 43 per cent.
The week’s first major poll post Harris’s nomination showed her holding an 18-point lead over Trump amongst Latino voters in key states. Although this represents a significant improvement on Biden’s figures, it still falls short of the relatively tepid margin he achieved in 2020.
Congresswoman Sylvia Garcia, who represents Houston, reports a significant rise in enthusiasm amongst Latino voters following Harris’s nomination. She believes that the selection of Walz, a former teacher, as running mate will help to further enhance this.
Garcia emphasised their history of backing working-class individuals, telling reporters, “This is a marathon, but I believe momentum is on our side.”
P.S. Catch up daily with our latest In The News podcast episodes.