When Keir Starmer looks at the numerous Labour MPs in the House of Commons on the forthcoming Tuesday, the scene may transport him back to December 2019. At that time, the wide agreement amongst political commentators was that Boris Johnson’s dominant position with an 80-seat majority signified a potential double-term in the wilderness for Labour. Furthermore, his leadership position was very much in the balance following their Hartlepool byelection loss, just three years back.
In an unexpected turn of events, Labour now has an equally impressive landslide win as mirroring Tony Blair’s victory in 1997. Unlike Blair’s decade long hard-fought reforms and modernisation, in less than half the time, Starmer seems to have successfully brought about a parallel reformation within the party.
Notably, assistance in this has also been provided by his Conservative adversaries. It’s certainly the most extraordinary transformation in British electoral history since the last monumental victory in 1906 by the Liberal party.
But it’s worth mentioning that this Labour government is becoming a ruling power not on a tide of hope or enthusiasm. The fresh prime minister is a rather improbable hero figure. And most importantly, despite the significant increase in seats, that can’t completely overshadow an otherwise mundane reality.
The votes this time for Labour have failed to reach the numbers achieved by Starmer’s predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn, in 2017, who after getting expelled from the party, became the successful independent member for Islington North. Astonishingly, Labour’s popularity slightly dwindled during a fairly unenthusiastic campaign. Two shadow cabinet ministers were defeated, losing their seats to a green party candidate and a pro-Palestinian independent respectively on Thursday night.
What’s more, Starmer’s personal majority dwindled due to a left-wing challenge. The most substantial boost to Labour’s huge majority came from an unexpected source – Nigel Farage’s Reform party, whose splitting of the right-wing votes resulted in Labour’s winning seats they could previously only dream of.
The peculiar aspects of the UK’s first-past-the-post voting structure were palpable this week, though they will inevitably fade into obscurity once the new government takes charge. Advocates for this system argue its strength lies in its ability to provide clear-cut conclusions instead of the misunderstood results and post-election commitments seen in proportional representation. However, evidence suggests the first-past-the-post method is unsuitable for mirroring the ever-changing and increasingly fragmented UK political scene, a trait present in many democratic nations including Ireland. The traditional binary party systems are experiencing a universal slump and Britain is not immune. Rather than the historical near-90 per cent vote share for Labour and the Conservatives, they achieved under 60 per cent combined in Thursday’s polls.
Normally, such a result would precipitate a coalition government, but in the UK, it can incite unpredictable variances. The forthcoming government will fully acknowledge that its substantial majority stands on a shaky base with an unparalleled amount of marginal seats potential game changers for the subsequent election. The chances of a three-term Blair-like governance appear bleak.
The Labour party must be aware of the mounting anti-establishment sentiment. Roughly 80 per cent of voters chose against the Conservative party, some strategically voting for either the Liberal Democrats or Labour to have a better chance of defeating the Tories. Others, supporters of Reform, voted out of dissatisfaction over Brexit and immigration issues. Scottish National Party received a surprising backlash from the Scottish voters, and Unionists in Northern Ireland abandoned the Democratic Unionist Party. Labour must heed this widespread sense of disaffection and disillusionment, which could very soon turn against them.
So, what is the incoming government, pledging “change”, genuinely going to deliver? Keir Starmer and his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, have safely transported the much-valued Labour’s polling advantage across the 40-day campaigning phase and onto Downing Street. Yet, they must now divulge their strategies. They are not entering with a strong hand. The obstacle list is exhaustive: a sluggish economy, a struggling National Health Service, a lack of housing, and expanding inequality. The cautiously phrased promises on tax and spending found in Labour’s manifesto are a reflection of the practical ambition to assure voters that the era of extravagant Corbynite spending promises has come to an end. However, they also signify an adherence to responsible fiscal policies, reminiscent of former Labour leaders like Denis Healey and Roy Jenkins.
If Labour wishes to be successful in its efforts to overhaul the healthcare system, reform planning regulations, or rejuvenate the UK’s industry, it will be essential to make decisions that may displease some of its recent supporters. Keir Starmer, the party’s leader since four years, has shown both relentless determination and the ability to bring about change in policy – characteristics that will likely be needed in abundance.
Labour is acutely aware that its significant majority stands on unstable ground, underlain by an unparalleled number of limited majority constituencies. Achieving a Blair-esque triad of terms in power appears to be a distant possibility. It could be beneficial, however, that ambitions are moderate. The current Labour government, contrasted to the one in 1997, is not riding a high tide of enthusiasm or hope. The newly-appointed prime minister does not present as an obvious hero – his name was notably absent from the chants at Glastonbury last weekend. Yet, after a decade and a half under Conservative leadership, many may experience a sensation of comfort and renewal to be governed by individuals who somewhat mirror themselves. This markedly differs from the mostly privately-educated and upper-middle-class former ministers preparing to depart. Rishi Sunak may have been the best of the three Tory prime ministers since the previous election, but he still represented a party that had been in power far too long.
The substantially diminished Conservatives, adapting to their new positions on the opposition benches, seem bound to engage in yet another bout of internal strife. Caught between the Reform party to their right and the Liberal Democrats to their left, they will be hard-pressed to agree on a way forward. However, for at least the next half decade, the endless turmoil of the British right looks set to be shrugged from the spotlight. That place is, once again, occupied by Labour.