The exciting win against the Springboks last Saturday has given Irish rugby a considerable boost as they approach the summer hiatus. However, the defeat during the initial Test, as well as the method South Africa used to acquire a lead in the second Test, indicates several challenges Ireland might face in the forthcoming season.
The team has experienced significant injuries to vital players, including Dan Sheehan, and the growing age of players in certain roles suggests the next season may welcome some fresh talent. How will Ireland address these openings in their lineup? In light of the two losses they’ve suffered this year, how will they adapt to maintain their status amongst the world’s top teams? Is there anything that requires modification?
Does Ireland need to re-examine their offensive strategy?
Last Saturday’s match highlighted once more that Ireland’s chances of success increase when they have ball possession for more extended periods. The longer the opposition is challenged by their sophisticated multiphase attack, the greater the chances of a breach.
In the first Test on the South African tour, Ireland recorded 112 carries. This figure saw a slight increase to 117 in the second Test, which Ireland won. Nonetheless, Ireland’s overall ball possession escalated from 48% to 53%, while South Africa’s carry total significantly decreased from 116 to 91. Ireland not only managed to dominate ball possession, but effectively utilised it, producing eight line breaks in the last game compared to just four the preceding week.
However, when England claimed victory over Ireland in the Six Nations, they restricted Ireland’s offence to just 93 carries and two line breaks. Both England and South Africa showcased aggressive, ball-hungry strategies. It’s becoming evident to teams that the most successful tactic to defeat Ireland is to simply monopolise the ball.
Still, to claim the second Test win, Ireland relied on a daring grubber from Ciarán Frawley and two drop-goals. Jack Crowley’s strategic kicking was also a notable feature. The decisive factor that determined the result were instances when Ireland took the gamble of kicking the ball away rather than retaining it, as opposed to those of long attacks generating multiple phases.
The trend of rugby copying successful strategies is prevalent. Should other teams try to keep ball possession away from Ireland, it may force the Irish to take more assertive action, like Frawley, to maximise their dwindling possession. Could this result in a shift in their attacking strategy, from a focus on volume to more swift strikes?
Andrew Goodman will shortly begin his role as Ireland’s new backs coach, having previously collaborated with outgoing coach Mike Catt on the tour. Watching him work with Andy Farrell as Ireland’s attack adapts is sure to be intriguing.
The question then arises, how does Ireland fill the void left by Dan Sheehan?
Rónan Kelleher is set to take over as the primary hooker with Sheehan sidelined due to a likely ACL injury. Ireland is blessed in terms of replacement options in this position. But if they are looking for a replacement who resembles Sheehan’s speed and power, who might that be?
Looking at Sheehan’s dominant carry percentage (46) and dominant tackle rate (12 per cent) from Opta revealed this year, we see he has been a force to reckon with among Irish hookers. Kelleher was not far behind either (39 and 11.6 respectively).
Although the raw data doesn’t show a significant drop thereafter, they represent domestic games, which can be distorted by weak teams not found at international level. Thus, other indicators, such as moments when Kelleher charged at Kwagga Smith, need to be considered.
So who is the next most dynamic hooker in Ireland according to the stats, given these conditions? It’s not Dave Heffernan, who substituted Sheehan in South Africa, nor Tom Stewart, who has also been capped. They attribute it to another Leinster player: Lee Barron.
Barron emerged as a top performer this season, accounting for 44 per cent of his team’s carries, second only to Sheehan, and making an impact in 11.5 per cent of his tackles, only slightly trailing Kelleher. His prowess at the attacking breakdown with an efficiency of 93 per cent tops the charts among Irish hookers, putting him above all others. His defensive record, at 17 per cent, puts him just behind Stewart from Ulster. That said, it’s worth noting that this performance analysis only covers 400 minutes of play for Barron this year, significantly less than the 857 minutes Stewart has put in. Additionally, Barron has not been tested against superior European opposition like Stewart.
Rob Herring seems to be the front-runner for the reserve hooker position, drawing from experiences. This said, given imminent provincial games due to injuries, Barron’s skills may propel him in areas where Ireland will miss Sheehan.
Turning our attention to the props, the issue of frontrow depth has come up again. Lingering memories of South Africa’s penalty try against Ireland’s substitute props in the first Test continue to torment. Irish front liners struggled with a scrum success rate of 56 per cent in Durban.
South Africa might be the best at scrummaging globally, but that doesn’t negate the reality that Cian Healy, Ireland’s second-choice loose-head prop, is already 36. This side of the scrum appears to have more depth problems compared to the tight head side where players like Tadhg Furlong (31), Finlay Bealham (32) and Oli Jager (29) still appear to have valuable years ahead in their rugby careers.
On the recent tour, Ireland’s third-choice loose head prop was Tom O’Toole, who recently transitioned from being a tight head. That speaks volumes about the evaluation of other options outside the team. Explicitly, David Humphreys has prohibited provinces from recruiting non-Irish eligible props, underpinning the urgent requirement for development.
Who is the closest to joining the team? Well, this hinges on what Ireland needs. Given our scrummaging challenges against certain teams, a strong scrummager seems preferable. Though O’Toole was not renowned for his scrummaging as a tight-head prop, adjusting to loose head conditions could be relatively easier. Unfortunately, the availability of scrummaging potential data is sparse.
Underneath the canopy of the park’s dynamism, one can pinpoint the onset of Andrew Porter’s breakthrough. This season, we’ve seen a host of loose-heads exhibit their prowess provincially. Jack Boyle from Leinster clearly stands out as the most formidable carrier, boasting a commanding 48 per cent dominance rate. However, Michael Milne trails fairly close behind, holding a respectable 39 per cent dominance rate. At just 21, Boyle’s potential is high, but Milne has proven his ability as well by touring with Emerging Ireland in 2022.
When it comes to defensive titans, none surpass O’Toole, the fresh loose head who achieved the stellar tackle success rate of 98 per cent in this year’s URC, with anyone attempting more than 100 tackles. These feats have landed him the title of the most reliable defender in the league thrice over. Counting on him to miss is futile.
However, the question remains, will these loose heads be capable of sustaining an international scrum? Only time could divulge this answer.
The six jersey’s future ownership is yet another matter of discussion. Could the relegation of Peter O’Mahony to the substitutes for the Durban Test be indicative of a shift in leadership? Will he be forced to let go of his six jersey by the upcoming talents?
Forecasts depend on Farrell’s plan for the position. If a more physically imposing presence is sought, our data-driven conclusion is affirmative. The question then arises: who will replace him?
Considering key metrics such as tackles, carry and ruck stats on both offensive and defensive ends, Ryan Baird emerges as the most potent and versatile six. Counting Baird, Izuchukwu, Ahern, Beirne and O’Mahony, Baird is only second to the dominant carry rate (41 per cent), tackles the most dominantly (11 per cent), and proves to be efficient in attacking rucks (91 per cent). He also leads in thwarting defensive rucks (19 per cent).
Baird’s performance stands unmatched in this year’s provincial efforts. Izuchukwu from Ulster, who’s shown a formidable 47 per cent dominance rate since Richie Murphy started deploying him at six, comes close. Having moved to the back row, he also holds the record for the most metres made (86) per 80 minutes by any URC forward. However, his tackling prowess (6 per cent) and ruck efficiency need some sharpening when compared to Baird.
Before his injury earlier this year, Ahern showcased his skills as a good ball carrier and excelled at defensive breakdowns. However, compared to Baird, his tackling dominance falls short. Beirne, the incumbent holder of the number six jersey following the last weekend’s performance, might not have displayed great physical strength in carrying or tackling, but his efficiency at defensive breakdowns, on both offence and defence, is superior among this group. His selection as the ‘6’ also facilitated the inclusion of James Ryan with his four superior tackles in the second row.
Nevertheless, there are non-measurable aspects, such as lineout capabilities, that need to be taken into account. Leadership prowess is another such crucial element. Farrell’s acknowledgement and appreciation for all aspects of the game ensures that both O’Mahony and Beirne will always be considered for selection, especially if they are not playing lock.
The competition for selection will be contested between the more physically robust athletes like Baird, Ahern and Izuchukwu. Whether there will be a lasting change in team structure in the upcoming season remains speculative.