On a crisp Friday morning, Ireland’s Prime Minister, Simon Harris, convened his first meeting with his freshly assembled advisory team to draw up his agenda for the forthcoming months. Following aptly, he proceeded to meet Drew Harris, the Commissioner of Garda, prior to holding a press brief with Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez. Come Monday, he’ll preside over his initial Cabinet committee session on housing matters. Subsequently, he’s scheduled to liaise with the Road Safety Authority representatives and later deliberate on immigration issues with the Minister for Integration, Roderic O’Gorman. As Harris’ commitments pile up, he’s informed Fine Gael of his intentions to tour each electoral district in the country prior to the local polls.
Despite informing his Coalition partners about his goal for the Government to complete the full tenure, conjectures of a potential election in October or November aren’t subsiding. With a dauntingly brief window to impact as Prime Minister, Harris has his objectives outlined. The forthcoming six months pose significance.
April
Over the forthcoming fortnight, as the Prime Minister acclimates with his global and European contemporaries, brisk efforts would be initiated to form a new safety task force in Dublin and to organize the first sessions of two novel Cabinet committees. The Opposition has already accorded a warm welcome to the inception of the first Cabinet committee, dedicated to children, education, and disability. Presumably, one of the premier matters this committee would address could be finalising the ratification date for the optional protocol for the UN Convention on the Rights of People with Disabilities, as a move to empower the differently abled to assert their rights. Via the other committee dedicated to migration, integration, and Ukraine issues, Harris envisages finding innovative methods to reinforce entry regulations into the State, including appending new nations to the ‘safe origin countries’ directory.
May
In May, Team Harris is anticipated to announce a significant package that aims to support both businesses and farmers. The package would cater to employers, particularly those affected by the rise in the minimum national wage, by diminishing their PRSI obligations through suitable measures. Furthermore, the projected modifications to the statutory sick leave policy, involving an extension by two days, may face delays to allow businesses more flexibility. Alongside this, either funds or “training vouchers” could be offered to businesses for further education and training of employees.
In addition to business support, the package is speculated to feature aid for farmers. This might encompass provisions for managing fodder and tillage and a fiscal aspect is deemed inevitable.
On May 27th, Harris is scheduled to participate in his first National Economic Dialogue as Taoiseach where he will take into consideration various stakeholder requirements for the 2025 budget before the Summer Economic Statement. It remains to be seen if Harris will approach this conservatively or ambitiously, and whether this will create or mitigate expectations.
Moving into June, the primary focus will be the local and European elections which will take place on Friday June 7th following a one-week recess. This will be Harris’ first significant electoral test in the coming weeks. Reports indicate that Fine Gael is essentially set with local election candidate selections, planning to run at least 350 candidates nationwide. Ahead of the elections, Harris aims to visit all constituencies and maximise his communication skills. The party, estimated to currently hold 250 seats following a decrease since the 2019 local elections when 255 seats were won, has had some local resignations. The party’s capability to maintain its five MEP seats is likely to be challenging. A victory for Fianna Fáil TD Barry Cowen could trigger an unwanted by-election which might have wider implications on Harris’ broader contemplation on the timing of a general election.
In the coming weeks, possibly towards the end of June or beginning of July, a significant matter will emerge concerning Ireland’s candidate for the EU commissioner position. It is expected that EU member nations will be keen to submit their nominations early. Harris is committed to honouring an agreement to permit a Fianna Fáil candidate to proceed. Rumours are rife that if the nominee is Michael McGrath, the Finance Minister, it could lead to future Cabinet reshuffles, although these aren’t expected for sometime.
The current Irish Taoiseach is placing pressure on his ministerial team to advance several important legislative pieces before summer break. As it stands, the Dáil is set to adjourn on the 11th of July. One particularly pressing issue is the proposal for a law to safeguard tenancy duration in response to some housing sites imposing consistent 51-week tenancy agreements for the upcoming academic year. This has given rise to increased yearly rental costs for tenants. Meanwhile, Children’s Minister, Roderic O’Gorman has been tasked with expediting the implementation of laws to ensure childcare subsidies are accessible for those employing childminders. The Minister of State in charge of mental health, Mary Butler, is being pushed to advance long-delayed new mental health legislation. Likewise, Justice Minister Helen McEntee has been asked to hasten legislative efforts aimed at empowering judges with the ability to impose lengthy sentences for heinous crimes, such as murders or rapes, ensuring such cases won’t be eligible for parole hearings until 40 years post-sentencing.
With the Dáil in recess in August, Simon Harris will have the chance to focus on party affairs including preparations for the general elections. There is mounting speculation within Fine Gael of potential restructuring within the national executive. With a potentially contentious budget on the horizon, all political parties will be directing their efforts towards ensuring candidate selection for the general elections is progressing smoothly, particularly as the forthcoming budget season in September is expected to consume a significant chunk of their time.
The 2025 Budget Debacle might primarily revolve around corporate affairs. This would find Fine Gael facing a continuous barrage of demands to decrease the hospitality sector’s VAT rate. The pressure is on Michael McGrath to come up with a business-oriented budget package for spring, something he’s been resisting so far. His test will be to oppose the introduction of a reduced 9% tax rate for food services. Harris is expected to face immense pressure from his party, having previously pledged to prioritise corporate interests. Moreover, the Taoiseach has voiced his preferences for a renters’ tax credit elevating to more than €1,000 (a rise from €700). He is also advocating for employees to avoid higher taxes on the initial €50,000 of their wages. There’s also a growing demand for reductions in the universal social charge (USC). Each of these considerations would demand significant financial resources which could restrict broader fiscal flexibility.
Meanwhile, Fine Gael has been conjuring up a quintuple-year tax strategy, portions of which might be executed in the budget. The majority, nevertheless, will be incorporated as a fundamental element in Fine Gael’s succeeding general election manifesto. This strategy will be orchestrated by Paschal Donohoe, Minister for Public Expenditure, Neale Richmond, State Minister in the Department of Finance, and seasoned Fine Gael figures such as Richard Bruton.
One insider mentioned, “We really aspire to bring something fresh on board”. It’s anticipated that Fine Gael might introduce a scheme to dramatically reduce USC, considering its current levels have been described by one source as a “hard blow” for voters. Other aspects of their document are believed to include tax assistance for corporations and business visionaries, taking a close look at the destiny of inheritance tax, capital gains tax, carbon tax and the inception of hefty future funds.