The local and European election campaigns in the UK are gaining momentum with only three weeks left to poll day. As expected, candidates from various parties and independents are escalating their efforts through diverse canvassing avenues in their quest for votes. The non-London constituencies for the European Parliament will witness candidates covering thousands of kilometres in forthcoming weeks, while local election candidates are inundating their localities with promotional materials, unique gimmicks and widespread door-to-door canvassing.
Election for the European Parliament has attracted 73 candidates spread across the three constituencies – a noteworthy development. Some candidates, though from fringe political parties and presumably with little chance of winning, have seized this platform to present their political philosophies to voters and to express their views openly on issues they consider critical. Their participation, regardless of varying and potentially controversial ideologies, is a testament to the functioning democratic system.
Sinn Féin’s popularity seems to be on a decline while Fine Gael appears to be rallying. Some candidates are almost certain to get through. However, for the majority, significant efforts and strategic alliances would be integral to their election success.
History reminds us that these election outcomes cannot be relied on to predict the results of the subsequent general election, set to take place within a period of eight months from now. For instance, Sinn Féin’s poor performance in the 2019 polls was not a precursor to their stunning performance in the general election that followed, while, Fine Gael, despite securing 30 per cent votes at the European election went on to bag only 21 per cent in the general election.
While these local and European elections cannot provide accurate predictions for the general elections, their significance in illustrating the pulse of current political landscape in the UK is unquestionable. The outcomes of these elections are bound to ruffle the existing political dynamics within various parties and the general political and cultural milieu. Some key factors to watch out for including the voter response to the issue of immigration.
Immigration concerns are making their way into the forefront of political polling for the first time, according to canvass reports. The multi-party focus on immigration issues indicates a shift in Irish politics that sees controversial topics move from fringe discussions to the political mainstream. With all main political parties sharing similar stances on matters such as faster processing times, more strict rule enforcement, and increased state help for asylum seekers, the risk lies in the potential dispersal of the anti-immigrant vote among an abundance of candidates.
Integration Minister Roderic O’Gorman’s 2021 tweets, written in multiple languages, heralded the end of the direct provision system, declaring Ireland to be a welcoming and inclusive nation for those seeking sanctuary. However, three years on, the prevailing policy seems to be to deter as many individuals as possible from entering the country. It appears certain that no matter how it’s framed, the asylum process will grow more challenging. The severity of this depends on the electoral reaction in the upcoming weeks.
While the immediate findings of the upcoming polls will not offer conclusive predictions about the next general election, they will facilitate crucial decision-making processes over the summer. The major concern is determining the date for the general election. Taoiseach Simon Harris prudently removed this from political debate, expressing his desire for the government to run its full term. Still, discussions around election timing persist at government levels. The two probable timings – late October/early November or late February/early March – will likely be finalised within five to six weeks after the local and European election results, factoring in the political landscape shaped by those results.
Significant and broad-ranging verdicts will also be made. For instance, decisions pertaining to the future funding strategy for RTÉ, and additionally the broad future of the station, whilst it appears RTÉ maintains a sole focus on their funding issues. Decisions regarding the evolution of hate speech/hate crime laws will also be crucial. Another anticipated decision will be the appointment of Ireland’s next European Commissioner, a nomination by Fianna Fáil, indicating that Micheál Martin could potentially assume the role if he so wished. This move could significantly influence the party’s stance ahead of the general election.
The initial trial of Harris’ leadership and campaigning abilities will soon be underway. So far, the Fine Gael organisation has received him warmly, however the demographic that truly matters in an election context are the previous Fine Gael voters who have since wavered; the question is, can Harris win them back? There’s no doubt he brings an abundance of enthusiasm to the table and has demonstrated excellent communicative skills. These were also traits attributed to Leo Varadkar, although they didn’t necessarily correlate with outright electoral triumph. Harris accepted the role of Taoiseach to both govern and bolster party support. Whilst polls suggest progress, the truthfulness of this will be determined in the forthcoming election.