The day after Derry’s initial league victory over Kerry, a local lad jubilantly revealed he’d staked €50 on Derry for the All-Ireland championship. Given that Derry had barely scraped past a Kerry team lacking key players like David Clifford, we were dubious about his odds.
Victory by a single point in January set no impressive precedent.
These long term bets can be as volatile as the stock market. The punter would have felt optimistic after Derry’s league final victory against Dublin, but for most of the time since then, he’d have struggled to cash out for the price of an ice cream.
So how is the bet looking now? For the first time since March, Derry have consecutive wins and first time since last summer, they have back-to-back wins in championship matches. Last summer also witnessed them march into Croke Park, buoyant with a duo of victories.
Despite recovering from a slew of complex fractures, Derry are still hobbling along, though now sans crutches. Does this mean they’re heading to Croke Park on a winning wave? Even a small ripple of one?
In this compact season, and under the current championship system, maintaining momentum is undeniably harder than ever. All remaining matches in this year’s football and hurling championships will take place in Croke Park; dates in stone since last Christmas.
The goal of reaching midsummer Croke Park was highlighted in preseason meetings countrywide. But getting there is only half the battle; the ultimate question revolves around their form. Momentum, while abstract and slippery, is recognizable in its potency. It’s not something conjured up by hopeful thoughts.
So who’s got this driving force and who’s looking for it?
The Kerry footballers are a fascinating group, being the only team undefeated in all their championship games this year. They haven’t suffered a loss since Dublin’s February 24th night league game, a full four months ago.
Yet their arrival to Croke Park seems devoid of any noticeable momentum. In the recent Sunday Game, Éamonn Fitzmaurice commented that Kerry needed a “test”, expressing that if they couldn’t rise to this weekend’s challenge, they’d be “better out of it”.
Essentially, the season for Kerry’s football team finally kicks off now, a lengthy 10 weeks since the championship first commenced. Historically, due to the existing tournament structure, both Kerry and Dublin have been the sole teams able to prepare for Croke Park quarterfinals quite significantly early, without any impeding threat of premature knockout.
This foresight accorded them the privilege to construct planned training regimens, periodisation, along with peak performance timing during trophy season, unlike other teams who have to maintain peak performance at regular intervals merely to tread water.
However, such a pampered lifestyle has its setbacks, as Kerry find themselves heading into Croke Park yet to face a severe test of their abilities since the previous July. Games against Cork in Killarney and Clare in the Munster final divulged more about Kerry’s listlessness and inadequacy, respectively, versus their competitor’s performances.
During the group stages, Kerry secured the most lenient draw than all other teams, thereby amassing 39 point victory over all three matches. As such, this winning doesn’t correlate with momentum of which they have none.
Dublin, though victorious since the League final back in March, only faced a credible challenge when Mayo managed to pull off draw recently. Nonetheless, Dublin hasn’t suffered a quarterfinal loss in a span of 16 years. Often having advanced unscathed to the quarterfinals, a trend that was of little concern. Indeed, their thrilling last-minute draw against Mayo tops anything Kerry has encountered this season, which ought to hold some significance.
Momentum’s association with winning has been found to be skewed at times by performance levels. A case in point is the hurling team Cork’s four successive wins outnumbers any still competing team in the championship (Limerick – three; Kilkenny – three; Clare – one).
Yet, the thrust they engendered over the middle of May, celebrating victories against Limerick and Tipperary, has been notably lacking in recent displays. Momentum cannot be reserved and reclaimed at will; it holds a real-time value.
Is Galway up to the challenge? They, alongside Dublin and Kerry, are the only undefeated teams in the football championship. However, just two weeks ago they lost a significant lead to Armagh in the final group match, subsequently relinquishing the top position. Their performance against Monaghan on Saturday was lacklustre.
Throughout the season, injuries to their key players have been a constant obstacle and with Shane Walsh having to leave the field last weekend, things don’t look promising. Dublin is their opponent in the quarterfinal. Whatever effort they put forth at Croke Park this coming weekend may not be enough to create a winning momentum.
What about Roscommon? Armagh? Donegal? Louth? Yes to all.
And what about Derry and Kerry? On a chilly night in Tralee back in January, the question wasn’t so much what condition these teams would be in come the end of June. It was taken as read they’d both be contenders, racing towards Croke Park. It’s quite astonishing how one can be simultaneously correct and incorrect.
So, what are they now battling for? Momentum. That’s the key.