The re-election of Seán Kelly from Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil’s Billy Kelleher as MEPs for the vast five-seat South Ireland constituency seemed highly likely last night. Independents4Change’s Mick Wallace and Grace O’Sullivan of the Green Party were expected to compete for the last seat. Independent Michael McNamara, TD from Clare, and Kathleen Funchion from Sinn Féin, in Carlow-Kilkenny, had forecasts favouring their win trending their way as well.
The Ireland South count centre located at Nemo Rangers GAA club in Cork had accounted for 80 per cent of the votes when these predictions came to light. The race for the final seat could involve Fine Gael’s John Mullins, ex-chief executive of Bord Gáis, or on the flip side Fianna Fáil’s Cynthia Ní Mhurchú, a former RTÉ presenter, depending on who gets eliminated first and the transfer of votes to their respective party’s second candidate.
Predictably, Kelleher seemed to be doing well as per ballot observers, however, seasoned election observers envisage him missing the required quota in the first count, necessitating transfers from surplus Kelly votes or an eliminated candidate. The head of Fianna Fáil, Micheál Martin, stated his contentment with the party’s Europe-wide performance, expressing hope for Ní Mhurchú being in contest for the final seat and belief that Kelleher would retain his own.
The significant crossover of first and second preference votes between Kelly and Kelleher indicated the importance of candidate popularity. Sinn Féin’s Funchion might gain from vote transfers from her running mate, Limerick’s Paul Gavan. Meanwhile, Wexford’s independent Mick Wallace continues to vie for the last seat with Grace O’Sullivan from the Green Party, growing confident of defending her position as the vote counting carried on into the night. Transfers, according to O’Sullivan, will be vital in her maintaining her European seat.
Niamh Hourihan of Labour, Susan Doyle from the Social Democrats, and People Before Profit-Solidarity’s Cian Prendiville are anticipated to have a significant influence in determining the victory for the final seat, with left-leaning candidates Wallace and O’Sullivan likely to gain advantage.
There is increased surveillance on another contestant, Derek Blighe, leader of Ireland First and campaigner against immigration, who appears to have acquired votes between the 4 to 5 per cent range.
Few of Blighe’s votes are reported to be transferrable from other contenders, but of the voters supporting him, many have indicated Kelleher as their second option, which suggests the influence of their shared Cork origins.
The counting responsibility of the 713,000 ballot papers, weighing a staggering 5.8 metric tonnes, lies with Martin Harvey, the returning officer for Ireland South. The counting is expected to recommence at 9am on the coming Monday.