The tally for the European Election continues, with Dublin enlisting its quartet of MEPs. The Midlands-North-West count saw existing MEP Chris MacManus (SF) lose his seat in the 17th round of counting. He aided Michelle Gildernew to surpass Independent Ireland’s Ciarán Mullooly, ranking her fifth via his transfers. Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan is predicted to succeed in the upcoming count, with Peadar Tóibín of Aontú now ruled out.
In the third position is ex-jockey Nina Carberry (Fine Gael), minutely surpassing her partner Maria Walsh, whilst Barry Cowen (Fianna Fáil) sits in fourth. You can find further detailed results here.
In Southern Ireland, both Seán Kelly (FG) and Billy Kelleher (FG) have won their elections. The remaining trio of seats in Southern Ireland is a contest between Kathleen Funchion (SF), Michael McNamara (Ind), Mick Wallace (Ind), and Cynthia Ní Mhurchú (FF). Grace O’Sullivan (Green) has been dismissed from the race and the results can be found here.
The tally for local elections is complete, with all council seats filled, headed by Fianna Fáil as the majority party with 248 seats. The seat distribution for the rest is as follows: Fine Gael 245; Labour 46, Social Democrats 35; Greens 23; People Before Profit Solidarity 13, Aontú 8; Independents 186; Others 33.
There has been a lull in Midlands-North-West, with the forthcoming stage anticipated to be Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan’s election and the allocation of his surplus votes – requiring less than 3,000 of Peadar Tóibín’s 56,000 votes to secure victory.
Reporting from Southern Ireland, Barry Roche noted that Cynthia Ní Mhurchú is gathering more votes following an early inspection of Grace O Sullivan’s papers as opposed to Mick Wallace, who has an almost 2,000-vote deficit – this does not bode well for Wallace.
Preparations for the final count in Cork are underway, with Fianna Fáil expected to double their current seats. For more on this, Barry Roche has the latest update.
Cynthia Ní Mhurchú looks to be the prime contender for the final spot in Ireland South for the Fianna Fáil party, surpassing Independent4Change MEP Mick Wallace due to excess votes transferred from her party peer, Billy Kelleher. Managing to secure over 60% of Kelleher’s left-over votes, Ní Mhurchú obtained an impressive 3,377 out of Kelleher’s 5,344 transferable votes which saw her jump ahead of Wallace, increasing her total to 75,900, while Wallace received only 223 votes, reaching a total of 73,947.
With the count concluding on the dismissal of current Green Party MEP Grace O’Sullivan of Waterford, attention has now turned to where her remaining 69,197 votes will be allocated but it is clear that Ní Mhurchú of Carlow is ahead of Wallace.
In the meantime, Independent Michael McNamara is steadily gaining on 87,542 votes and Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion is safely progressing with 82,500 votes, appearing ready to join the already elected MEPs – Kelleher and Sean Kelly of Fine Gael.
After being eliminated, Grace O’Sullivan released a farewell statement in which she expressed her gratitude for having been given the opportunity to serve as a Member of the European Parliament, acknowledging her contributions in Brussels to the 8th Environment Action Programme and the Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation. She thanked the citizens of Ireland South for their trust by voting for her in both 2019 and 2024.
As a participant of the Mercosur Delegation, I advocated strongly for the protection of Irish farmers and the environment against a potentially harmful trade deal that prioritises profit over human and environmental wellbeing. I was vehemently against the EU’s endorsement of Israel’s overstated response to the distressing events of October 7th, which led to death, destruction, and torment being inflicted on the people of Palestine.
In my tenure at the 9th European Parliament, I worked tirelessly building coalitions to effect change. I have the record of authoring more legislative reports, forming binding EU law, than any other Irish MEP of that term. My mandate was used to its fullest and I can look back with no regrets.
I would like to express my gratitude to my team, my backers, and the members of the Green Party from all over South Ireland who invested their time and energy into my re-election campaign. It was an exceptional endeavor and I am incredibly thankful for their unrelenting support. Due to their diligent efforts, despite the trying circumstances, I nearly kept my seat, enduring till the 19th count and gaining nearly 70,000 votes.
Losing my seat is a personal disappointment, but it’s just a new chapter in a much long saga. For over four decades, I’ve been an advocate for my beliefs and fought for what’s just. Across all these years, through highs and lows, my commitment to climate action, human rights, and environmental preservation has been unswerving. That determination is as solid now as it was when I started off on the Rainbow Warrior at 23.
The European Union will face a testing five years ahead, and I wish my successors the utmost success in their tenure. I give them my sincerest hopes that they work productively to uphold the Green Deal, human rights and the rule of law, and to prioritise a Europe that addresses social, environmental, and economic issues afflicting Europeans across the continent.
Following the conclusion of the 19th count, distributing Billy Kelleher’s surplus votes, no one else achieved the quota, thus resulting in the elimination of the incumbent Green MEP, Grace O’Sullivan. Further updates to follow.
At this juncture, it merits reiteration that it’s not mandatory for contestants to acquire the quota for election. The quota merely exhibits that a candidate is insurmountable – however, the closing slots can still be secured by simply outvoting the following competitor.
As we get closer to the concluding counts, non-exchangeable ballots and those at the end of their transfer route imply a diminished total in circulation. The last seats in South Ireland and Midlands-North-West may presumably be claimed by individuals lacking quotas, mirroring the outcome in Dublin.
The final count is closing in for South Ireland. Billy Kelleher from Fianna Fáil is set to return to Brussels as he crossed the finish line, thanks to the 12,271 votes transferred from Fine Gael’s John Mullins, exceeding the quota by over 5,000 votes.
Tánaiste Micheál Martin arrived at the South Ireland’s Nemo Count Centre moments before Returning Office Martin Harvey announced the result of Mullins’ 43,601 transferred votes. Kelleher was enthusiastically celebrated by his supporters upon the announcement.
The next focal point is the allocation of Kelleher’s 5,344 extra votes. Fianna Fáil hopes that these votes will be transferred to Cynthia Ní Mhurchú, Kelleher’s electoral partner, in substantial numbers to narrow the 1,191 votes gap with Mick Wallace, the exiting Independent4Change MEP.
Following this, the 68,000+ votes won by outgoing Green Party MEP, Grace O’Sullivan will be distributed in the 20th and last count. This will determine who the fifth and final seat goes to, between Wallace and Ní Mhurchú.
This final tally is also expected to assign the other two seats to Michael McNamara, an Independent, and Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion. They currently hold 86,757 and 82,315 votes respectively, making them poised to secure their seats on the flight to Belgium.
Billy Kelleher from Fianna Fáil has been elected for the second seat in South Ireland. His additional votes will be distributed accordingly, following which, Grace O’Sullivan, outgoing MEP from Greens, may possibly be eliminated. More updates are to follow. It’s indeed a beacon of democracy.
Barry Roche, the reporter who had the chance to ponder amidst the Southern Ireland counts throughout the week, previously revealed that the thrown together ballots in the same district would tip the scales at 5.8 tonnes and extend over a distance of 4,600km if arranged lengthways.
“Now, consider this,” he proposes. “Given that a ream of 500 photocopy papers measures 5.2cm, the total of 713,000 ballots, if piled one over the other, would reach an altitude of 7.4km — seven times surmounting Carrauntwohill and towering over the Eiffel Tower 22 times.”
An update on the subsequent Cork count will arrive before we know it.
Gildernew surpasses Mullooly in Midlands-North-West
Sinn Féin’s Michelle Gildernew amassed over 20,000 transfers from Chris MacManus during the 18th count in Midlands-North-West, propelling her past Ciaran Mullooly (Ireland Independent) in the contest for the final seat of the district, as reported by Fiachra Gallagher.
Ms Gildernew now holds 74,795 votes, in contrast to Mr Mullooly’s 73,101.
Peadar Tóibín of Aontú faced elimination after the count.
The next count is likely to see Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan satisfying the quota.
Billy Kelleher on the verge
Reporting from Southern Ireland, Barry Roche discloses that the initial assessments from the allocation of John Mullins papers in Southern Ireland’s 18th count suggest that Billy Kelleher might amass around 12,000, sufficient to push him past the 114,761 quota with a comfortable margin of about 4,000.
If such were the case, the 19th count would see the allocation of Mr Kelleher’s leftovers, which the Fianna Fáil party hopes will massively transfer to Cynthia Ní Mhurchú aiding her in reducing the lead of Mick Wallace prior to the elimination of Grace O’Sullivan. The leftover votes of O’Sullivan could subsequently influence the outcome of the last seat.
Can Grace O’Sullivan withstand the South Ireland count?
Derek Blighe from Ireland First accurately forecasted that Independent Michael McNamara would gain the most from his elimination. As a result, Mcnamara, who is based in Clare, obtained an additional 8,132 votes, placing him ahead of five other contenders in the race for three vacant seats, notes Barry Roche from Cork, Ireland South count.
McNamara’s total votes now stand at 83,702, extending a lead of over 2,000 against Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion. Both candidates have secured a 10,000 vote lead above Independent4Change Mick Wallace, whose vote tally stands at 71,910. Trailing Wallace by 5,000 votes is Cynthia Ní Mhurchú, followed by Grace O’Sullivan who is 3,000 votes behind.
John Mullins, the second candidate from Fine Gael, has withdrawn from the contest. His 43,601 votes are currently being distributed. Many are predicting that the vacant seats will be filled by McNamara, Funchion, and Wallace.
However, this prediction may go awry under two circumstances. The first scenario entails a mass vote transfer from Mullins to Kelleher, given both candidates are based in Cork and represent parties in the same Coalition. Kelleher needs just under 7,000 votes to meet the quota. In the event that Kelleher receives double the necessary votes from Mullins, this could leave him with an excess 7,000 votes that he may pass onto Ní Mhurchú, allowing her to close the approximate 6,000-vote deficit against Wallace.
The second scenario that could disrupt the prediction is if, upon Grace O’Sullivan from Waterford’s expected exit from the race, her votes are transferred to Ní Mhurchú, being both are female candidates from the southeast, rather than to Wallace from Wexford.
Barry Roche, from the Ireland South count, mentions the disappointment expressed by outgoing Ireland South MEP Grace O’Sullivan of the Green Party. O’Sullivan anticipated some loyalty from their Government Coalition partners as she faces elimination from the race for the final three seats in the five-seater constituency.
Before she received a significant 7,675 transfers from Susan Doyle of the Social Democrats, raising a slight question over her potential elimination from the race, O’Sullivan expressed her thoughts on why she seemed to have fewer transfers now compared to her 2019 triumph.
She noted a curious trend where Mick Wallace outperformed her in securing Sean Kelly’s transfers. This came as a shock to her as policy-wise, Sean Kelly and Mick Wallace stand at two different ends of the spectrum.
O’Sullivan found it puzzling that voters preferred a candidate with contrasting views rather than someone associated with a coalition partnership. She had initially anticipated a certain measure of loyalty from her coalition partners, but that didn’t seem to materialize.
Kelly, who won on the first round with a substantial 122,776 votes, had his excess votes of over 8,000 mainly going to his fellow candidate John Mullins, who secured 2-633, and Fianna Fáil’s Billy Kelleher gaining 1,963. In contrast, O’Sullivan only received a modest 361, trailing Wallace with 390.
On a related note, Fiachra Gallagher reported from the Midlands-North-West count that Chris MacManus from Sinn Féin had failed to secure his position. He was disqualified from the race after the 17th count. Despite his disappointment, he expressed hope that his transfers would bolster his party mate, Michelle Gildernew’s chances of taking the final fifth seat of the constituency.
While Michelle’s numbers didn’t seem to give her an edge initially, MacManus refrained from ruling her out, with still three rounds of counting remaining.
He emphasised that Sinn Féin should learn from their performance in the local and European elections, highlighting the importance of understanding constituents’ expectations and recognising the voting trends. He noted the voters who wanted a change had chosen either not to vote or voted for independents and smaller parties. The dynamics of local and European election campaigns, as MacManus pointed out, vary significantly from general elections.
People are likely to adjust their voting behaviour in a general election when they realise they’re voting for a Government. In such an election, it’s possible they will reconsider the implications of their votes compared to how they voted in previous elections, when they might not have turned up. Sinn Féin intends to fully prepare for this general election, stated their representative. He did not dismiss the possibility of representing the party in this election, implying that his name, MacManus, may appear again on the voting list.
Chris MacManus, a representative of the Sinn Féin party, was unfortunately excluded from MNW on the 17th count. His amassed 36,157 votes will now be allocated to the others, as reported by Fiachra Gallagher from Castlebar.
The role of candidate recognisability in the elections has been highlighted by Fianna Fáil Senator Lisa Chambers. According to her, recognisability played a significant part in candidate success due to the enormous constituency range from Donegal to Galway, extending across the Midlands border. The familiarity of individuals such as broadcaster Ciarán Mullooly provides a considerable advantage, particularly in a candidate list of 27 names.
Chambers anticipates her potential elimination depending on how swiftly the vote count proceeds. There’s still a chance that Sinn Féin contender Michelle Gildernew might outrank Ciarán Mullooly for the fifth seat, subject to the redistribution of votes from Niall Blaney.
Reflecting on the election strategy, Chambers speculated that had the approach been different with fewer candidates, the outcome might have been more favourable for Fianna Fáil in Midlands-North-West. The timing of a candidate’s elimination is crucial as it influences the potential to gain further transfers.
Rewording the original text into British English, it reads:
“I feel extremely accomplished for the political crusade I led. There were nearly 45,000 votes cast in my favour, which is quite a meaningful number. Despite the disappointment of not achieving my aim, considering the intense effort expended on these crusades, I am still proud. Particularly gratifying, was the robust support received from my home county, Mayo. Regardless of the outcome, I chose to see the bright side.”
Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan, an independent candidate, looks poised to achieve his quota due to a substantial bump in support thanks to Saoirse McHugh’s vote transfers. Currently, Flanagan boasts an impressive 103,653 votes, falling short of the required number by less than 10,000.
Although the competition for the final seat of the constituency is still undecided this Thursday morning, Ciaran Mullooly representing Independent Ireland, is the favoured contestant. Following 16 counts, Mullooly is standing on 71,107 votes, ahead of competitors Peadar Tóibín from Aontú, having 54,531 votes, and Michelle Gildernew from Sinn Féin, with 53,129 votes.
The count centre was relatively calm this Thursday morning with only Flanagan physically present, although it’s anticipated that additional candidates will appear as the day progresses and the counting draws to a close.
Derek Blighe of the Ireland First party, an anti-immigration candidate who received 25,000 votes before getting eliminated, predicts that the majority of his votes transferred after his disqualification will fall to Michael McNamara, an independent candidate. Being a previous Labour TD for Clare and an open critic of the government’s immigration approach, McNamara is a strong contender for one of the final three seats. Blighe speculates – and hopes – that his 38,635 distributed votes will aid McNamara in securing the seat later in the day.
The view has been expressed that voters may favour candidate McNamara in the ongoing count at the Nemo Rangers GAA club in Cork. However, an equal share of the votes may also go to Kelleher, which is beyond anyone’s control. The race for the last three seats is tightly contested between McNamara, Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funcheon, Independent4Change Mick Wallace and Fianna Fáil’s Cynthia Ni Mhurchu. Votes from Blighe’s papers are also being distributed.
Meanwhile, Sinéad Gibney, Social Democrats candidate reported a personal loss of €20,000, following her failed bid for a seat in the European Parliament. Falling short by 440 votes for a refund of campaign expenses, Gibney resorted to selling her car to supplement her election funding.
In light of both the Labour party and the Social Democrats gaining victories in the local elections over the weekend, discussions have reignited about the potential for a merger. The Social Democrats saw major growth in their local authority representation, increasing from 19 to 35 seats and becoming the second largest party in Dublin City Council. Meanwhile, The Labour Party held onto 56 seats, one less than in 2019, and notably, also secured an MEP seat in Dublin.
In other news, the Green Party voiced its disappointment over the perceived failure to secure sitting MEP’s Grace O’Sullivan’s seat in Ireland South. In a statement released on Wednesday, the Green deputy leader Catherine Martin directed criticism towards Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, emphasising the importance of the climate crisis, and the necessity to take it seriously in election matters. Responding to scrutiny from coalition parties during the campaign, Martin, the Green deputy leader, commented: “No party can manage what the other political parties might do”.