Determining the precise point when Kamala Harris’s political surge began to wane is challenging. However, it appears to have happened somewhere between her aggressive confrontation of Donald Trump in the previous month’s debate, and the time when Hurricane Helene struck the eastern seaboard. The havoc wreaked by this tempest, considered one of the most damaging in years, has been closely trailed by the equally threatening Hurricane Milton. As cities flooded, residents evacuated and casualties mounted, a whirlwind of false claims regarding the alleged carelessness of the US federal government has swept through. Unsurprisingly, Harris is being blamed for the entire situation, even the climatic conditions.
Attempting to predict how the storm’s aftermath will affect the forthcoming election would be ill-judged. The 2005 Hurricane Katrina debacle under the watch of George W Bush did not hamper his re-election, but possibly laid the groundwork for the Democratic landslide in the following year’s midterms. Against all odds, the havoc wrecked by Helene might prove advantageous for Harris’s voter turnout, given the massive impact in the primarily Republican zones of rural Georgia and North Carolina. Florida, the imminent target of the hurricane season, is no longer a battleground state.
The fact remains that virtually everything apart from the metaphorical ripple effect of a butterfly’s wings flapping across the ocean, can tilt the scales of what is purportedly a neck-and-neck election. There’s a balanced probability of either Trump losing to Harris or the other way around. So-called “specialists” asserting certain forecasts are merely putting on a front. There’s no pollster with the capability to gauge the mindset of numerous undecided voters in swing states.
Unsurprisingly, Trump is eager to escalate the situation to an extreme level, making the upcoming election ever more volatile. This is precisely what’s happening. Over recent days, he’s accused Harris of misusing funds from the Federal Emergency Management Authority to accommodate illegal immigrants. He’s also asserted that Democrats are repurposing aid resources away from Republican-supporting regions; that Joe Biden has overlooked making contact with Republican governors in affected states, and government disaster relief is absent.
In this tumultuous US election, which is akin to a hurricane’s aftermath, Kamala Harris’s political sway seems to be on a decline.
It’s evident that each of these remarks is either false or significantly distorted. Elon Musk, who ranks as the wealthiest individual in the world and controls X, has far too often used this platform to spread such misinformation. It’s a well-known fact that Fema perpetually struggles with insufficient funds, however, it’s incorrect to assert that Democrats are against its financing. Furthermore, the allegations personally lodged by Trump against Biden and Harris are unsurprisingly things he himself is clearly guilty of. In his 2020 presidency, he publicly stated that states with Republican-aligned governors would receive preferential treatment in the allocation of funding to combat Covid.
Applying the principle that Trump’s criticisms are essentially admissions, his words foreshadow the disarray that could overwhelm the 2024 US elections. It’s not just Trump insinuating that attempts on his life in July and September were orchestrated by the Democratic party. His running mate, JD Vance, his campaign team, and his various representatives, including Musk, also endorse this theory. It’s not just Trump voicing concerns that the voting process scheduled for 5th November will be manipulated. Musk, when standing next to him this previous Saturday, stated, “This election will be America’s last if you fail to vote.” Lara Trump, Trump’s daughter-in-law, referred to the election as a face-off between “good and evil.”
These sorts of contentious statements aren’t easily silenced following a loss. There’s an alarmingly large number of Republican followers who are convinced that unscrupulous individuals are conspiring to corrupt this election. It therefore follows that the events of January 6th, 2021, were not an anomaly. Trump has vowed to absolve the “martyrs” of January 6th and liberate the “prisoners” of this incident. This also serves as preemptive approval for those tempted to take similar actions. The prospects of Trump declining to accept a loss, should he lose, are greatly amplified considering the numerous postponed criminal proceedings he’s expected to face. Harris, having constructed her career around public prosecution, is unlikely to select a timid attorney general.
The primary strategy, naturally, is to triumph over Harris by whatever necessary means. In this endeavor, Musk provides a formidable support. Regardless of whether his involvement is driven by resentment – owing to his exclusion from a 2021 White House summit on electric cars as the proprietor of Tesla – or by his desire for tax reductions, his influence can’t be denied. He may also be on some sort of ideological journey. Musk’s online posts suggest that he subscribes to the “great replacement theory”, claiming that Jewish liberals are importing illegal voters to outnumber white Americans.
The essence of the narrative is that Musk’s unrivalled clout is accessible to Trump. In the context of the 2024 election, Musk can be compared to Henry Ford. It is known that the wealthy car manufacturer strongly supported Charles Lindbergh’s America First campaign, which had a palpable anti-Semitic tone, prior to the onset of World War II. The United States now confronts an impending crisis. Regardless of the election outcome in the ensuing month, it is highly probable that emergency aid will be indispensable. – © The Financial Times Limited 2024.