When Ronald Reagan entered the 1976 US presidential race, his platform — decrying Keynesian economics and Soviet détente — was viewed as too confrontational for Republicans and the wider public. However, by 1980, a shift in public sentiment made these once controversial policies seem quite reasonable. Yet, this shift was not in Reagan himself, but in the US population, who had grown weary of maintaining status quo and were yearning for a break.
Similarly, the UK may be approaching a change of its own, albeit not as urgently. The nation might feel fatigued by the current stagnation, but it doesn’t seem weary enough to initiate drastic changes yet. As a result, the next elections are likely to see the return of a government that essentially perpetuates the status quo, leading to another round of frustration before the public embraces a more challenging reform.
Considering the foreseeable course of the decade, it’s not implausible to predict that the Labour party would take steps to energise the UK, for instance, by easing planning restrictions. However, such efforts might be nullified by policies that inhibit growth, such as new labour laws and potential tax increases. Though there might be more government spending on public services to improve them, the lack of service reform could essentially offset these improvements. Consequently, the quality of life for the average person might not see much improvement from its present status. Assuming the pandemic and energy crisis have subsided, economic expansion might see a minor increase, failing to match the pre-2008 trend.
By the pivotal 2029 elections, public exasperation could reach a tipping point, making previously unpalatable ideas seem acceptable. Notably, as Britain heavily relies on trade, it might reconsider its detached stance from the huge single market right next to it, particularly when potential trade deals are scarce due to Washington’s growing protectionism.
Looking at the trend rather than the immediate circumstances, Brexit appears to be losing public support, with only a third endorsing it currently. Considering demographic dynamics, like younger generations becoming eligible voters while older demographics fade, it’s more likely that this support will dwindle rather than rise.
In this forthcoming election, the Conservative party remains notably quiet on the topic of Brexit, neither reflecting on past achievements nor laying out future plans. The Labour party, similarly, avoids reigniting discussions on the subject. This bipartisan silence is arguably a wise move, considering it may not be the right time to delve back into Brexit debates. However, one would have to actively ignore the signs to fail to see that this topic will likely resurface by 2029, possibly considering rejoining at least the customs union.
There are other potential changes on the horizon as well. Some suggest that the British state requires extensive overhaul. The public pensions’ “triple lock” is seen as an unnecessary financial burden. The welfare benefits handed out to those not currently in employment are considered inflated. UK may need to reconsider whether retaining all its current universities is a necessity. In addition, the inability of Whitehall to deliver a high-speed railway within time and budget constraints raises questions about its capacity to resurrect deindustrialised regions or focus on sectors such as AI. Various politicians are likely to be aware of these issues, yet they may deem the timing inappropriate for vocalising them, preferring monotony for a while longer.
As we look to the future, it remains to be seen who will spearhead these potential reforms. Will new, currently unvoiced opinions receive a platform? As for the prospects of a reformed and forward-looking Conservative party by 2029 – the jury’s out. It could be a third force, or maybe Labour leader Keir Starmer himself.
Prime ministers’ second terms of office – evident in the eras of Thatcher and Blair – are often the most defining. These leaders are compelled to consider how they will be etched in the annals of history. Despite some missteps, Starmer, possibly one of the more underestimated politicians in the democratic world, has displayed keen political judgement. His current tact might suggest 2024 isn’t ripe for national upheaval. Undoubtedly, when the tide shifts, Starmer is unlikely to overlook the change in the winds.
Drawing upon a comparable tale that features former UK Prime Minister Edward Heath during the same era as Reagan, I can highlight a relevant anecdote. In 1974, Edward Heath, a staunch Tory, appealed for authorisation to regulate trade unions – embodying the question, “Who rules?” However, the populace retained the existing regime, under Labour, for one more attempt. Only after this attempt faltered did Thatcherism get the opportunity to emerge.
What can we glean from this? It isn’t merely that Thatcher possessed a globally significant ability that Heath did not, but also it highlights the fact that individuals require time to arrive at their tipping point. A scenario that is unmanageable, such as a failing marriage or an ineffective style of governance, can continue precariously for an extended period, until suddenly it can’t. As the UK prepares for a crucial general election that stands to greatly influence its future, it first needs to deal with next week’s impending ‘mini’ election. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024.