Considered on face value, the year has been relatively successful for Mayo. Their league performance has been a fine balance between avoiding relegation and not risking an accidental final. After the experiences of 2023, avoiding a league decider was a top priority, a goal achieved without the concern of relegation, marking a decent spring spell.
So far they’ve played five championship games, winning four. Factoring in the about five-minute stoppage-time per game, it amounts to roughly 375 football minutes. They’ve trailed only 23 of those. The game they were trailing the longest in was the recent contest against Roscommon. They lagged four times, for a total of 18 minutes but concluded the match quite comfortably.
Whatever the outcome of the Dublin game this Sunday is, the worst-case scenario for Mayo is a home-based preliminary quarter-final next weekend. Their only defeat at this point was in the Connacht final match against Galway, where they held the lead for a significant duration including the stoppage-time. Over the course of that game, they fell behind four times but recovered quickly each time.
This suggests that Mayo is in satisfactory condition. They haven’t matched the standards of teams like Dublin or Kerry yet but are performing as best as they could. They’ve vanquished the teams they were expected to, and almost managed to overthrow Galway in Salthill barring some reasonable kick-outs.
Injuries are inevitable at this stage of the season, and the loss of Paddy Durcan is a major setback, but they’re certainly not the only team suffering from it. Their match with Dublin in the Hyde is anticipated. The venue is noted for being advantageous to them as mentioned humorously by Lee Keegan, given it’s where they often play against Roscommon.
Despite this overall positive scenario, opinions on their performance vary. As stated by Rob Murphy of the Mayo Football podcast, the perception of Mayo’s performance isn’t universally high.
Asserting that Mayo’s footballing situation isn’t as dire as some critics believe, it’s key to understand the differing perspectives in this situation. Firstly, the opposition and their players surely don’t underestimate Mayo – Pádraic Joyce’s vibrant celebration post the Connacht finals says as much. Secondly, Mayo’s own team appears pleased with their current status. Thirdly, their supporters might harbour doubts. Lastly, the analysts who criticise Mayo’s performance are in the mix too.
During the Roscommon game, I overhead a convo that seemed to insinuate that Mayo losing to Roscommon would be a surprising turn of events. This surprised me, because Roscommon hadn’t bested Mayo in over two decades. The wildly different reactions of Davy Burke and Kevin McStay at the game’s conclusion were indicative of the varied expectations at play – the difference in perceived reality couldn’t be starker.
Currently, Mayo ranks sixth in the Sam Maguire stakes, even as Dublin, Kerry, Armagh, Donegal, and Galway lead. Yet, if Dublin and Kerry pull away in July, Mayo might fancy their chances against any of the remaining teams in a quarter-final. It’s noteworthy that Donegal hasn’t reached the semi-final since Jim McGuinness first became manager, and Armagh hasn’t been in the top four since Kieran McGeeney’s playing days.
The essence is that Mayo’s season isn’t lost yet, despite the apparent low morale and optimism in their camp. Tickets for the anticipated clash against Dublin this weekend seem to be aplenty. Even with two of the largest fan bases in the game, the 18,000-capacity venue in Roscommon isn’t likely to sell out. Why though?
One plausible explanation lies in Occam’s Razor. Compared to the majority of the other 15 teams playing this weekend, Mayo isn’t in desperate straits. They may not be thrilling to watch, but they’re far from damned. That said, their glaring weaknesses aren’t lost on anyone.
In the field of football, vulnerable kick-outs still remain an unresolved issue for them. Their failure to advance possessively in three consecutive kick-outs beyond their own midfield in the Galway Connacht final was not just disheartening, but also unforgivable. This situation was especially bitter as it mirrored the same problem that enabled Dublin to pulverize them during the second half of the last All-Ireland quarter-final.
After the loss, McStay communicated in a news briefing that they weren’t yet adept in efficiently executing kick-outs like the leading teams. He confidently expressed that improvement is inevitable, crediting their dedicated players who are committed to learning and gaining experience.
Fast forward almost a year, and Dublin is now on the edge of anticipation. There is a possibility that Colm Reape will find himself striking the ball several times at Hyde on Sunday amidst the potential of all Dubs moving forward into Mayo’s territory. Based on the finale of the Galway game, it would be a challenge for him to withstand the pressure without crumbling, potentially leading to Mayo’s downfall.
Mayo’s troubles are not limited to kick-outs. There are longstanding weaknesses that have yet to be rectified. Among other Mayo managers, McStay has also struggled to leverage Aidan O’Shea effectively. While it’s commendable that Cillian O’Connor persists as a kick-off forward even into his 14th season, it is seriously disappointing that the younger players, who have been present since the early 2020s, have yet to surpass him. Ryan O’Donoghue appears to be the only dependable wild card.
Mayo seems to be showing more restrain these days, which may or may not be beneficial. It seems to be a strategic move by McStay and Stephen Rochford to prioritise possession and to moderate the intensity of matches as much as possible.
Should this outlook target any game, it would definitely be this one – over the past, Mayo has often lost matches against Dublin that became excessively irrational and turbulent. This approach might lack excitement but it might be exactly what they need.
In one sense or another, this appears to be a pivotal match for their season. Even though a loss wouldn’t be catastrophic, a victory would certainly set the stage for the rest of the summer. Undoubtedly, no one would regard them as inadequate at that point.