On Wednesday, Israel decided to shut its northern airspace as it anticipated retribution from Iran and Hizbullah in the aftermath of two major killings that took place just hours apart in Arab nations. Fuad Shukr, a high-ranking Hizbullah commander, was assassinated on Tuesday night in Beirut, while the Hamas political bureau’s chief, Ismail Haniyeh, was slain in Tehran where he had gone to attend the inauguration of Iran’s new president.
These incidents have put Iran and the influential Lebanese Shia militia in a similar predicament as Israel had faced post a Hizbullah rocket attack over the weekend that claimed the lives of 12 Druze kids playing football in Majdal Shams, a town in the Golan Heights. The challenge for them now is striking back without pushing the entire region into full-blown warfare.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has asserted that it’s Iran’s responsibility to seek retribution for Haniyeh’s assassination since it occurred on Iranian grounds. He accused Israel of provoking a significant retaliatory strike.
The high-profile assassinations of leaders from Hamas and Hizbullah have resulted in a state of shock and unsettlement across the Middle East. Israel, meanwhile, is contemplating whether its show of power can lead to strategic success.
In a similar vein, back in 1972 when 11 Israeli sportspersons were murdered at the Munich Olympics, then-prime minister Golda Meir instructed the Mossad intelligence agency to pursue the Black September gunmen and chiefs liable for the act; the pursuit lasted a decade.
Israel has pledged a similar course of action in response to the Hamas attack that happened on October 7th. As far as Israel is concerned, all Hamas leaders and militants involved are seen as potential targets, wherever they may be. This includes Haniyeh, who is the fourth individual from the top-six Hamas leadership to have been killed since October 7th.
Hamas’ assault on October 7th compromised the deterrent capacity of Israel’s defence and intelligence. The effort to re-establish this deterrent is currently in progress. As the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) approach day 300 of the war in Gaza, they have successfully eliminated virtually all Hamas battalions throughout the coastal territory, although sporadic guerrilla attacks by militants persist.
Israel’s ability to complete two successful assassinations within a 24-hour window has further demonstrated its intelligence agency’s potency.
Former IDF military intelligence head and retired Maj Gen Amos Yadlin likens Israel’s recent successes to winning two 100m gold medals in the midst of the Olympic Games, but cautions that it’s a drawn-out marathon.
For the majority of Israelis, these twin attacks are part and parcel of the necessary steps towards re-establishing national deterrence and self-assurance, as well as uplifting a dejected populace.
However, the question remains: can Israel transform these tactical gains into a comprehensive strategy to end the conflict, secure the release of Israeli hostages in Gaza, and enable displaced residents to return home? Leadership wisdom is required to strategise beyond hollow proclamations of ‘absolute victory’.