On Saturday, Israel successfully defended against large-scale drone and missile attacks originating from Iran. This success was attributed to an amalgamation of the nation’s state-of-the-art aerial defences and support drawn from allied Western and Arab nations. However, concerns have been raised about the sustainability of these supports, especially if Israel undertakes a significant counterstrike on Tehran, a move that may inflame regional conflicts, an outcome its allies wish to avoid.
Despite Israel’s multiple-layered Aerial Defence Array thwarting the majority of Iran’s missiles and diesel-powered drones over the weekend, Iran and its associates maintain an arsenal of missiles and drones, reportedly in the tens of thousands. If a full-scale war breaks out, even Israeli military high command acknowledges the likelihood of some of these artefacts breaking landfall, especially if numerous salvoes were launched in quick succession from manifold directions by Iran-armed operatives in Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq.
Such an attack parallels the harsh reality experienced by another Western ally, Ukraine. In a video message on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy demonstrated empathy with Israel’s plight while deploring Iran’s assault on the Jewish state. He seized the opportunity to appeal for similar assistance from Western leaders to what Israel had received.
Towards the end of last year, Ukrainian air defences successfully intercepted the majority of Russia’s air assaults, employing weaponry akin to that used by Iran over the weekend. However, Ukraine’s defensive resources have been significantly eroded due to the incessant onslaught of enemy missiles, and last week failed to counteract a substantial fraction of a volley which led to the demolition of Kyiv’s largest power station.
Zelenskiy emphasised in the video that “Words do not stop drones and intercept missiles. Only tangible assistance does.” This necessity for consistent and practical aid forms the heart of the predicament faced by Israel’s War Cabinet regarding potential retaliation to Iran’s provocation. Iran has issued a stern warning stating that should Israel retaliate; its subsequent reprisal “will be noticeably more severe.”
However, prominent nations including the US, UK, and France have expressed their unwillingness to support Israel in a retaliatory procedure against Iran, advocating discretion in light of the relatively superficial impact of Iran’s initial assault.
The ex-defence secretary of the United Kingdom, Ben Wallace, emphasised that partnership is a two-way process. He brought up the fact that when Ukraine was first assaulted by Russia, signalling the start of a full-blown war against Kyiv, Israel declined to help Ukraine, despite Zelensky’s plea for the Iron Dome air defence system. Drawing attention to the close ties of Iran and Russia, he said that another Jewish president, Zelensky, must be helped.
Over the last weekend, Israel was attacked on a large scale by Iran; around 170 drones, more than 30 cruise missiles, and close to 120 ballistic missiles were launched from Tehran. These were released in timed waves, which meant that all the missiles reached Israel within a span of 10 minutes, according to the data from the Institute for the Study of War.
However, contrary to the recent Russian assaults on Ukraine, Israel could intercept almost all the missiles and drones from Iran. This was made possible not just because of Israel’s robust and multilayered air defences, which were largely funded by the US military, but also due to the substantial aid of a US-led coalition and the fact that the Iranian missile discharge was pre-signalled, giving adequate time for preparation against the attack.
Apart from Israel’s own air defences, US and UK jet fighters also played a significant role in the defence. They teamed up with Jordanian air defences to eliminate many drones and missiles before they could reach Israel’s borders. Intelligence and radar alerts from varied regional locations were coordinated by the US military’s Centcom, which was expanded to include Israel in 2021. Almost one-third of the incoming missiles and drones were eradicated.
Franz-Stefan Gady, an associate fellow at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, remarked that Israel had defended itself in ideal conditions over the weekend from a single punitive strike. Nevertheless, the possibility of Israel’s air defences being overwhelmed in case of continued warfare loomed large, especially if Israel faced several air attacks sequentially and in short intervals, which could possibly outdo any kind of air defence system. He pointed out that if this were to happen, Israel, like Ukraine, would face the challenge of draining its reserves.
The primary objective behind Tehran’s first-ever direct assault on Israel since the Islamic revolution in 1979, involved an attempt to incapacitate Israel’s air defences via the scale of the attack. This strategy mirrors Russia’s approach towards Ukraine where it employed significant attacks, such as about 500 drones and missiles that were fired in staggered waves over a five day period at the commencement of the year, according to Kyiv.
Wallace, who served as the UK’s defence secretary for four years before his departure in August, doubted the validity of Tehran’s alleged aerial attack capabilities, describing them as “fantastical” and saying they revealed a large “say-do gap”. Regardless, he accepted that the missile stockpiles of Iran and its allies, particularly the Lebanese group Hizbullah, were considerable in quantity, implying that they could achieve some adverse effects in a prolonged conflict.
Despite this, a number of Iranian ballistic missiles managed to infiltrate Israel’s air defences on the most recent Saturday. Denying US claims, the Israeli military said on Monday that only half of Iran’s missiles had either not been launched or had failed before hitting their intended targets.
Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, emphasised that Tehran’s drone and missile threat should not be understated. He highlighted that Iran contains the largest stockpile of ballistic missiles within the region, which is speculated to be in the low thousands.
A sudden attack employing multiple rockets combined with precision-guided missiles from Hizbullah could overwhelm Israeli defences, especially if followed by a direct launch from Tehran, he added.
Israel had to deal with overwhelming rocket attacks before, such as during an 11-day war in the previous year where nearly 5,000 rockets – with each launch consisting of 50 or more missiles – were fired from Gaza by Hamas.
The quantity of Israel’s missile reserves is kept confidential, but the rudimentary rockets of Hamas paled in comparison to Iran’s and Hizbullah’s more advanced missiles. However, during the assault, Israel exhausted so many of their $50,000 Tamir interception missiles that the US had to provide an emergency $1 billion funding to restore them.
The commitment of America towards the security of Israel remains firm for the time being. In spite of US president Joe Biden expressing his discontent with the conduct of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu during the Gaza war, the commitment to ensuring Israel’s safety remains unwavering from Washington’s perspective.
However, complicating variables exist. Primarily, there is a global inadequacy of interceptor missiles, specifically effective against ballistic missile assaults. These can be found in the Patriot and Arrow air defence systems manufactured by the US and Israel respectively.
Fabrication of more advanced versions can extend to two years and are costly. An ex-official of the Israeli military disclosed that, excluding the expenses incurred by the US, UK, and France in deploying jets, the defensive actions of the previous Saturday night ran well above $1 billion in consumed resources.
Simultitaneously, Israel’s Western associates are overstretched and have their own defences and fiscal budgets to balance.
In the USA, the approval of military aid packages by Congress for Ukraine and Taiwan is at an impasse. This also includes a $14 billion request by the White House for auxiliary funds for the Israeli military, intending to include over 14,000 interceptors, as mentioned by sources knowledgeable of the request.
European countries are grappling with attending to Ukraine’s military and air defence demands. Requests from Kyiv this year for a further seven Patriot batteries have been refused by several nations in Europe, despite them having 100 such batteries at their disposal, disclosed Josep Borrell, the EU’s chief diplomat.
While the public narrative is aligned with Israel’s right to self-defence, internal disputes are brewing about supporting Ukraine as opposed to Israel.
One senior European official posed the question of where the real strategic priorities lay, highlighting the incessant instability of the Middle East and the drastic ramifications of Ukraine’s defeat by Russia for Europe and NATO.
– Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2024.