Israel’s defence chief has indicated that any Iranian offensive on Israel will be met with a corresponding Israeli response. This comes amid rising fears of Iran seeking revenge following a fatal Israeli assault in Syria. The statement was relayed by Yoav Gallant, Israel’s defence minister, to the United States defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, on Thursday, as disclosed by Gallant’s team.
Consequently, due to safety reasons, the US embassy has instructed its personnel to avoid travelling beyond Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, or Be’er Sheva.
Following the Israeli-based attack on Iran’s embassy in Syria roughly 11 days ago where 13 individuals lost their lives, Iranian sources have stated Tehran is likely to react in a manner that averts major escalation, instead acting thoughtfully and pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza.
Hossein Amirabdollahian, Iran’s Foreign Minister reportedly relayed these intentions to Washington during a recent trip to the Gulf Arab nation of Oman, a known peacemaker between Tehran and Washington.
While the White House declined to offer remarks relating to any communication from Iran, they did specify that the US was not part of the embassy attack. Immediate commentary from Iran’s foreign ministry was unavailable and inquiries to the Omani government made during the holy festival of Eid al-Fitr received no immediate response.
A source with knowledge of US intelligence involvement was not informed of any message sent via Oman but claimed that Iran had explicitly stated their intended strategy for responding to the embassy attack – a non-escalatory approach involving several targeted offensives on Israel using regional proxies.
These ongoing diplomatic exchanges hint at Iran treading carefully while determining its reaction to the April 1 attack; attempting to dissuade Israel from future assaults while avoiding a military escalation that could pull in the US.
In a statement made Wednesday, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, mentioned that Israel would face punitive action, equating the embassy attack to an act of aggression against Iran itself. While Israel has remained mum on taking credit for the attack, the Pentagon has identified them as responsible.
The murder of a leading Iranian general in a recent attack has further intensified the current conflict originating from the Gaza war. without taking any explicit part in the turmoil of the region, Iran has been supporting groups launching offences from Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen.
Since the beginning of February, the US forces in Syria and Iraq have not been assaulted by Shiite Muslim groups, which have the backing of Iran. Not excluding the possibility, various Iranian sources have suggested that an attack on Israel might be launched any time by Iran-backed Axis of Resistance, a strategy that many analysts have pinpointed as one likely means of retaliation.
These sources have found that during his meetings in Oman, Amirabdollahian indicated Iran’s readiness to reduce tension, provided their demands are fulfilled. This includes a permanent Gaza ceasefire, a proposal that Israel has shrugged off in its bid to overpower Hamas. Meanwhile, Iran is keen on resuscitating the discussions about its contentious nuclear scheme, which has not seen progress for almost two years due to both sides blaming each other for setting unrealistic demands.
In addition to this, Iran has been seeking confirmation that the US would remain uninvolved if there were to be a “regulated attack” on Israel by Iran. This demand was, however, turned down by the US via Oman, according to the sources. They also suggest that Iran’s revenge attacks will not incite the US “since they do not want the US to get involved”, as per a source with knowledge of US intelligence, indicating that Iran will not instruct its proxy militias in Syria and Iraq to target US forces there.
On Wednesday, US President Joe Biden condemned Iran’s threats of launching a “significant attack in Israel”, emphasizing to Netanyahu that the US’s dedication to safeguarding Israel against threats from Iran and its proxies is steadfast.
In response to any attack from Iran, Israel has proclaimed that it would retaliate. Israeli Foreign Minister, Israel Katz, posted on X social media platform in Farsi and Hebrew on Wednesday that “If Iran launches an attack from their land, Israel will retaliate and strike in Iran.”
Experts on Iranian diplomacy noted that such uncompromising demands from Tehran are a common element of their hardball negotiation strategy. Nonetheless, these discussions highlight Iran’s aim to avoid a major conflict. Gregory Brew, an analyst at the Eurasia group described this as Khamenei being “caught in a strategic dilemma”.
“Iran has been urged to react in order to regain deterrence and establish trust amongst its Resistance Front allies. However, such a reaction could potentially provoke a more harmful and damaging response from Israel, likely supported by the U.S.,” was shared by an inside source.
Sources within Iran have disclosed that America has requested Iran to show restraint and offer room for diplomacy. They warned Iran that if there were any direct attack, they would stand in solidarity with Israel.
The same sources voiced Tehran’s suspicion that Netanyahu’s goal is to provoke Iran into warfare, which is why Iran’s potential counteraction might be a cautious one, aiming to prevent attacks on Israel’s soil and instead considering help from their allies.
The U.S. representative for the Middle East has been in touch with the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Iraq, asking them to communicate with Iran and encourage them to reduce tension with Israel, a knowledgeable source reported.
An informer, aware of the issue, suggested that the U.S. may be open to resuming nuclear discussions if such discussions could prevent a large-scale conflict.
He further commented, “If talks could minimise the danger of a regional increase of hostilities, dragging the U.S. into it, then initiating these discussions could prove worth the cost, even if no agreement is reached.” The source requested to remain anonymous.
Ali Vaez from the International Crisis Group expressed Iran’s predicament as trying to figure out how to respond in a manner that can save face without causing an extreme reaction.
According to him, “Israel is far more unpredictable than the U.S.” He also noted that the Supreme Leader of Iran is genuinely worried that an attack on Israel could not have the desired deterrent effect but instead ignite a counter-reaction he hoped to prevent. This information is from Reuters, with additional input from BBC/Guardian.
Thomson Reuters holds the copyright for this report, 2024.