The Middle East has profoundly been impacted and destabilised due to the orchestrated assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh, a political leader of Hamas, in Tehran and Fuad Shukr, a military strategist for Hizbullah, in Beirut, both instances carried out by Israel.
The assassination of Haniyeh in particular has led to the emergence of apprehensions about a large-scale regional clash. Haniyeh represented Hamas in discussions concerning a ceasefire in the Gaza war, mediated by Qatar. Moreover, Hizbullah had committed to halting its assaults from Lebanon into Northern Israel if a Gaza ceasefire was obtained.
A frustrated Qatari prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, vented out on X, asking, “How can mediation triumph when one party executes the mediator on the rival side?”
Both Haniyeh and Shukr were in their early 60s, part of the founding generations of Hamas and Hizbullah respectively. While Haniyeh was a practical politician and diplomat, Shukr was dedicated to waging an armed struggle against Israel. Both became renowned after Israel eradicated their forerunners. Following the assassination of Hamas’ co-founders Shaikh Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz Rantisi by Israel in 2004, Haniyeh ascended in rank. Similarly, Shukr filled the position left vacant after Israel eliminated Hizbullah military heads: Imad Mughniyeh in 2008 and Mustafa Badruddin in 2016.
Born in a Palestinian refugee family in the Shati United Nations camp in Gaza City, Haniyeh obtained a Bachelor’s degree in Arabic literature from the Islamic University of Gaza. He became involved with Hamas during the first intifada (1987-93). He functioned as the dean of the university before being consigned to head a Hamas office in 1997. He was the first on the Hamas list that won the 2006 Palestinian legislative election and assumed the role of Palestinian prime minister from March 2006 until June 2007. This tenure ended when Hamas took over Gaza in response to a coup initiated by its competitor, Fatah.
Haniyeh, once viewed as a moderate, led Hamas in its attempts to reconcile with Fatah until 2017. He was then succeeded in Gaza by a radical leader, Yahya Sinwar, a man who has spent over two decades in Israeli prisons. Thereafter, Haniyeh took over the political wing of Hamas based in Qatar and Turkey. Israel believes that Haniyeh cooperated with Sinwar in planning the attack that took place on October 7, which incited the war in Gaza.
Haniyeh’s right-hand man, Saleh al-Aruri, was eliminated by Israel in Beirut in the earlier part of the year. Haniyeh’s own post may be filled by the man who held the position before him, Khaled Meshaal, who could continue the ceasefire discussions. It is noteworthy that an attempt to poison Meshaal by Israeli agents in 1997 was unsuccessful.
Shukr, who originally hails from the largely Shia region of Baalbek district in Lebanon, was deeply immersed in military science at Imam Hossein University in Tehran and had a significant role in shaping the development of Hizbullah. Ever since the Iranian Revolutionary Guards trained Shia fighters from Lebanon to repel the Israeli invasion and occupation of Lebanon in 1982, Shukr has been an active combatant, planner, and leader, leading to the US offering a $5 million reward for information that could lead to his apprehension.
Shukr played a significant role in the bombings in 1983 that resulted in the deaths of 241 US and 58 French peacekeeping military personnel, following Israel’s withdrawal from central Lebanon. He was also a significant figure in the formation of Hizbullah in 1985, a group that forced an end to Israel’s occupation of South Lebanon in 2000.
Hizbullah clashed with the invading Israeli army in 2006, and since 2011, this militant group has amassed an impressive arsenal and its soldiers gained valuable battle experience by supporting the Syrian army during the country’s civil war. In recent months, Hizbullah has engaged the Israeli army at the border, thereby opening a second front in Israel’s conflict with Gaza.
The most senior officer among the 400 Hizbullah members killed in the recent period is Shukr, whom Israel alleges directed the rocket strike that tragically ended the lives of young football players in Majdal Shams, a town in the Syrian Druze Golan, under Israeli occupation.
Hamas, Hizbullah, along with their ally Iran, have promised retribution, yet any error in judgement may push the area into total warfare.