Israeli authorities are frequently issuing military threats against southern Lebanon in an attempt to deter Hizbullah fighters stationed along the boundary. On October 8th, Hizbullah, supported by Iran, launched rocket attacks against Galilee as an expression of unity with Gaza, following a Hamas attack on southern Israel. Occasional cross-border exchange of fire has ensued since then, but neither side has proceeded to declare a full-scale war, evading the risk of increasingly contentious regional clashes possibly involving Iran.
Around 60,000 Israelis have abandoned their residences in the entire border region as localities have experienced extensive destruction from rocket and drone attacks, leading to large-part destruction of forest and farmland. On the Lebanese border, the devastation is even more severe, with approximately 100,000 inhabitants fleeing. Israeli forces, meanwhile, constantly barrage Hizbullah positions, predominantly in the south but sporadically in Shia strongholds towards the north.
Despite peace plans proposed by the United States and France, Hizbullah is resolved to continue its assault on Galilee as long as Israeli military action in Gaza persists. Israel anticipates that the cessation of Gaza violence will pave the way for a settlement in the north, yet with the ongoing standoff regarding a Gaza truce and a prisoner release agreement, the risk of a large-scale escalation in Lebanon remains, potentially sparked by a misjudgement from either side.
The Israeli government is under pressure from relocated citizens to launch a widespread military campaign pushing Hizbullah beyond the Litani River, some 30km from the border. Israeli media has captured this sentiment with headlines declaring “The North is Lost”. Many Israelis have voiced their reluctance to return to their homes in fear of insecurity even if an agreement is reached. Preparations for the upcoming academic year are taking place in central Israel.
The Israeli defence forces have been preparing for conflict with Lebanon and announced last week the completion of their preparations. A confrontation in southern Lebanon would be catastrophic for both parties. Estimated to maintain around 130,000 rockets, including long-range precision-guided missiles, Hizbullah poses a significant threat to Israel.
In a recent Tuesday evening, a faction unveiled a video which ran for nine minutes featuring drone imagery of Haifa, Israel’s tertiary largest municipality located 30km from the borderline. The footage highlighted likely objectives, encompassing Haifa’s naval facility and Iron Dome anti-missile configurations. The conveyed intent was explicit; notwithstanding, Yisrael Katz, Israeli diplomat for foreign relations, asserted that Israel would not be impeded. Katz advised, “We are on the brink of altering our engagement approach vis-à-vis Hizbullah and Lebanon. In the event of an all-out conflict, Hizbullah could face obliteration and Lebanon would potentially suffer gravely.”