Iran finds itself in a challenging and nuanced position following Israel’s military strikes in Gaza and subsequent attack on Lebanon. Unable to protect its Lebanese ally, Hizbullah who has been under persistent Israeli onslaught for over a week, Iran is walking a tightrope. Launching its ballistic missiles at Israel may provoke a severe Israeli-US counterstrike that could lead to significant damage to Iran’s infrastructure and further destabilise its already struggling economy.
Iran’s position has been further weakened over the last 11 months as it has been unable to provide support to Hamas in Gaza. This is following the Israeli offensive in response to the October 7th attacks, an onslaught that has culminated in the deaths of around 40,000 individuals and extensive destruction within the Strip. Both Hizbullah and Hamas are part of an alliance led by Iran that is opposed to Israel’s occupation of Palestine and dominance in the region militarily. Another member of this group, Yemen’s Houthis, have been launching missiles at ships in the Red Sea, creating disruption in shipping. Concurrently, Shia militias in Iraq who are affiliated with Iran have targeted US military camps in Iraq and Syria.
The situation has been escalating since Israel’s bombardment of the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1st resulted in the deaths of 16 people, including a commander of the Revolutionary Guards. In an act of retaliation, Iran directed its missiles at Israel, but most were intercepted by Israel, the US and allied forces.
Subsequent Israeli actions against Hizbullah in Lebanon has placed Iran in an even more precarious situation. Particularly it is yet to respond to Israel’s alleged assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31st during his presence at the inauguration of Iran’s new reformist president Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran.
On Monday, Pezeshkian, while attending the UN General Assembly in New York, levelled accusations at Israel of inciting broader conflict and indirectly referred to Haniyeh’s assassination. He stated that western powers had advised Iran to refrain from retaliation alleging this could hinder negotiations for establishing peace in Gaza. Despite these warnings, however, he criticised the continuous acts of violence perpetrated by Israel. “But we never reached that elusive peace. Every day Israel is committing more atrocities and killing more people, old, young, men, women, children.” He emphasised that Hizbullah has responded by launching missiles into Israel in an attempt to pressure them to cease their military action in Gaza.
Pezeshkian is concerned that Israel’s attack on Lebanon might disrupt his attempts to foster ties with regional and western nations. Additionally, he strives to restore the 2015 deal where Iran agreed to restrict its nuclear activities in return for the removal of economic penalties that are damaging Iran’s financial stability.
Despite criticism from local hardliners who believe that Tehran will portray vulnerability and loss of deterrence if it doesn’t resort to military retaliation against Israel for its attack on Hizbullah, Pezeshkian and foreign minister Abbas Araghchi have initiated a diplomatic initiative.
They have informed their global counterparts that Israel must be made responsible for breaching Lebanese sovereignty and attacking Lebanese citizens. Israel’s actions have also been denounced by Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and Venezuela.
The European Union’s foreign policy leader, Josep Borrell, has demanded an “immediate ceasefire” and expressed concern about the potential for regional spillage.
The US, the only nation that can influence Israel, has granted it time to fulfil its goals by stating it will pitch “concrete proposals” to world leaders at the upcoming United Nations General Assembly this week.