Following two days of ceasefire negotiations regarding Gaza, hosted in Qatar, the United States submitted proposals on Friday evening in an effort to close the divide between parties. The response from each side is yet to be received.
Although specifics were not made available, it was revealed that the mediators, comprising representatives from the US, Qatar, and Egypt, plan to maintain their work on the details in the days to follow. This will include aspects related to hostages and Palestinian prisoners. A meeting between high-ranking officials before the following week’s close is planned, with the objective of coming to a settlement.
An individual with knowledge of the discussions indicated that the dialogue took place in a spirit of positivity. Upon the conclusion of the talks held on Thursday, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, the prime minister of Qatar, contacted the acting foreign minister of Iran, emphasising the necessity of stability in the region to facilitate continuous negotiations.
The mediators acknowledge the potential for an attack by either Iran or Hizbullah to derail the talks and stir up chaos across the whole region. Intriguingly, it seems Iran has decided to temporarily withhold its promise of revenge against Israel for the killing of the Hamas political bureau leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran. Iran does not want to be implicated in hindering a possible Gaza agreement.
Adopting such a stance also protects Iran from the tricky decision of opting for a military response which could trigger a destructive counterattack from Israel, potentially damaging vital Iranian economic resources or even its nuclear facilities.
Hizbullah, a Lebanon-based militant group supported by Iran, is in a parallel situation: it has sworn to retaliate for the assassination of its senior military official, Fuad Shukr, in Beirut, but fears that Israel may counter with strikes that will incapacitate Lebanese infrastructure and push Hizbullah forces north of the Litani river.
The potential barriers to reaching a ceasefire and hostage release agreement are numerous and varied. They encompass Israel’s occupation of the Philadelphi corridor border road between Gaza and Egypt, dominion over the Rafah crossing, the repatriation of displaced Palestinians to the northern Gaza Strip, an inspection method to hinder militants from retreating to northern Gaza, and the identification of the Palestinian security prisoners that Israel is expected to release.
The hosts have evidently gone all out to create the most favourable conditions for progress. Despite Hamas’ declaration that it would not participate in the summit, its delegates were present in Doha and have been consistently updated by the mediators.
In the end, the success of any potential agreement largely rests on two key individuals: the Israeli Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, and the newly appointed leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, who is believed to be currently in a tunnel in Gaza. It is generally accepted that if both parties come to the mutual conclusion that the time is ripe for a resolution, it’s presumed they could surmount their differences fairly easily.