A full year has transpired since the Hamas-led assault on October 7th, in which significant damage was dealt to Hamas and Hizbullah by the Israeli forces. Hamas’s operational efficiency as a systematic military organisation has significantly declined, resulting in reliance on guerrilla-style swift attacks and firing occasional rockets from a greatly diminished supply.
Hizbullah, often considered a stronger militia, has also encountered substantial drawbacks since September 17th, where the explosion of pagers carried by members sent shockwaves throughout Lebanon. It was closely followed by the targeted killing of senior leadership within Hizbullah, inclusive of Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, and further discomfort caused by a systematic territorial attack in South Lebanon, pushing back the remnants of the Radwan elite strike force from the Israeli northern borders.
Despite these notable military milestones, the reality of Middle Eastern politics remains unaltered. Neither Hamas nor Hizbullah shows signs of capitulation. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s idea of an outright victory is but an attractively presented catchphrase so far. The actual challenge before Israeli policy makers is to translate these short-term triumphs into political alliances that can deliver enhanced safety for Israel.
Islamic insurgencies in Gaza and Lebanon might have been weakened, but their influences have not been eradicated completely. Palestinians who escaped conflict in Gaza now confront another in Lebanon, a situation that has led to intense anger and frustration. Israel is reported to have ‘eliminated’ the newly appointed leader of Hizbullah, leaving possibilities for a ceasefire agreement. But Gaza’s humanitarian condition continues to deteriorate rapidly, highlighting the increased severity of the situation for those who survived.
Israeli residents, weary from an unending year of warfare, now anticipate that these military accomplishments will be capitalised into an agreement ensuring the release of hostages remaining in Gaza and an extended period of tranquillity along the northern border, encouraging the return of around 63,000 people who had to flee their homes due to constant rocket attacks.
Israel, however, is against an unconditional ceasefire on both ends but it could potentially agree to cease hostilities if adequate political solutions, backed by international assurances, to address their border security concerns are devised.
The first hopeful indication that the military exertions might be yielding results appeared when Hizbullah Deputy Leader Naim Qassem, one of the group’s surviving top members, showed support towards ceasefire efforts for Lebanon, without any reference to a Gaza peace agreement as a pre-requisite to cease attacks on Israel.
In relation to Lebanon, Israel is ready to conclude the conflic with a settlement in accordance with UN Resolution 1559. This is on the condition that there is a reliable mechanism to confirm compliance. The agreed resolution mandates the disbandment and disarmament of all paramilitary groups, and the withdrawal of foreign troops from Lebanon.
Maj Gen Ori Gordin, leader of Israel’s Defence Forces’ northern command, informed the mayors of border towns earlier this week about preparations for their return home. This announcement took the mayors off-guard as they felt it was too soon to make such claims. Avichai Stern, mayor of Kiryat Shmona, emphasised that no one would return until the threat posed by Hizbullah had been fully eliminated. He urged the military to focus on combat and securing a win, leaving decisions on the timing and method of their return to politicians and mayors.
When it comes to Gaza, any practical settlement with Hamas would necessitate the liberation of all hostages in a single operation as a gesture of goodwill to cease hostilities and withdraw troops. The rebuilding of Gaza would hinge upon its demilitarisation.
Regrettably, this potential accord may still be unattainable. Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, who was unreachable for a month, has reconnected with Qatari mediators albeit without adjusting any of his ceasefire conditions, including a complete Israeli military retreat from the Philadelphi route on the Gaza-Egypt frontier.
Sinwar anticipated the attack on October 7th would be a turning point, compelling Israel to engage in a war on multiple fronts with Iran’s allies. This current scenario has unfolded just as he envisioned, making it improbable he will strive for an agreement at this time.