For those who care deeply about the present and impending future of Irish democractic governance, an examination of the survey findings by the Electoral Commission should arouse great interest. This digital evaluation, which involved more than 3,000 voters, is part of an ongoing longitudinal study aimed at tracking changes in voter mentalities and actions over the approaching years. The results from the survey bring forth a myriad of enlightening revelations, some of which are comforting and others that could be sources of worry.
Clear indications of a rise in voter unpredictability were observed. A whopping 64% of voters who participated in the recent European Parliamentary elections disclosed that they made their electoral decisions just a week before the election day. Though the numbers for local elections were somewhat lower, it still emphasises the importance of campaign efforts in a political climate where usual party allegiances are fading away.
The survey also revealed comforting statistics. Six in ten responders believe in the diligence and ability of their councillors, and 70% consider the aggressive behaviour towards politicians as unacceptable. The same percentage disapprove of demonstrations held outside the living quarters of politicians. These data serve as a welcome contrast to what often appears to be the prevailing sentiment on online platforms.
On the other hand, issues related to the so-called “culture war” did bring to light a sizeable faction of voters expressing agreement with ideas broadly labelled as far-right conspiracy theories. Over a fifth of the respondents, for instance, believe that the “establishment” is systematically replacing the white Irish population with non-white immigrants. Similarly, they claim politicians are in favour of more immigration to usher in ‘compliant voters’ who would bolster their electoral prospects in future. Thirty percent believe that behind-the-scenes groups are pulling the strings, making significant political decisions, and that there are ‘covert attacks’ aimed at threatening or sidelining particular demographics via political policies. Voters who chose Sinn Féin, Aontú and Independent Ireland were found to be more likely subscribers to these conspiracy theories compared to those in support of other parties.
The figures provided are indeed alarming, but they should be regarded within their context. The responses received were due to fairly suggestive queries, which could potentially contribute to the obtained outcomes. Similarly, in some instances, these might illustrate the perspectives of individuals who doubt established narratives without necessarily indulging in complete conspiracy theories.
Yet, the fact that a certain share of the voters in Ireland, as well as in other places, are attracted to baseless and racially discriminatory conspiracy theories should not be shocking. The more disconcerting issue is whether such prejudiced beliefs are increasing, which is something future versions of the Electoral Commission’s research should provide insight on.