As the upcoming general election draws closer, interpretations of this week’s poll results are understandably concentrating on the competition among political groups. However, responses to other questions in the poll, particularly concerning the Budget set to be delivered by the Government in a week and a half, are worth discussing.
It is evident from the responses that by a large majority, the electorate’s main concern is addressing the issue of the cost of living. Immediately following this is the call for increased expenditure in public services. A subject that has been flying high in recent discussions, tax reductions, found itself lower down on the respondents’ list of priorities.
These results underline a consistent trend within the Irish voting public: a preference for investment in public areas over reductions in personal taxes. This sentiment has shifted the general political consensus towards the economic centre-left, a point that remains valid regardless of its repeated assertion.
Recognising this, governments, one after the other, have adapted by prioritising increases in spending whenever their financial scope allowed it. This is an approach that’s likely to be showcased once again on the unveiling of the Budget. It is also expected that the Government will recognise the electorate’s strong support for relief measures on the cost of living by extending the “once-off” strategies initiated in 2022 for a third year.
Finally, this week’s poll tapped into the voters’ desire for change— a term that has been in overuse within the political arena to the point it might lose its significance. The likes of Keir Starmer in the UK and Kamala Harris during her US presidential campaign have attempted to champion change whilst underscoring the importance of stability and continuity. Sinn Féin successfully utilised ‘Change’ as the buzzword during the last general election, and the party is undoubtedly keen on recreating that winning strategy going into the next one.
Notwithstanding, survey results indicate that a mere 38% of the electorate are advocating for a “revolutionary” shift, while a majority of 51% are inclined towards a “moderate” shift, leaving 8% who are apprehensive about any change whatsoever. These notions can be interpreted in various ways, although it demonstrates a preferred majority for gradual and minor amendments over a drastic upheaval of the current state of affairs. This is mirrored in governmental preferences, with an evident favouritism towards upholding the incumbent coalition or executing small modifications to its integral members.
The politician that appears to have most proficiently resonated with the present sentiment is the Taoiseach. Ever since assuming the position from Leo Varadkar half a year ago, Simon Harris has witnessed an astounding rise in his popularity. He is undeniably the top contender to head the upcoming government. This would be a commendable accomplishment for the leader of a party that has consistently maintained authority for over 13 years. Change, as one might perceive, is subjective.