There’s a widely prevalent belief among the British political community that the UK will never sway towards the extreme right. This belief is grounded in the theory that Britons are naturally sceptical of extremes and are practical by nature. Alongside this, the first-past-the-post electoral system is thought to maintain moderate politics. However, this notion, regardless of its validity in the past, no longer withstands examination. The ruling Conservative Party’s far-right wing, bearing resemblance to right-wing nationalist parties across the EU and the MAGA campaign in America, has been gaining traction since the Brexit referendum in 2016.
Presently, according to poll results, it appears the Tories are on route to a devastating loss in the general election set for July 4th. Nonetheless, even with an impending Conservative defeat, the threat from the extreme right isn’t disappearing. This week, Nigel Farage’s Reform Party unveiled its proposed ‘contract’ for the British electorate before the election, combining populism and a lack of understanding of the economy. The contract promises tax cuts worth £88 billion, funded by eradicating governmental waste worth £50 billion annually, and a £35 billion reduction in the interest paid by the Bank of England on commercial bank deposits.
These figures have been heavily criticised by most renowned economic forecasters. It’s probable that the Reform Party will secure just one seat in the upcoming election, likely the one Farage is contesting in Clacton. Even so, let’s not forget Farage’s time as UK Independence Party leader. Despite their limited Westminster election success, they significantly influenced then Prime Minister David Cameron to initiate the Brexit referendum.
The potential for Farage’s influence to expand is worth considering. Polls suggest that the Reform Party is running neck and neck with the Conservatives. Post-election, it’s plausible that a considerable contingent of Conservatives might see their future in forging a formal alliance with Farage.
A Labour Party in government would confront numerous hurdles. Sharp inequality combined with sluggish growth creates a politically hostile environment. The question of where Labour might procure the necessary funds for public service and infrastructure investment remains unanswered. If Labour couldn’t persuade the voting public, the appeal of right-wing English nationalism could increase, leading to potentially unpredictable repercussions.
Future events in the United Kingdom are not predestined. While the Irish administration would appreciate the more tranquil environment a Labour-led government might offer, attention must also be paid to the backing for Farage and the potential long-term effects on the Conservative party.