The government seems to be proactively tackling the acute hospital bed shortage issue, both politically and practically. The release of its acute hospital bed targets, including figures for each hospital, in proximity to the local elections could possibly be a concerted move, but it doesn’t lessen their significance.
The new report commits the government to introduce a further 2,997 acute hospital beds by 2031, making the total bed count added since 2020, 4,656, in addition to 929 replacement beds. This marks a significant increase, at an approximate cost of €245 million over a span of three years. However, ambiguity prevails as to whether a 3,000-bed increase is sufficient.
Despite the additional beds planned under the new scheme, the updated projection of 4,656 considerably falls shorts of the target established in the 2018 Health Service Capacity Review, which projected an addition of 7,150 acute beds by 2031. The said figures underscored that this requirement could be substantially moderated with suitable system reforms.
The gap between the new and the earlier figure isn’t reconciled in the latest plan. We are therefore led to assume that the decrease is due to an array of reforms that remain unspecified. The Health Department states that it has initiated a review of the 2018 capacity plan keeping in mind the considerable developments in health and the wider operational landscape.
Considerable demographic and epidemiologic changes since 2018 also need to be factored in. The Department, working with the ESRI, will probe the demand and capacity deficit projections till 2040. Whether this review will bridge the gap between the existing and 2018 target is yet to be seen.
Meanwhile, the HSE has relied on its own data and modelling to assign beds utilising the first wave of funds released. The department believes that this plan is in sync with the findings of the 2018 capacity review and takes into account short and long-term demand modelling. A more robust connection between evidence and policy would certainly be beneficial.