Yesterday morning marked a noteworthy historical moment as it was announced that, after over half a century, the Antrim electorate would no longer be represented in Westminster by a member of the Paisley family. The unforeseen loss of Ian Paisley Jr to Traditional Unionist Voice leader Jim Allister marked a grim end to the election night for the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). The only exceptional element was party leader Gavin Robinson’s success in maintaining his seat, a victory soon overshadowed by losses in Lagan Valley, South Antrim, and the North Antrim, the Paisley stronghold.
In stark contrast, the nationalist party, comprised of Sinn Féin and the SDLP, had a relatively predictable outcome, each maintaining their pre-existing seat counts. Sinn Féin can now claim the title of the largest Northern party at Westminster, despite its MPs not taking their seats. This fact will undoubtedly bolster the argument of demographic and cultural shift toward majority support for Irish unification in Northern Ireland’s headcount politics. But the reality is more complex. With SDLP comfortably keeping its two seats, nationalist parties once again constitute half of Northern Ireland’s representation, leaving unionism trailing by one seat. The Alliance party also retained a seat but in a different constituency. Hence, in terms of constitutional issues, this election has brought about little difference, but Sinn Féin would draw comfort from the absence of weakening support experienced south of the border.
The major revelation from this week’s election is the noticeable shift within political unionism, more specifically, the continued drift from the DUP. The party will likely use this situation to bolster differing viewpoints on their strategy moving forward. Should they attempt to win back the voters they lost to Allister by adopting a firmer stance on the Northern Ireland Protocol, potentially considering another withdrawal from the Executive? Or do their losses to the UUP and Alliance indicate a need for a centrist shift? Meanwhile, familiar pleas for unionist unity are already surfacing but, as history shows, these are likely to be dismissed once again.