The Paris UN climate summit in 2015 set an ambitious but, many would argue, unattainable goal of confining global temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the year 2050, a proposal that required considerable political negotiation. However, this commitment symbolised a significant shift in the world’s political climate crisis response.
Yet, what’s the current status? Regrettably, we are rapidly moving towards an increase of 3 degrees. Despite eloquent rhetoric and a plethora of pledges, a Guardian survey of the world’s top climate researchers reveals a gloomy prognosis. A staggering 77 per cent anticipate that global temperatures will escalate to 2.5 degrees higher than the pre-industrial levels, a terrifying level of warming, whereas 42 per cent predict it might exceed 3 degrees. A paltry six per cent hold out hope that we will meet the 1.5 degree target.
These 380 scientists, all of whom are principal authors or review editors of the UN’s colossal Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports post 2018, point an accusatory finger at political apathy and caution us that we are venturing into a hazardous and unexplored landscape. The profound interconnections within our global society imply that the influence of climate variations in one region, be it extreme weather, inundation, thawing polar ice caps, or pollution , will reverberate internationally due to food cost inflations, disrupted supply chains, diseases, and immigration. Should global warming hit 3 degrees, cities such as Shanghai, Rio de Janeiro, Miami and The Hague are predicted to be submerged.
To make matters worse, this week’s records from the EU Copernicus Climate Change Service indicate the average global air temperature last month broke the record for April – an uncomfortable trend considering this is now the 11th consecutive month of record-breaking temperatures.
Turning towards Ireland, despite governmental pledges, we continue to be the third highest per capita emitter of greenhouse gases in Europe. Current forecasts by the Environmental Protection Agency alongside An Taisce’s analysis suggest that Ireland will fall drastically short of its legally mandated climate targets for 2030.
The question now remains, when will we heed these dire warnings?