The seismic shift in South Africa’s political landscape brought on by the African National Congress’s (ANC) significant electoral failure presents profound difficulties for the party that has overseen the nation for the past 30 years, following their successful insurgency. Its fall from power raises pressing questions about whether the ANC, previously a comprehensive coalition under the leadership of Nelson Mandela, is capable of transitioning into a period of coalitions and forming associations with parties that were previously viewed as adversaries.
With the considerable decrease in electoral support, the ANC managed to secure only 40.2% of the total vote, compared to a nearly 58% majority in 2019. This slump was anticipated, considering South Africa’s charring unemployment rates, lack of basic resources such as electricity and water, combined with elevated levels of crime and corruption. However, the magnitude of this decline far exceeded expectations.
The disaster was facilitated and cemented by the state’s proportional representation system, which offers considerable representation in parliament to minor parties against the ‘winner-takes-all’ system. The main benefactor of this election was the disgraced ex-president Jacob Zuma, who founded a new party, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK)- named after the military wing of the ANC, securing 14.6% of the vote and taking over KwaZulu-Natal, the country’s second-largest state. However, MK’s potential alliance with the ANC hinges on the resignation of the current leader, president Cyril Ramaphosa.
The Economic Freedom Fighters, a far-left party led by ex-ANC veteran Julius Malema and securing 9.5% of the vote, could be another possible ally for the ANC. However, its radical agenda, which supports the seizure of land owned by whites and the nationalisation of the nation’s mines, despite appealing to quite a few ANC members, is likely too extreme for Ramaphosa and certainly for the uneasy business sector.
Despite the ANC chairman Gwede Mantashe’s statement doubting potential cooperation with the Democratic Alliance (DA), a centre-right party who secured 21.8% of the votes, such a coalition would be a more plausible scenario. Though, such a move could potentially endanger Ramaphosa’s hold over his party.
The ANC is currently dealing with unprecedented challenges and has a restricted time frame of a fortnight to address them before it unveils its presidential nomination to the parliament. The party stands firm on its policies aiming to uplift black communities through economic engagement, as opposed to EFF-inspired confiscations, proclaiming these measures as “non-compromisable”. Any potential coalition ally will have to concur with the recently enacted National Health Insurance Bill, proposing equal healthcare access for everyone. Ramaphosa is staring at a hard journey forward while the ANC acclimates to changing times.