A significant political shift is occurring in Turkey, with citizens challenging the authority of the nation’s autocrat president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The president experienced a significant blow during the latest mayoral elections in the country’s principal cities, marking his first significant political setback in two decades. This change in voter behaviour has elevated the Republican People’s Party (CHP), a secular opposition to Erdogan and his Islamist-based Justice and Development Party (AKP).
Erdogan’s loss extends beyond the cities, with his customary following decreasing due to the conservative, Islamist-oriented New Welfare (YRP), and an underperforming economy. Against these odds, Erdogan is presented with a monumental task as he prepares for the 2028 general elections.
The most conspicuous victory was Ekrem Imamoglu’s win in Istanbul for the third consecutive term. Despite Erdogan’s wholehearted endorsement of an alternative AKP candidate, the city’s 18 per cent of the national populace chose Imamoglu by a record-breaking 12-percentage point margin. Celebrations resonated through the night with citizens taking over the streets in cheering and singing.
In an overall view, the CHP surge in popularity captured 38 per cent of the national vote, up from 23 per cent during the 2018 general elections, whilst AKP’s support plummeted to 35 per cent. This occurred despite Erdogan’s attempts to manipulate state power against his adversaries while using the media as a propaganda tool.
This political shift is a stark contrast from the 2018 presidential election that witnessed Erdogan overcoming a six-fold opposition alliance helmed by a lacklustre candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
Erdogan’s controversial economic strategies coupled with rampant inflation hitting at 70 per cent, escalated interest rates, and citizens’ growing dissatisfaction with his autocratic rule appears to have finally chipped away his popular support. Further adversity in the form of a disgruntled middle class and frustration from the quake-affected populace has left Erdogan with a Herculean task ahead. Despite Erdogan’s unfulfilled promise to construct new homes for the earthquake victims who remain in shelters a year later, his support base has dwindled. Many of his previous supporters appear to have retreated.