Between 1994 and 2022, the average number of children born to an Irish woman over her lifespan has dramatically dropped from 4.06 to 1.85. This figure is considerably beneath the replacement measure of 2.1, required to sustain population equilibrium without needing immigration. This development counters the standard belief that “Ireland is inundated.”
An investigative study conducted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) examined birth and fertility rates in the 38 wealthiest industrialised nations. The study illuminated that fertility rates have fallen over half since 1960. The report signals that the increase in overall labour force participation across the European Union won’t suffice to counterbalance the declining working-age population.
A Lancet investigation of 204 nations and territories predicts that over three-quarters will drop below population replacement rates by 2050, with 97% expected to do so by 2100.
One piece of the puzzle in affluent societies consists of the surging average age of approximately 30 when women birth their first child, which has risen from 26.5 in the early 2000s. As the author of the report notes, more and more individuals choose to stay childless as both men and women find fulfilment outside of parenthood. Economic strain and housing crises also push young people to postpone starting families and to reside longer in their parental homes.
Reformulating attitudes towards immigration is crucial, as the growing proportion of older persons urgently necessitates an influx of younger workers to provide support. Across the OECD nations, the ratio of individuals aged 65 and above to every 100 of working age is expected to rise from 30 in 2020 to 59 by 2060.
The report indicates that encouraging higher birth rates through instituting family-friendly policies and support will be insufficient to fill the impending gap. Instead, the report advocates for more equal gender roles, fair division of work and child-rearing responsibilities, paid parental leave, childcare and financial aids, along with a heightened focus on the costs of raising children, particularly housing.
