During his inaugural international trip after commencing his fifth presidential term, Vladimir Putin visited China, showcasing the vigour and escalating importance of his alliance with Xi Jinping. Both leaders leveraged this opportunity to underscore their shared commitment to defend what they deem to be their valid security concerns against American economic penalties and defence-related dissuasion tactics.
Notably, the duo chose not to reiterate their previous declaration of an unhindered friendship, pronounced just before Russia’s incursion into Ukraine in February 2022. Nevertheless, a collective statement emphasised that the war has bolstered Russian-Chinese ties, ignoring pleas from the western world to distance themselves. In 2022, Russia leapfrogged Saudi Arabia to become China’s largest petroleum provider, with Chinese commodities supplanting numerous European goods in Russian markets. A significant portion of their trade, aimed at shielding their economies from western punishment, is now transacted in the respective countries’ currencies, bypassing the need for the US dollar.
In a rare display of forthrightness, their common statement accused the US of destabilising global peace and security through their policy of ‘dual containment’ against Russia and China. They vowed to enhance collaboration and joint action as a countermeasure against the US’s identified ‘unfriendly and unproductive’ behaviour.
Xi adheres to a policy of being neutral concerning the Ukraine conflict, though his diplomatic and economic backing has played a pivotal role in sustaining Putin’s war strategy. Despite not supplying arms to Russia, western nations have expressed frustration at Chinese organisations exporting dual-purpose components like drones, jet engines and semi-conductors with potential use in arms manufacturing.
The Ukraine issue is the most notable impediment to an improved relationship between the European Union and China, with Xi facing pressure from European heads of state. Xi supported Emmanuel Macron’s plea for an Olympic truce, however, when proposed to Putin in Beijing, the latter dismissed the proposal.
It remains unconfirmed whether China will participate in the peace conference in Switzerland next month, to which Russia hasn’t received an invitation. The peace plan proposed by Ukraine, which necessitates the total withdrawal of Russian military presence from Ukrainian soil, including Crimea, forms the basis of this conference.
Considering Russian military campaigns’ recent gains, achieving Ukraine’s total war objectives would require a complete military turnaround – a prospect that carries the grim likelihood of years of conflict and a steep human toll. If Russia were to be brought onboard for peace talks, the upcoming conference would need to attain a significant shift from Ukraine’s present stance.
Xi reaffirmed China’s dedication last week to champion a negotiated end to the conflict. He is singularly positioned to prompt Putin into responding to any action initiated by Ukraine. Advancing this would be beneficial for China, Russia, Europe, and most importantly, the Ukrainian populace.