Nato has begun preparations for a five-year military aid initiative for Ukraine, valued at €90 billion. This decision acknowledges two concerning truths: the stand-off war could very – or even likely – persist for another five years, causing catastrophic loss of life and finances. Additionally, there’s the ongoing risk that should Donald Trump regain the US presidency, this could lead to a slash in US aid, thereby negatively impacting the effort to stave off Russia.
Europeans were especially incensed a month ago when Trump’s campaign speech insinuated that Russia should be allowed to freely act against Nato members who did not meet Nato’s defence-spending expectations. Furthermore, they’re anxiously monitoring the ongoing blockage by the Republicans in Congress of a €55 billion aid provision for Ukraine.
During the 75th-anniversary ministerial meeting of Nato in Brussels last week, delegates mulled over the idea of “future-proofing” the alliance and the crucial need for long-term structures to aid Ukraine. The handling of Trump is another focal aspect of talks on who should take over from the current Nato secretary-general, Jens Stoltenberg, when he departs this year. Mark Rutte, the former Dutch prime minister, and one known to have had a working alliance with Trump, is a possible successor.
Stoltenberg, who conceived the Ukraine fund scheme, is also proposing that Nato should take over the leadership of the Ramstein Group, better known as the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, from the US. The group’s role is to align military aid to Kyiv from approximately 50 western countries.
Not everyone is in favour of the fund. The US and Germany express concerns over a possible escalation leading to direct Nato conflict with Russia. Questions are being raised, such as when does training Ukrainian troops to employ Nato weaponry tread into the territory of active involvement in the war. Spain raises concerns of duplicating EU roles, whilst Hungary, known for its friendly relations with Russia, is against any move that could potentially transform Nato from a defensive to an aggressive organisation. However, diplomats forecast that the required agreement will be achieved at the Washington summit in July.
While Ukraine is dealing with the repercussions of its own failed military push, which severely depleted its artillery and other weaponry without any significant territorial gains, the nation is in desperate need of arms, especially those suitable for air defence. Indications suggest that Russia, as it continues to strengthen its military capabilities, is planning another sizable attack. President Zelenskiy has warned that if the current halted aid package is not approved promptly, his forces may have to strategically withdraw, potentially placing key cities in danger of being captured. Despite the tranquil state of the westernmost regions of Europe, it might be all too easy to undervalue the imminent threat that many European Union members perceive right at their boundaries.